United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2008

United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2008

November 4, 2008

Nominee John McCain Barack Obama Party Republican Democratic Home state Arizona Illinois Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden Electoral vote 8 0 Popular vote 1,048,462 751,985 Percentage 57.37% 41.15%

County Results   Obama—60-70%   Obama—50-60%   Obama—<50%   McCain—<50%   McCain—50-60%   McCain—60-70%   McCain—70-80%   McCain—80-90%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

Elections in Kentucky
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The 2008 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 8 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Kentucky was won by Republican nominee John McCain by a 16.2% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. In the primaries Hillary Clinton was slightly defeating McCain in the Bluegrass State. Once Obama secured the Democratic nomination, Kentucky was moved into the safe GOP category. In the end, Kentucky voted for McCain with over 57% of the vote.

Primaries

• Kentucky Democratic primary, 2008
• Kentucky Republican primary, 2008

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

• D.C. Political Report: Republican^[1]
• Cook Political Report: Solid Republican^[2]
• Takeaway: Solid McCain^[3]
• Election Projection: Solid Obama^[4]
• Electoral-vote.com: Strong Republican^[5]
• Washington Post: Solid McCain^[3]
• Politico: Solid McCain^[6]
• Real Clear Politics: Solid McCain^[7]
• FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid McCain^[3]
• CQ Politics: Safe Republican^[8]
• New York Times: Solid Republican^[9]
• CNN: Safe Republican^[10]
• NPR: Solid McCain^[3]
• MSNBC: Solid McCain^[3]
• Fox News: Republican^[11]
• Associated Press: Republican^[12]
• Rasmussen Reports: Safe Republican^[13]

Polling

McCain won every pre-election poll, almost all of them by a double digit margin and with at least 49% of the vote. The final 3 polls averaged McCain leading 56% to 41%.^[14]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $1,220,017. Barack Obama raised $2,394,198.^[15]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent $183,738 while a conservative interest groups spent just $212.^[16] Each ticket visited the state once.^[17]

Analysis

Although Democrats have a majority of Kentucky's voters, the state has traditionally leaned conservative. Since 1964, Kentucky has only gone Democratic three times--Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, both of whom were White Anglo-Saxon Protestants (WASPs) from the South, whereas Obama was an African American "big-city liberal" from Chicago.

Throughout the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primaries, Barack Obama experienced problems attracting voters in Appalachia, the mountainous region in which Kentucky is included. Kentucky supported Hillary Clinton over Obama by a margin of two-to-one in its primary election in which Obama only won just two counties - Jefferson County, which includes Louisville, and Fayette County, which contains Lexington. Exit polls conducted in the Kentucky Democratic Primary also found that just one out of three Clinton voters would vote for Obama in the general election, while 40% said they would vote for John McCain, and the rest wouldn't even vote.^[18]

During the general election, Obama opted not to campaign in Kentucky and preferred to spend his time and money and other resources in battleground states such as North Carolina and Indiana. Opinion polling in Kentucky showed McCain leading the state safely over Obama.^[19]

McCain carried Kentucky by 16.22 points on Election Day, although his margin of victory was slightly smaller than George W. Bush's in 2004. A number of counties in the state's southeastern coal-mining region, a union stronghold for more than a century, voted Republican for the first time since Ronald Reagan's 1984 landslide. These counties had been the bedrock of Bill Clinton's 1992 and 1996 victories. On the other hand, Obama did much better in the largest cities of Louisville and Lexington, improving upon Kerry's performance by double-digits in both.

Kentucky was the first state called for John McCain on Election Night. It was called almost as soon as the polls closed, an hour after Vermont was the first state called for Barack Obama.

At the same time, incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell, who also serves as Senate Minority Leader, was just narrowly reelected with 52.97% of the vote to Democrat Bruce Lunsford's 47.03%. Republicans also held onto an open seat vacated by Ron Lewis in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District. At the state level, however, Democrats picked up two seats in the Kentucky House of Representatives.

Results

Results breakdown

By county

By congressional district

John McCain carried five of the state's six congressional districts, including one of the two districts held by a Democrat.

Electors

Technically the voters of Kentucky cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Kentucky is allocated 8 electors because it has 6 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 8 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 8 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.^[20] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 8 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:^[21]

1. James Henry Snider
2. Walter A. Baker
3. Edna M. Fulkerson
4. Amy B. Towles
5. Nancy Mitchell
6. Don Ball
7. Robert Gable
8. Elizabeth G. Thomas

References

State results of the United States presidential election, 2008
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