United States presidential election in Colorado, 2008

United States presidential election in Colorado, 2008

November 4, 2008

Nominee Barack Obama John McCain Party Democratic Republican Home state Illinois Arizona Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin Electoral vote 9 0 Popular vote 1,288,633 1,073,629 Percentage 53.7% 44.7%

County Results   Obama—70-80%   Obama—60-70%   Obama—50-60%   McCain—<50%   McCain—50-60%   McCain—60-70%   McCain—70-80%   McCain—80-90%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

Elections in Colorado
Federal government Presidential elections 1876 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Presidential caucuses Republican 2008 2012 Democratic 2008 U.S. Senate elections 1980 1986 1990 1992 1996 1998 2002 2004 2008 2010 2014 2016 U.S. House elections 2000 2002 2004 2006 4th 5th 7th 2008 2010 2012 2014
State government General elections 2010 2014 Gubernatorial elections 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Legislative elections 2013 recalls
Ballot measures 2004 36 2006 38 41 42 43 44 E F G H I J K 2008 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 54 58 59 L 2010 62 2012 64
Denver Mayoral elections 2011

The 2008 United States presidential election in Colorado took place on November 4, 2008 as a part of the 2008 United States presidential election throughout all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Voters chose 9 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Colorado was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a margin of victory of 8.95%. Obama took 53.66% of the vote to McCain's 44.71%. The state was heavily targeted by both campaigns, although, prior to the election, all 17 news organizations actually considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a blue state. While George W. Bush narrowly carried the state in 2004, the Centennial State ultimately flipped allegiance to Obama.

Key to Obama's victory was Democratic dominance in the Denver area, sweeping not just the city but also the heavily populated suburban counties around Denver, particularly Adams, Arapahoe, and Jefferson counties, as well as winning Larimer County, home to Fort Collins. Obama also took over 70% of the vote in Boulder County, home to Boulder. McCain's most populated county wins were in El Paso County, where Colorado Springs is located, and Weld County.

Caucuses

• Colorado Democratic caucuses, 2008
• Colorado Republican caucuses, 2008

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

1. D.C. Political Report: Democrat^[1]
2. Cook Political Report: Leaning Democrat^[2]
3. Takeaway: Leaning Obama^[3]
4. Election Projection: Leaning Obama^[4]
5. Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Democrat^[5]
6. Washington Post: Leaning Obama^[6]
7. Politico: Leaning Obama^[7]
8. Real Clear Politics: Leaning Obama^[8]
9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid Obama^[6]
10. CQ Politics: Leaning Democrat^[9]
11. New York Times: Leaning Democrat^[10]
12. CNN: Leaning Democrat^[11]
13. NPR: Leaning Obama^[6]
14. MSNBC: Leaning Obama^[6]
15. Fox News: Democrat^[12]
16. Associated Press: Democrat^[13]
17. Rasmussen Reports: Leaning Democrat^[14]

Polling

Pre-election polling taken in Colorado prior to the election mostly showed Obama with a slight lead. He led every poll after October 5.

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $3,491,086. Barack Obama raised almost $11 million.^[15]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $10,410,669. McCain and his interest groups spent $9,818,077.^[16] McCain/Palin visited the state 13 times. Obama/Biden visited the state 8 times.^[17]

Analysis

Changing demographics and a growing Hispanic population made the state more favorable to the Democrats, although Republicans still had a hold on the state due to the party's conservative stances on social issues like abortion, gay rights, and gun control.

Colorado has traditionally voted Republican, turning red in every presidential election since 1952, with the exception of 1964 and 1992. Colorado supported George W. Bush in both 2000 and again in 2004, although by a margin of less than 5%. In addition, Republicans have mostly held control of the state legislature and most statewide offices since the 1960s. On the other hand, the Governor's Mansion has been held by Democrats for 22 out of the past 30 years. Traditionally, Democratic strength in Denver, Boulder and Pueblo was no match for Republican dominance in the Denver suburbs, the rural areas, and Colorado Springs.

Recently, however, there has been a growing population of Hispanic Americans,^[18] young professionals, and an influx of people from other states - all of whom tend to vote Democratic. These demographic changes have been causing the state's political ideology to shift.^[19] While Republicans continue to enjoy an advantage in voter registration statewide, Democrats have been closing the gap. There has also been an increasing number of unaffiliated, independent-minded voters.^[20] Since 2004, Democrats have won the governorship, both Senate seats, three House seats, and control of both chambers in the state legislature.

While Colorado had not been extensively contested in the 2004 election, Bush's narrow margin in that election and the demographic changes of the last four years led it to become a crucial swing state for 2008. Both Barack Obama and John McCain campaigned extensively in the state.

Several factors in the campaign favored the Democrat. Barack Obama did very well in the caucus, defeating opponent Hillary Clinton with almost 67% of the vote. On the other hand, John McCain badly lost the state to opponent Mitt Romney, who gained 60% of the vote.

Moreover, the 2008 Democratic National Convention was held in Denver. The publicity generated from the event provided a strong boost to Obama. According to Real Clear Politics polling averages, Obama and McCain were neck-to-neck through the summer and early September. However, as the 2008 financial crisis hit, Obama's numbers in Colorado jumped to over 50%.^[21]

During the campaign, several media organizations reported on voting machine problems. There was also reporting on the controversial practice of "purging" voter registration lists.^[22]

On election day, Obama won by a comfortable margin, greater than his national average. Obama improved on John Kerry's performance throughout the state. He won landslides in the Democratic strongholds of Denver and Boulder; in both areas, Obama took more than 70% of the vote. Democrats also do well in two other regions of the state. Along the Front Range, a number of rich counties dominated by ski resorts lean Democratic; in southern Colorado, a number of thinly populated, Latino counties also lean Democratic. By and large, Obama won these areas.

McCain did best in the rural, conservative areas next to Kansas and Utah, where he won landslide margins. Voters in more populated El Paso County, home to conservative Colorado Springs, gave McCain a 19% margin, though far less than Bush's 35% margin in 2004. In Denver's suburbs, McCain won Douglas County and Weld County, both by comfortable margins.

However, Denver's suburbs swung heavily to the Democrats. Bush narrowly won Jefferson County, Arapahoe County, and Broomfield County (in addition to what McCain won) - all three flipped to the Democratic candidate in 2008.

Thus, Obama was able to take landslide margins amongst the Democratic base while shifting suburban Colorado to the Democratic side. While he still lost places such as Colorado Springs, he greatly improved on Kerry's showing in those areas.

Elsewhere in the state, Democrats also did well. Democratic Mark Udall defeated Republican Bob Schaffer for an open U.S. Senate seats; his vacated House seat was also won by Democrat Jared Polis. In addition, Democrat Betsy Markey defeated incumbent Republican Marilyn Musgrave, by 12 points for Colorado's 4th Congressional District seat. At the state level, Democrats picked up one seat in the Colorado Senate, but lost two seats in the Colorado House of Representatives.

Results

Results breakdown

By county

By congressional district

While Barack Obama won the state’s popular vote and 9 electoral votes, John McCain carried four of the state’s seven congressional districts, including both seats held by Republicans and two seats held by Democrats.

Electors

Technically the voters of Colorado cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Colorado is allocated 9 electors because it has 7 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 9 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.^[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 9 were pledged to Obama and Biden:

1. Wellington Webb
2. Terry Phillips
3. Camilla Auger
4. Pam Shaddock
5. Jennifer Trujillo-Sanchez
6. Don Strickland
7. Ann Knollman
8. Polly Baca
9. Margaret Atencio

References

State results of the United States presidential election, 2008
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