United States presidential election in Indiana, 2008

United States presidential election in Indiana, 2008
Indiana
November 4, 2008
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,374,039 1,345,648
Percentage 49.9% 48.8%

County Results

  Obama—40-50%
  Obama—50-60%
  Obama—60-70%
  McCain—40-50%
  McCain—50-60%
  McCain—60-70%

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Indiana took place on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Indiana was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a 1.03% margin of victory. Prior to the election, news organizations were split as some considered it as leaning McCain, or a red state, and the others simply considered the election as a toss-up, or swing state. None of the major news/ political organizations listed here actually made the correct prediction, an Obama win. On election day, Obama narrowly carried Indiana, which marked the first time a Democratic presidential nominee won Indiana since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

Primaries

On May 6, 2008 Indiana held its Presidential primaries:

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

  1. D.C. Political Report: Republican[1]
  2. Cook Political Report: Toss-Up[2]
  3. Takeaway: Leaning McCain[3]
  4. Election Projection: Leaning McCain[4]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Leaning McCain[5]
  6. The Washington Post: Leaning McCain[6]
  7. The Politico: Leaning McCain[7]
  8. RealClearPolitics: Toss-Up[8]
  9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Leaning McCain[6]
  10. CQ Politics: Toss-Up[9]
  11. The New York Times: Toss-Up[10]
  12. CNN: Toss-Up[11]
  13. NPR: Leaning McCain[6]
  14. MSNBC: Toss-Up[6]
  15. Fox News: Toss-Up[12]
  16. Associated Press: Toss-Up[13]
  17. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up[14]

Polling

Pre-election polling was always tight, although McCain generally had a slight lead in 3 poll averages throughout the entire general election, including the final weeks of the election. Rasmussen Reports never had Obama winning a state poll. In the last opinion polling before the election, conducted by Public Policy Polling (October 31-November 2, 2008), Barack Obama led John McCain 49% to 48%. The final 3 poll average gave McCain the lead 49% to 46%, with undecided voters deciding the election.[15]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $1,758,471 in the state. Barack Obama raised $3,400,475.[16]

Advertising and visits

Obama massively outspent McCain in this state. Obama and his interest groups spent $17,796,704. McCain and his interest groups spent $3,160,264.[17] The Democratic ticket visited this state 8 times. The Republican ticket visited 5 times.[18]

Analysis

Historically, Indiana has been the most Republican state in the Great Lakes region. However, polling in September and October showed that Indiana was possibly turning into a swing state in 2008. George W. Bush easily captured Indiana's 11 electoral votes in 2004, defeating Democrat John Kerry by more than 20%. In contrast, most polls from the summer of 2008 onward showed only single-digit margins.

The race was as close as expected. Indiana's polls closed at 6 p.m. local time. The state has often been among the first to be called for the Republican candidate; in 2004, for instance, the state was called for Bush almost as soon as the polls in the Central Time Zone portion of the state closed.[19] However, the race for the state was too close to call at 6pm, sending an early signal of potential upset to voters throughout the rest of the country. Indiana still had not been decided when most media outlets declared Obama president-elect at 11 p.m. Eastern time. Indiana was finally called for Senator Obama at around 6 a.m. Eastern on November 5. Ultimately, Obama ended up carrying Indiana by 1,374,039 votes to John McCain's 1,345,648 votes, a difference of 28,391 votes (approximately 1.03% of the total votes cast). The Libertarian candidate polled 29,257 votes - more than the margin of Obama's win.

At the same time as Obama captured Indiana's 11 electoral votes, incumbent Republican Governor Mitch Daniels was reelected to a second term with 57.84% of the vote over Democrat Jill Long Thompson who received 40.04%. Libertarian Andy Horning received 2.12%. At the state level, Democrats picked up one seat in the Indiana House of Representatives.

Results

2008 United States presidential election in Indiana[20]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Barack Obama 1,374,039 49.85% +10.59%
Republican John McCain 1,345,648 48.82% -11.13%
Libertarian Bob Barr 29,257 1.06% +0.36%
No party Others 7,396 0.27% —
Plurality 28,391 1.03%
Turnout 2,756,340 58.8%

Results breakdown

By county

Obama won only 15 of Indiana's counties compared to 77 for McCain.[21] However those 15 counties make up 44% of the state's population. Obama carried the state largely by trouncing McCain in Marion County, home to increasingly Democratic Indianapolis, by over 106,000 votes. Kerry narrowly won Marion County in 2004; prior to that it last supported a Democrat in 1964. Obama also won in Vigo County, home to Terre Haute and a noted bellwether; it has voted for the winner of every presidential election all but twice since 1892.[22] Not a single county voted more Republican in the 2008 election than in 2004.

Obama also dominated Gary and northwestern Indiana, traditionally the most Democratic region of the state. Many of the voters in this area already knew Obama, as this region makes up most of the Indiana side of the Chicago metropolitan area and the Chicago media market; Obama is from Chicago and has aired ads here for over a decade (dating to his tenure in the Illinois Senate). He also did very well in counties where colleges and universities are located, including St. Joseph (home to South Bend and Notre Dame), Vigo (home to Terre Haute and Indiana State University, Rose–Hulman Institute of Technology, and Saint Mary-of-the-Woods College) Monroe (home to Bloomington and IU), Delaware (home to Muncie and Ball State), Tippecanoe (home to West Lafayette and Purdue), and Porter (home to Valparaiso and Valparaiso University).[23]

McCain dominated Indianapolis's traditionally heavily Republican suburbs, although Obama reduced the Republican margin from past presidential elections.[24] McCain also did well in Southern Indiana. Obama only managed to win three counties in this region, one of which was Vanderburgh County, where the city of Evansville is located.

County Obama Votes McCain Votes Others Votes Total
Adams 36.5% 4,928 62.2% 8,404 1.3% 181 13,513
Allen 47.3% 71,263 51.7% 77,793 1.0% 1,491 150,324
Bartholomew 43.7% 13,567 55.0% 17,067 1.3% 409 31,043
Benton 41.0% 1,563 57.2% 2,183 1.8% 68 3,814
Blackford 49.2% 2,677 49.4% 2,690 1.4% 74 5,441
Boone 36.6% 9,752 62.4% 16,622 1.0% 273 26,647
Brown 47.8% 3,854 50.4% 4,060 1.8% 141 8,055
Carroll 42.8% 3,736 55.6% 4,858 1.6% 142 8,736
Cass 44.8% 7,011 53.3% 8,346 1.9% 296 15,653
Clark 46.0% 21,953 53.1% 25,326 0.9% 446 47,725
Clay 43.5% 4,954 55.0% 6,267 1.5% 174 11,395
Clinton 47.9% 5,307 55.8% 6,919 1.3% 166 12,392
Crawford 48.2% 2,286 50.4% 2,393 1.4% 65 4,744
Daviess 31.8% 3,370 67.1% 7,098 1.1% 118 10,586
Dearborn 32.1% 7,123 67.0% 14,886 0.9% 208 22,217
Decatur 37.1% 3,892 61.5% 6,449 1.4% 147 10,488
DeKalb 41.9% 7,175 57.0% 9,780 1.1% 194 17,149
Delaware 57.0% 28,384 41.9% 20,916 1.1% 563 49,863
Dubois 47.1% 8,748 51.3% 9,526 1.6% 291 18,565
Elkhart 44.0% 31,398 55.1% 39,396 0.9% 664 71,458
Fayette 46.4% 4,389 52.0% 4,917 1.6% 156 9,462
Floyd 44.5% 16,263 54.6% 19,957 0.9% 317 36,537
Fountain 41.8% 3,094 56.1% 4,158 2.1% 158 7,410
Franklin 32.1% 3,404 66.1% 7,018 1.8% 188 10,610
Fulton 41.1% 3,702 57.2% 5,147 1.7% 157 9,006
Gibson 42.8% 6,455 55.9% 8,449 1.3% 191 15,095
Grant 43.0% 11,293 56.0% 14,734 1.0% 272 26,299
Greene 41.9% 5,709 56.4% 7,691 1.7% 229 13,629
Hamilton 38.6% 49,704 60.7% 78,401 0.7% 959 129,064
Hancock 34.7% 11,874 64.2% 22,008 1.1% 371 34,253
Harrison 40.3% 7,288 58.3% 10,551 1.4% 252 18,091
Hendricks 37.8% 24,548 61.2% 39,728 1.0% 679 64,955
Henry 47.2% 10,059 51.1% 10,896 1.7% 364 21,319
Howard 46.3% 17,871 52.4% 20,248 1.3% 505 38,624
Huntington 35.8% 5,843 63.0% 10,291 1.2% 194 16,328
Jackson 42.3% 7,354 56.0% 9,726 1.7% 294 17,374
Jasper 39.2% 5,044 59.8% 7,669 1.3% 162 12,875
Jay 45.1% 3,748 52.9% 4,401 2.0% 166 8,315
Jefferson 46.4% 6,255 52.3% 7,053 1.3% 182 13,490
Jennings 44.9% 5,312 52.9% 6,261 2.2% 266 11,839
Johnson 36.8% 21,553 62.2% 36,487 1.0% 604 58,644
Knox 46.1% 7,569 52.6% 8,639 1.3% 216 16,424
Kosciusko 30.6% 9,236 68.0% 20,488 1.4% 410 30,134
LaGrange 38.6% 3,663 60.1% 5,702 1.3% 126 9,491
Lake 66.7% 139,301 32.5% 67,742 0.8% 1,714 208,757
LaPorte 60.2% 28,258 38.2% 17,918 1.6% 743 46,919
Lawrence 38.9% 7,208 59.4% 11,018 1.7% 308 18,534
Madison 52.6% 30,152 46.0% 26,403 1.4% 785 57,340
Marion 63.8% 241,987 35.4% 134,313 0.8% 3,062 379,362
Marshall 42.5% 7,889 56.1% 10,406 1.4% 255 18,550
Martin 34.8% 1,706 63.7% 3,122 1.5% 75 4,903
Miami 39.4% 5,564 58.9% 8,312 1.7% 237 14,113
Monroe 65.6% 41,450 33.4% 21,118 1.0% 647 63,215
Montgomery 39.3% 6,013 59.3% 9,060 1.4% 212 15,285
Morgan 35.9% 10,330 62.9% 18,129 1.2% 352 28,811
Newton 43.4% 2,625 54.6% 3,301 2.0% 119 6,045
Noble 41.6% 7,064 57.0% 9,673 1.4% 237 16,974
Ohio 39.7% 1,158 58.7% 1,713 1.6% 47 2,918
Orange 41.9% 3,390 56.1% 4,536 2.0% 160 8,086
Owen 43.7% 3,570 54.0% 4,415 2.3% 185 8,170
Parke 42.0% 2,924 56.1% 3,909 1.9% 131 6,964
Perry 60.6% 5,141 37.7% 3,202 1.7% 147 8,490
Pike 44.8% 2,700 53.4% 3,221 1.8% 107 6,028
Porter 53.0% 39,178 45.8% 33,857 1.2% 881 73,916
Posey 45.6% 5,828 53.3% 6,804 1.1% 139 12,771
Pulaski 41.3% 2,466 56.8% 3,388 1.8% 110 5,964
Putnam 43.3% 6,334 55.2% 8,086 1.5% 226 14,646
Randolph 44.8% 4,839 53.5% 5,788 1.7% 181 10,808
Ripley 34.4% 4,187 63.9% 7,794 1.7% 207 12,188
Rush 42.3% 3,229 56.0% 4,271 1.7% 129 7,629
St. Joseph 58.0% 68,710 41.0% 48,510 1.0% 1,169 118,389
Scott 48.1% 4,271 50.1% 4,445 1.8% 161 8,877
Shelby 39.8% 6,987 58.8% 10,333 1.4% 254 17,574
Spencer 49.5% 5,039 49.1% 5,001 1.4% 141 10,181
Starke 50.5% 4,778 47.2% 4,473 2.3% 215 9,466
Steuben 44.5% 6,284 54.2% 7,674 1.3% 188 14,146
Sullivan 48.8% 4,284 49.4% 4,343 1.8% 155 8,782
Switzerland 45.0% 1,638 53.3% 1,940 1.7% 62 3,640
Tippecanoe 55.2% 37,781 43.6% 29,822 1.2% 833 68,436
Tipton 41.5% 3,250 56.9% 4,452 1.6% 125 7,827
Union 36.6% 1,224 61.5% 2,061 1.9% 63 3,348
Vanderburgh 50.8% 39,423 48.3% 37,512 0.9% 721 77,656
Vermillion 56.1% 4,003 42.2% 3,010 1.7% 122 7,135
Vigo 57.3% 25,040 41.5% 18,121 1.2% 545 43,706
Wabash 39.3% 5,456 59.4% 8,238 1.3% 177 13,871
Warren 43.9% 1,755 54.2% 2,166 1.9% 77 3,998
Warrick 43.0% 12,329 55.9% 16,013 1.1% 323 28,665
Washington 40.4% 4,562 57.6% 6,519 2.0% 224 11,305
Wayne 47.1% 13,459 51.0% 14,558 1.9% 545 28,562
Wells 33.7% 4,403 65.0% 8,504 1.3% 166 13,073
White 45.0% 4,839 53.2% 5,731 1.8% 197 10,767
Whitley 38.6% 5,862 60.1% 9,124 1.3% 202 15,188

By congressional district

Despite the fact that Barack Obama won the popular vote and carried the state’s 11 electoral votes, John McCain carried six congressional districts in Indiana, including all four held by Republicans and two held by Democrats.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 37.38% 61.76% Pete Visclosky
2nd 44.72% 54.10% Joe Donnelly
3rd 56.22% 42.84% Mark Souder
4th 55.90% 43.03% Steve Buyer
5th 58.90% 39.79% Dan Burton
6th 52.46% 46.18% Mike Pence
7th 28.35% 70.89% André Carson
8th 51.30% 47.41% Brad Ellsworth
9th 49.70% 49.06% Baron Hill

Electors

Technically the voters of Indiana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Indiana is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[25] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[26]

  1. Jeffrey L. Chidester
  2. Butch Morgan
  3. Michelle Boxell
  4. Charlotte Martin
  5. Jerry J. Lux
  6. Connie Southworth
  7. Alan P. Hogan
  8. Myrna E. Brown
  9. Clarence Benjamin Leatherbury
  10. Daniel J. Parker
  11. Cordelia Lewis Burks

References

  1. ↑ D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries
  2. ↑ Presidential | The Cook Political Report Archived May 5, 2015, at the Wayback Machine.
  3. ↑ Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
  4. ↑ Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results
  5. ↑ Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
  6. 1 2 3 4 Based on Takeaway
  7. ↑ POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
  8. ↑ RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
  9. ↑ CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 Archived June 14, 2009, at the Wayback Machine.
  10. ↑ "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  11. ↑ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  12. ↑ "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. 2010-04-27.
  13. ↑ roadto270
  14. ↑ Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
  15. ↑ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  16. ↑ Presidential Campaign Finance
  17. ↑ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  18. ↑ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  19. ↑ 2004 election night timeline from Dave Leip's Presidential election atlas
  20. ↑ "Indiana General Election November 4, 2008, Statewide". Indiana Secretary of State. 2008-11-04. Retrieved 2008-11-07.
  21. ↑ "Indiana General Election November 4, 2008, by County". Indiana Secretary of State. 2008-11-04. Retrieved 2008-11-07.
  22. ↑ "Obama leads in bellwether Vigo Co.". Indianapolis Star. 2008-11-04. Retrieved 2008-11-12.
  23. ↑ "'At this defining moment, change has come to America'". Indianapolis Star. 2008-11-05. Retrieved 2008-11-05.
  24. ↑ "Obama gains in fast-growing counties". Politico. 2008-11-09. Retrieved 2008-11-10.
  25. ↑ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
  26. ↑ "Electoral College Information". Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita. Archived from the original on 2008-07-30. Retrieved 2008-12-15.

See also

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