United States presidential election in Ohio, 2008

United States presidential election in Ohio, 2008
Ohio
November 4, 2008
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 20 0
Popular vote 2,940,044 2,677,820
Percentage 51.38% 46.80%

County Results
  Obama—60-70%
  Obama—50-60%
  Obama—<50%
  McCain—<50%
  McCain—50-60%
  McCain—60-70%
  McCain—70-80%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Ohio took place on November 4, 2008, which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 20 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Ohio was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with a 4.6% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this state as a major swing state and bellwether. Both major party candidates visited the Buckeye State numerous times and campaigned throughout the state extensively trying to sway moderates and independent voters to their side. The polls in Ohio were fairly even throughout the campaign but Obama had a slight lead as Election Day drew closer. In the end, Obama flipped Ohio into the Democratic column.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

  1. D.C. Political Report: Republican[1]
  2. Cook Political Report: Toss Up[2]
  3. Takeaway: Toss Up[3]
  4. Election Projection: Leaning Obama[4]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Democrat[5]
  6. Washington Post: Leaning Obama[6]
  7. Politico: Leaning Obama[7]
  8. Real Clear Politics: Toss Up[8]
  9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Leaning Obama[6]
  10. CQ Politics: Leaning Democrat[9]
  11. New York Times: Toss Up[10]
  12. CNN: Toss Up[11]
  13. NPR: Toss Up[6]
  14. MSNBC: Leaning McCain[6]
  15. Fox News: Toss Up[12]
  16. Associated Press: Toss Up[13]
  17. Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up[14]

Polling

During most of the summer and September, McCain led many state polls and many by 50% of over. Rasmussen had McCain leading with as high as 51% in September.[15] But many voters in the state changed their minds as Obama later gained a steady lead in most polls taken starting in the beginning of October (around the time of the 2008 financial crisis).[16][17]

Fundraising

Obama raised $7,218,801. McCain raised $5,682,839.[18]

Advertising and visits

A major swing state, Obama spent over $28 million to McCain's $24 million.[19] The Republican ticket visited the state 28 times to the Obama ticket's 22 times.[20]

Analysis

Going into Election 2008, both McCain and Obama knew that Ohio was a crucial state. Earlier in the primary season, Ohio had given a major comeback victory to Hillary Rodham Clinton. Both candidates campaigned heavily throughout the state in hopes for winning its 20 electoral votes. As no Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, it was seen in particular as a "must-win" state for McCain. George W. Bush's narrow wins in 2000(by 3.50 percent against Al Gore) and 2004 (2.11 percent against John Kerry) proved critical in Bush's narrow wins nationally.

On Election Day 2008, Obama won the Buckeye State's 20 electoral votes by a margin of 4.59 percent. Obama's win in heavily populated areas such as Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Franklin County (Columbus), Lucas County (Toledo), Montgomery County (Dayton) and the traditionally Republican Hamilton County (Cincinnati) greatly contributed to his victory in the state.

McCain did best in the Republican base in the center and western regions, composed of relatively rural areas combined with Cincinnati and Columbus' heavily Republican suburbs. In addition, McCain won all but one county in the Appalachian southeast, mirroring the troubles Obama had throughout this region. On the other hand, Obama did best in the Democratic base—Cleveland (where he won almost 70% of the vote), Youngstown and the heavily unionized counties next to Pennsylvania. However, he was unable to significantly improve upon John Kerry's performance in these areas. More surprisingly, the cities of Cincinnati and Columbus gave him strong support. Cincinnati, the only major city that didn't vote for Franklin D. Roosevelt, voted Democratic for the first time since 1964. Columbus, a city shifting to the Democrats, also voted for Obama by a three-to-two margin. In addition, Obama won several northern counties along the shore of Lake Erie that John Kerry had lost in 2004.

As polls closed and results were coming in on Election Night, Republican strategist and adviser Karl Rove joined Brit Hume on Fox News offering analysis. Rove was discussing the impact an Ohio loss would have on McCain's chances of winning the election. "If he loses Ohio," Rove stated of McCain, "he goes from 286, which the Republicans carried in 2004, down to 266, and that puts him below the 270 threshold needed to win the White House. So he'd not only need to sweep the rest of these states which were won by the Republicans in 2004, he'd also need to pick up something as well." In an untimely moment, Hume broke in. "Guess what Karl," Hume interrupted, "I've just received word that the state of Ohio has gone for Barack Obama."[21]

Results

United States presidential election in Ohio, 2008
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 2,940,044 51.38% 20
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 2,677,820 46.80% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 42,337 0.74% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 19,917 0.35% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 13,682 0.24% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 12,565 0.22% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 8,518 0.15% 0
Others Others 6,843 0.12% 0
Totals 5,721,726 100.00% 20
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 67.3%

Results breakdown

By county

County Obama% Obama# McCain% McCain# Others% Others Total
Adams36.6%4,17060.7%6,9142.7%30411,388
Allen38.8%19,52159.6%29,9411.6%80150,263
Ashland37.0%9,30060.2%15,1582.8%71025,168
Ashtabula55.8%25,02742.2%18,9492.0%89844,874
Athens66.6%20,72231.3%9,7422.0%63431,098
Auglaize28.6%6,72769.8%16,3951.5%36423,486
Belmont50.3%16,30247.6%15,4222.1%68732,411
Brown37.3%7,50360.6%12,1922.1%41820,113
Butler38.0%66,03060.6%105,3401.4%2,406173,776
Carroll46.0%6,42350.9%7,0973.1%43313,953
Champaign39.1%7,38559.0%11,1411.9%36118,887
Clark47.9%31,95850.4%33,6341.8%1,17866,770
Clermont33.1%31,61165.5%62,5591.4%1,31095,480
Clinton34.0%6,55864.3%12,4101.8%33819,306
Columbiana45.1%21,88252.8%25,5852.1%1,02048,487
Coshocton45.6%7,68951.4%8,6753.0%49916,863
Crawford39.1%8,28858.2%12,3162.7%56921,173
Cuyahoga68.9%458,20430.0%199,8641.1%7,049665,117
Darke30.9%7,96467.0%17,2902.1%53925,793
Defiance43.8%8,39954.2%10,4072.0%39119,197
Delaware39.7%36,65359.3%54,7781.1%98892,419
Erie56.1%23,14842.3%17,4321.6%64941,229
Fairfield40.7%29,25057.8%41,5801.6%1,11671,946
Fayette37.6%4,40160.7%7,1021.6%19111,694
Franklin59.7%334,68439.0%218,4781.3%7,129560,291
Fulton45.1%9,90053.2%11,6891.7%38421,973
Gallia35.9%4,77761.9%8,2472.2%29413,318
Geauga41.6%21,25056.9%29,0961.5%75651,102
Greene40.1%33,54058.5%48,9361.3%1,11383,589
Guernsey44.0%7,62553.1%9,1972.9%50317,325
Hamilton53.0%224,64446.0%195,1071.0%4,334424,085
Hancock37.6%13,87060.8%22,4201.6%59136,881
Hardin38.2%5,01359.1%7,7492.7%35213,114
Harrison47.3%3,68349.7%3,8723.0%2327,787
Henry42.6%6,32055.5%8,2391.9%28114,840
Highland35.7%6,85762.1%11,9082.2%42319,188
Hocking48.3%6,23149.1%6,3262.6%33812,895
Holmes28.3%3,14169.5%7,7202.3%25211,113
Huron47.2%12,07650.4%12,8842.4%62225,582
Jackson38.6%5,39758.7%8,2192.7%37713,993
Jefferson49.1%17,63548.9%17,5592.1%74535,939
Knox39.0%11,01458.9%16,6402.0%57728,231
Lake49.6%60,15548.7%59,1421.7%2,038121,335
Lawrence41.4%11,26256.7%15,4151.9%51727,194
Licking41.2%33,89657.0%46,8861.8%1,50182,283
Logan35.7%7,93662.3%13,8481.9%43322,217
Lorain58.1%85,27640.2%59,0681.7%2,515146,859
Lucas65.0%142,85233.5%73,7061.5%3,273219,831
Madison37.4%6,53260.8%10,6031.8%31617,451
Mahoning62.2%79,17335.6%45,3192.1%2,711127,203
Marion44.4%12,87053.3%15,4542.4%69329,017
Medina45.2%40,92453.3%48,1891.5%1,33890,451
Meigs39.5%4,09458.1%6,0152.4%24510,354
Mercer27.5%5,85371.0%15,1001.5%31821,271
Miami34.8%18,37263.3%33,4171.9%1,01852,807
Monroe53.1%3,70543.9%3,0663.0%2116,982
Montgomery52.5%145,99746.3%128,6791.3%3,535278,211
Morgan44.9%2,96652.1%3,4403.1%2026,608
Morrow37.1%6,17760.5%10,0672.4%39916,643
Muskingum45.4%17,73052.6%20,5492.0%79239,071
Noble40.1%2,47455.9%3,4504.0%2486,172
Ottawa52.2%12,04946.0%10,6181.7%40223,069
Paulding42.6%4,16554.4%5,3172.9%2879,769
Perry47.1%7,26150.1%7,7212.7%42215,404
Pickaway38.3%9,07760.0%14,2281.8%42123,726
Pike48.2%6,03349.3%6,1622.5%31112,506
Portage53.5%41,85644.5%34,8222.0%1,52878,206
Preble33.3%6,99964.6%13,5622.1%44121,002
Putnam28.3%5,28170.0%13,0721.8%32718,680
Richland42.1%25,72755.7%34,0342.2%1,36161,122
Ross45.4%14,45552.6%16,7592.0%62631,840
Sandusky51.4%15,60146.7%14,1901.9%58230,373
Scioto45.8%14,92652.2%16,9942.0%65132,571
Seneca47.7%13,08750.4%13,8232.0%53927,449
Shelby30.9%7,31767.3%15,9241.8%42723,668
Stark51.7%96,99046.3%86,7432.0%3,812187,545
Summit57.6%155,10541.1%110,4991.3%3,455269,059
Trumbull60.0%64,14537.6%40,1642.4%2,602106,911
Tuscarawas50.1%21,49847.6%20,4542.3%99842,950
Union35.1%8,76163.2%15,7441.7%42324,928
Van Wert35.3%5,17862.6%9,1682.1%30614,652
Vinton43.6%2,46353.5%3,0212.9%1625,646
Warren31.4%33,39867.5%71,6911.1%1,127106,216
Washington41.3%12,36856.9%17,0191.8%54529,932
Wayne41.6%21,71256.3%29,3422.1%1,08852,142
Williams44.4%8,17453.7%9,8801.9%34318,397
Wood52.7%34,28545.6%29,6481.7%1,09065,023
Wyandot40.6%4,46157.1%6,2702.2%24610,977

Projections based on published official or unofficial county election board results,[22] where available; otherwise, on the unofficial state board of elections results.[23]

By congressional district

Although Barack Obama won the state of Ohio, John McCain carried 10 of the state’s 18 congressional districts, including two districts held by Democratic incumbents and one district that simultaneously elected a Democrat. Obama carried 8 districts, including one district held by a Republican incumbent.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 44.30% 54.66% Steve Chabot (110th Congress)
Steve Driehaus (111th Congress)
2nd 58.61% 40.02% Jean Schmidt
3rd 51.14% 47.39% Mike Turner
4th 59.84% 38.16% Jim Jordan
5th 52.95% 45.05% Paul E. Gillmor (110th Congress)
Bob Latta (111th Congress)
6th 50.30% 47.60% Charlie Wilson
7th 53.80% 44.57% Dave Hobson (110th Congress)
Steve Austria (111th Congress)
8th 60.38% 37.87% John Boehner
9th 36.17% 62.26% Marcy Kaptur
10th 38.98% 59.16% Dennis Kucinich
11th 14.39% 84.76% Stephanie Tubbs Jones (110th Congress)
Marcia Fudge (111th Congress)
12th 44.62% 54.15% Pat Tiberi
13th 44.62% 54.15% Betty Sutton
14th 49.35% 49.13% Steven LaTourette
15th 44.64% 53.61% Deborah Pryce (110th Congress)
Mary Jo Kilroy (111th Congress)
16th 50.32% 47.69% Ralph Regula (110th Congress)
John Boccieri (111th Congress)
17th 36.09% 61.84% Tim Ryan
18th 52.81% 44.79% Zack Space

Electors

Technically the voters of Ohio cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Ohio is allocated 20 electors because it has 18 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 20 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 20 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 20 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[25]

  1. Catherine Barrett
  2. Barbara Tuckerman
  3. Wade Kapszukiewicz
  4. Tamela Lee
  5. Renee Cafaro
  6. Victoria Wulsin
  7. Craig Brown
  8. Jimmy Cotner
  9. Janet Carson
  10. Bruce Johnson
  11. Nannette Whaley
  12. Martha Jane Brooks
  13. Eugene Miller
  14. Fran Alberty
  15. Chris Redfern
  16. John Kosty
  17. Kelly Gillis
  18. Charleta Tavares
  19. Michael Todd
  20. Ted Strickland

References

  1. ↑ D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries
  2. ↑ Presidential | The Cook Political Report Archived May 5, 2015, at the Wayback Machine.
  3. ↑ Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
  4. ↑ Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results
  5. ↑ Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
  6. 1 2 3 4 Based on Takeaway
  7. ↑ POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
  8. ↑ RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
  9. ↑ CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 Archived October 29, 2008, at the Wayback Machine.
  10. ↑ "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  11. ↑ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  12. ↑ "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. 2010-04-27.
  13. ↑ roadto270
  14. ↑ Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
  15. ↑ http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/obama_takes_49_to_45_lead_in_ohio
  16. ↑ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Ohio". Retrieved 2008-11-28.
  17. ↑ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  18. ↑ Presidential Campaign Finance
  19. ↑ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  20. ↑ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  21. ↑ Danny Shea (4 November 2008). "Fox News Calls Ohio For Obama As Rove Says McCain Needs Ohio To Win". Huffington Post.
  22. ↑ "County Boards of Elections Directory". Retrieved 28 November 2008.
  23. ↑ "President / Vice-President : Unofficial Results". Retrieved 28 November 2008.
  24. ↑ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
  25. ↑ U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates

See also

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