United States presidential election in New York, 2008

United States presidential election in New York, 2008

November 4, 2008

Nominee Barack Obama John McCain Party Democratic Republican Home state Illinois Arizona Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin Electoral vote 31 0 Popular vote 4,804,945 2,752,771 Percentage 62.88% 36.03%

County Results   Obama—80-90%   Obama—70-80%   Obama—60-70%   Obama—50-60%   Obama—<50%   McCain—<50%   McCain—50-60%   McCain—60-70%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

Elections in New York State
Federal government Presidential elections 1792 1796 1800 1804 1808 1812 1816 1820 1824 1828 1832 1836 1840 1844 1848 1852 1856 1860 1864 1868 1872 1876 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Presidential primaries Democratic 2004 2008 Republican 2004 2008 2012 United States Senate elections 1789 1791 1795 1797 1801 1803 1807 1809 1813 1815 1819-20 1821 1825-26 1827 1831 1833 1837 1839-40 1843 1845 1849 1851 1855 1857 1861 1863 1867 1869 1873 1875 1879 1881 1885 1887 1891 1893 1897 1899 1903 1905 1909 1911 1964 1980 1986 1988 1992 1994 1998 2000 2004 2006 2010 2012 House of Representatives elections 1789 1790 1793 1794 1796 1796 1798 1800 1802 1804 1806 1808 1810 1812 1814 1816 1818 1821 1822 1824 1826 1854 2002 2004 2006 13th 20th 29th 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Special elections to the United States Congress 20th district, 2009 23rd district, 2009 Senate, 2010 29th district, 2010 26th district, 2011 9th district, 2011 11th district, 2015 List of House special elections
State government New York gubernatorial elections 1777 1780 1783 1786 1789 1792 1795 1798 1801 1804 1807 1810 1813 1816 1817 1820 1822 1824 1826 1828 1830 1832 1834 1836 1838 1840 1842 1844 1846 1848 1850 1852 1854 1856 1858 1860 1862 1864 1866 1868 1870 1872 1874 1876 1879 1882 1885 1888 1891 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Attorney General elections 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 State Comptroller elections 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 State Assembly elections 99th district, 2006 State elections by year 1811 1844 1846 1847-J 1847 1848 1849 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1870–J 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1900 1902 1903 1904 1906 1907 1908 1910 1912 1913 1914 1916 1917 1918 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1926 1927 1928 1930 1932 1933 1934 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1942 1943 1944 1946 1949 1950 1952 1953 1954 1956 1958 1959 1960 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1972 1973 1974 2002 2006 2008 2009 2010 2012
New York City Characteristics of NYC mayoral elections Mayoral elections 1917 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 Public Advocate elections 2009 2013 Comptroller elections 2009 2013 Borough president elections 2013 The Bronx Brooklyn Manhattan Queens Staten Island
Buffalo Mayoral elections 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
Syracuse Mayoral elections 2009

The 2008 United States presidential election in New York took place on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 31 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

New York was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with a 26.9% margin of victory. Obama took 62.88% of the vote to McCain's 36.03%. At the time this was the highest Democratic vote share in New York State since 1964, although Obama would outperform his 2008 showing in New York just four years later in 2012. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Located in the Northeast, a region of the country that is trending heavily towards the Democrats, elections in the Empire State are dominated by the presence of the heavily populated, heavily diverse, liberal bastion of New York City where Democrats are always favored to win. Despite the fact that Hillary Rodham Clinton, the former junior U.S. Senator from New York, did not receive the Democratic presidential nomination, there appeared to be no hard feelings in the state among her constituents as the state swung even more into the Democratic column in 2008 as New York's 31 electoral college votes went to Barack Obama.

Primaries

• New York Democratic primary, 2008
• New York Republican primary, 2008

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

1. D.C. Political Report: Democrat^[1]
2. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat^[2]
3. Takeaway: Solid Obama^[3]
4. Election Projection: Solid Obama^[4]
5. Electoral-vote.com: Strong Democrat^[5]
6. Washington Post: Solid Obama^[6]
7. Politico: Solid Obama^[7]
8. Real Clear Politics: Solid Obama^[8]
9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid Obama^[6]
10. CQ Politics: Safe Democrat^[9]
11. New York Times: Solid Democrat^[10]
12. CNN: Safe Democrat^[11]
13. NPR: Solid Obama^[6]
14. MSNBC: Solid Obama^[6]
15. Fox News: Democrat^[12]
16. Associated Press: Democrat^[13]
17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Democrat^[14]

Polling

Obama won all but one pre-election poll. Since September 15, Obama won each poll with a double digit margin of victory and each with at least 55% of the vote. He won the final Marist poll with a 36-point spread. The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 63% to 31%.^[15]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $12,582,856 in the state. Barack Obama raised $58,161,743.^[16]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $1,148,016. McCain and his interest groups spent just $7,310.^[17] The Republican visited the state 11 times and the Democratic ticket visited the state 4 times.^[18]

Analysis

New York was once reckoned as a powerful swing state with a slight Democratic lean. However, the last time the state went Republican was for Ronald Reagan in 1984. Michael Dukakis narrowly won it in 1988, but the state has not been seriously contested since then. It is now considered an uncontested blue state, and was heavily favored to vote for Obama by a significant margin.

Elections in the Empire State are dominated by the presence of New York City, a Democratic stronghold for more than a century and a half. It is made up mostly of white liberals as well as ethnic and religious minorities—all voting blocs that strongly vote Democratic. Obama won Manhattan, Brooklyn, and the Bronx by margins of 5-to-1 or more and carried Queens by a 3-to-1 margin. The only borough McCain carried was Staten Island, traditionally the most conservative area of the city. Obama's combined million-vote margin in the Five Boroughs would have been enough by itself to carry the state.

However, Obama also dominated heavily Democratic Western New York, including Buffalo and Rochester, and the Capital District (Albany, Schenectady and Troy), as well as the increasingly Democratic Long Island and Syracuse areas. Even when New York was considered a swing state, a Republican had to carry Long Island and do reasonably well in either Western New York, the Capital District or Syracuse to make up for the massive Democratic margins in New York City. Obama also won a number of traditionally Republican-leaning counties in Upstate New York and became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson to win an outright majority of votes in the Upstate (although Democratic candidates had been consistently winning pluralities of the vote since 1992).

At the same time, Democrats in New York picked up three seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2008. In the 13th district, which consists of Staten Island and part of Brooklyn, Democrats picked up an open seat that was vacated by former Republican Vito Fossella who resigned after he was arrested for getting a DUI. Democrat Michael McMahon solidly defeated Republican Robert Staniere by a two-to-one margin, 60.79-33.26%. His victory made the city's delegation entirely Democratic for the first time in over 70 years. In the 25th district, centered around Syracuse, Democrat Dan Maffei handily defeated Republican Dale Sweetland 55% to 42% for the open seat vacated by Republican Jim Walsh. In New York's 29th congressional district, which includes Canandaigua, Democrat Eric Massa narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Randy Kuhl by 1.7 points. This reduced the Republicans to only three of the state's 29 seats in the House—the fewest the GOP has ever won in an election. At the state level, Democrats picked up a seat in the New York State Assembly and two seats in the New York State Senate which gave Democrats control of the Senate and ultimately both chambers of the New York Legislature for the first time since 1965. This gave the Democrats complete control of New York's state government for the first time since 1936.

Results

Results breakdown

Geographic Breakdown

Barack Obama dominated in fiercely Democratic New York City, taking 2,074,159 votes to John McCain's 524,787, giving Obama a 79.29% - 20.06% landslide victory citywide.

Excluding the votes of New York City, Obama still would have carried New York State, but by a smaller margin. Obama would have received 2,730,786 votes to McCain's 2,227,984, giving Obama a 55.06% - 44.93% victory.

By county

By congressional district

Barack Obama swept 25 of the state’s 29 congressional districts in New York, including one district held by a Republican. John McCain carried four districts, including two districts that simultaneously elected a Democrat to the U.S. House.

Electors

Technically the voters of NY cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NY is allocated 31 electors because it has 29 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 31 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 31 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.^[19] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 31 electors were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:^[20]

1. Velda Jeffrey
2. June O'Neill
3. Dennis Mehiel
4. David Paterson
5. Andrew Cuomo
6. Thomas DiNapoli
7. Sheldon Silver
8. Malcolm Smith
9. Maria Luna
10. Robert Master
11. Pamela Green-Perkins
12. Helen D. Foster
13. Jon Cooper
14. Hakeem Jeffries
15. Richard Fife
16. Deborah Slott
17. Terrence Yang
18. George Arthur
19. George Gresham
20. Alan Van Capelle
21. Inez Dickens
22. Suzy Ballantyne
23. Alan Lubin
24. Bethaida Gonzalez
25. Christine Quinn
26. William Thompson
27. Stuart Applebaum
28. Maritza Davila
29. Ivan Young
30. Barbara J. Fiala
31. Frank A. Bolz

References

State results of the United States presidential election, 2008
Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming