United States presidential election in Texas, 2004

United States presidential election in Texas, 2004
Texas
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 34 0
Popular vote 4,526,917 2,832,704
Percentage 61.09% 38.22%

County Results

  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%
  Bush—80-90%
  Bush—>90%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Kerry—60-70%
  Kerry—70-80%

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Texas took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 34 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Texas was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 22.9% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered Texas as a safe red state for President Bush. The Lone Star State is a Republican stronghold and the home state of incumbent President George W. Bush. Texas has not voted for a Democratic candidate in a U.S. presidential election since Jimmy Carter's victory in 1976.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
  2. Associated Press: Solid Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
  5. Newsweek: Solid Bush
  6. New York Times: Solid Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll, and won each with at least 55% of the vote and a double digit margin of victory. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading 59% to 37%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $23,776,943.[3] Kerry raised $5,554,831.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.[5][6]

Analysis

Texas, located in the South, has become a consistently Republican state at all levels. Economically and racially diverse, Texas includes a huge swath of the Bible Belt where many voters, especially those in rural Texas, identify as born-again or evangelical Christians and therefore tend to vote Republican due to the party's opposition to abortion and gay rights. Although once part of the Solid South, the last time Texas voted for a Democratic presidential nominee was Jimmy Carter in 1976. George Bush achieved his party's best result in Texas since Ronald Reagan's second landslide in 1984.

President Bush carried 236 of the state's 254 counties, improving on his performance from 2000. East Texas, historically the most Democratic region in the state, also swung more towards the Republican Party. South Texas, while still losing the region heavily to Senator Kerry, swung towards Bush as well. The only regions to swung heavily in Kerry's favor were parts of Metro Houston, the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex, and the Austin area. Out of the three regions, only Travis County in the Austin area flipped back into the Democratic column due to the city's strong liberal leanings and opposition to the Iraq War. Although Bush carried Dallas County by a narrow margin of 50% to Kerry's 49%, the city of Dallas proper voted heavily for Kerry, winning 57% of the vote.

Results

United States presidential election in Texas, 2004
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Party George W. Bush 4,526,917 61.1% 34
Democratic John Kerry 2,832,704 38.4% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 38,787 0.5% 0
Write In Ralph Nader 9,159 0.1% 0
Write In Michael Peroutka 1,636 0.0% 0
Write In David Cobb 1,014 0.0% 0
Write In Andrew J. Falk 219 0.0% 0
Write In John Joseph Kennedy 126 0.0% 0
Write In Walt Brown 111 0.0% 0
Write In Deborah Elaine Allen 92 0.0% 0
Totals 7,410,765 100.00% 34
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 46.7%

Results breakdown

By county

County Bush% Bush# Kerry% Kerry# Others% Others# Total
Anderson70.7%11,52528.7%4,6780.6%9816,301
Andrews84.6%3,83714.9%6770.5%224,536
Angelina66.7%18,93232.8%9,3020.5%13028,364
Aransas70.9%6,56928.5%2,6400.6%599,268
Archer79.9%3,55619.7%8780.4%174,451
Armstrong82.7%83016.9%1700.4%41,004
Atascosa63.0%7,63536.5%4,4210.5%6012,116
Austin75.4%8,07224.1%2,5820.4%4810,702
Bailey78.0%1,88221.8%5250.2%52,412
Bandera79.3%6,93319.9%1,7380.8%708,741
Bastrop56.7%13,29041.8%9,7941.5%35723,441
Baylor71.3%1,16928.5%4670.2%41,640
Bee57.0%5,42842.5%4,0450.5%459,518
Bell65.4%52,13534.1%27,1650.5%42479,724
Bexar54.8%260,69844.4%210,9760.8%3,640475,314
Blanco71.5%3,27727.6%1,2670.9%404,584
Borden84.4%30315.3%550.3%1359
Bosque75.6%5,73723.9%1,8150.4%347,586
Bowie64.5%21,79135.2%11,8800.3%8933,760
Brazoria68.3%63,66231.0%28,9040.7%68293,248
Brazos69.2%37,59429.7%16,1281.1%58754,309
Brewster52.7%1,98046.0%1,7291.4%513,760
Briscoe76.4%62023.6%1910.0%0811
Brooks31.6%84568.2%1,8230.2%62,674
Brown81.7%11,64017.7%2,5230.6%9014,253
Burleson65.5%4,40533.9%2,2760.6%406,721
Burnet72.8%11,45626.3%4,1470.9%13915,742
Caldwell55.5%6,43643.6%5,0520.9%9911,587
Calhoun62.8%4,34837.0%2,5610.3%206,929
Callahan80.3%4,54219.0%1,0730.7%395,654
Cameron50.3%34,80149.2%33,9980.5%35769,156
Camp59.4%2,63840.1%1,7780.5%234,439
Carson83.2%2,45016.5%4850.3%92,944
Cass61.3%7,38338.4%4,6300.3%3612,049
Castro73.8%1,79426.0%6310.2%52,430
Chambers74.0%8,61825.3%2,9530.7%7811,649
Cherokee71.5%11,32928.0%4,4390.4%7115,839
Childress76.0%1,62923.8%5110.2%42,144
Clay75.1%3,97124.6%1,2990.3%185,288
Cochran77.1%85622.4%2490.5%51,110
Coke83.1%1,33816.5%2660.4%61,610
Coleman79.3%3,03520.3%7780.3%133,826
Collin71.2%174,43528.1%68,9350.7%1,784245,154
Collingsworth75.2%1,05124.7%3460.1%11,398
Colorado71.4%5,48828.1%2,1610.5%417,690
Comal76.9%31,57422.3%9,1530.8%31641,043
Comanche72.4%3,81327.2%1,4310.5%245,268
Concho76.4%91122.6%2701.0%121,193
Cooke78.8%11,90820.8%3,1420.4%5715,107
Coryell70.5%12,42129.1%5,1220.5%8217,625
Cottle71.5%54927.9%2140.7%5768
Crane83.5%1,31416.1%2540.4%61,574
Crockett72.2%1,24827.4%4730.4%71,728
Crosby72.4%1,64727.3%6220.3%62,275
Culberson51.6%40747.6%3750.8%6788
Dallam82.7%1,47317.1%3050.2%41,782
Dallas50.3%346,24649.0%336,6410.7%4,822687,709
Dawson75.2%3,41924.5%1,1140.3%124,545
Deaf Smith78.2%4,13921.4%1,1330.4%195,291
Delta69.5%1,44730.1%6270.4%82,082
Denton70.0%140,89129.5%59,3460.6%1,173201,410
DeWitt75.8%5,10023.9%1,6100.3%226,732
Dickens76.7%81523.0%2450.3%31,063
Dimmit33.3%1,18866.3%2,3650.4%133,566
Donley80.1%1,42919.6%3490.3%61,784
Duval28.4%1,16071.3%2,9160.4%154,091
Eastland76.5%5,24923.1%1,5820.4%266,857
Ector75.7%27,50223.6%8,5790.6%22936,310
Edwards77.4%74522.5%2170.1%1963
Ellis74.5%34,60225.1%11,6400.4%20246,444
El Paso43.2%73,26156.1%95,1420.7%1,170169,573
Erath77.4%9,50622.1%2,7100.5%6512,281
Falls58.5%3,45441.1%2,4270.4%215,902
Fannin66.0%7,89333.5%4,0010.6%6611,960
Fayette72.4%7,52727.0%2,8030.6%6710,397
Fisher60.4%1,16139.4%7580.2%41,923
Floyd78.6%2,03221.1%5450.3%72,584
Foard59.1%34740.0%2350.9%5587
Fort Bend57.4%93,62542.1%68,7220.5%822163,169
Franklin75.5%3,18524.0%1,0110.5%214,217
Freestone70.6%5,05728.9%2,0700.5%347,161
Frio50.7%1,99149.1%1,9310.2%83,930
Gaines85.0%3,54014.6%6080.4%164,164
Galveston57.8%61,29041.4%43,9190.7%772105,981
Garza81.7%1,48018.0%3260.3%61,812
Gillespie80.5%9,29718.2%2,1041.3%15211,553
Glasscock91.6%4888.3%440.2%1533
Goliad64.8%2,26734.8%1,2190.4%153,501
Gonzales71.3%4,29128.4%1,7090.4%226,022
Gray84.7%7,26015.0%1,2890.3%238,572
Grayson69.3%30,77730.3%13,4520.4%19444,423
Gregg70.6%29,93929.0%12,3060.4%15342,398
Grimes65.5%5,26333.8%2,7130.7%548,030
Guadalupe72.8%28,20826.6%10,2900.7%25438,752
Hale79.0%8,02520.5%2,0780.5%5110,154
Hall67.3%86032.3%4130.3%41,277
Hamilton76.6%2,85622.7%8450.8%293,730
Hansford88.6%1,90311.2%2400.2%42,147
Hardeman71.3%1,21428.2%4800.5%81,702
Hardin72.6%15,03027.1%5,6080.3%7220,710
Harris54.8%584,72344.6%475,8650.7%7,3801,067,968
Harrison62.8%16,47336.8%9,6420.4%10826,223
Hartley84.3%1,73615.3%3150.4%82,059
Haskell63.7%1,53935.9%8670.4%102,416
Hays56.5%27,02142.1%20,1101.4%69247,823
Hemphill84.0%1,38015.6%2570.4%61,643
Henderson70.1%20,21029.5%8,5050.5%13428,849
Hidalgo44.8%50,93154.9%62,3690.3%383113,683
Hill70.7%9,22528.7%3,7510.6%7713,053
Hockley81.3%6,16018.3%1,3850.4%327,577
Hood76.5%16,28022.8%4,8650.7%14821,293
Hopkins71.1%8,58228.5%3,4430.3%3712,062
Houston66.4%5,84833.2%2,9210.4%378,806
Howard73.3%7,48026.1%2,6630.6%5810,201
Hudspeth65.1%57734.1%3020.8%7886
Hunt71.2%20,06528.3%7,9710.6%15828,194
Hutchinson83.7%7,83916.0%1,5030.3%279,369
Irion82.6%68417.0%1410.4%3828
Jack79.0%2,47020.6%6430.4%133,126
Jackson74.2%3,76625.5%1,2960.3%155,077
Jasper64.8%8,34734.7%4,4710.4%5512,873
Jeff Davis65.5%76432.4%3782.1%251,167
Jefferson48.4%44,42351.2%47,0660.4%37791,866
Jim Hogg34.5%71265.1%1,3440.4%92,065
Jim Wells45.8%5,81753.8%6,8240.4%5012,691
Johnson73.4%34,81826.0%12,3250.6%27947,422
Jones71.7%4,25428.0%1,6580.3%195,931
Karnes66.6%3,11433.0%1,5430.3%164,673
Kaufman70.2%21,30429.5%8,9470.4%11530,366
Kendall81.3%11,43418.0%2,5320.8%10614,072
Kenedy48.5%8250.3%851.2%2169
Kent73.2%38226.4%1380.4%2522
Kerr77.8%16,53821.4%4,5570.7%15121,246
Kimble81.6%1,48217.8%3240.6%101,816
King87.8%13711.5%180.6%1156
Kinney65.7%1,05133.9%5420.4%71,600
Kleberg53.8%5,36645.6%4,5500.6%579,973
Knox69.7%1,08129.9%4640.5%71,552
Lamar69.0%12,05430.6%5,3380.4%7817,470
Lamb79.8%3,41020.1%8570.1%44,271
Lampasas77.2%5,42222.7%1,5930.1%107,025
La Salle44.3%98955.1%1,2290.5%122,230
Lavaca73.1%5,97426.3%2,1520.6%518,177
Lee68.3%4,16031.2%1,8990.5%296,088
Leon73.9%5,02325.8%1,7540.3%226,799
Liberty68.3%14,82131.3%6,7800.4%9021,691
Limestone64.3%5,02835.2%2,7520.5%387,818
Lipscomb85.8%1,14713.8%1840.4%61,337
Live Oak74.9%3,14724.7%1,0360.4%184,201
Llano75.7%7,24123.6%2,2570.7%659,563
Loving81.3%6515.0%123.8%380
Lubbock75.3%70,13524.1%22,4720.6%54493,151
Lynn78.2%1,77621.6%4900.2%52,271
McCulloch76.6%2,46523.1%7450.3%103,220
McLennan65.7%52,09033.8%26,7600.5%40479,254
McMullen82.8%46716.8%950.4%2564
Madison69.2%2,83730.1%1,2350.7%294,101
Marion56.1%2,44143.3%1,8840.5%234,348
Martin83.8%1,51415.9%2880.3%51,807
Mason77.0%1,60022.1%4590.9%182,077
Matagorda64.8%8,11934.8%4,3550.4%4712,521
Maverick40.1%4,02559.3%5,9480.6%6110,034
Medina70.1%10,38929.2%4,3220.8%11514,826
Menard69.0%76130.0%3311.0%111,103
Midland81.6%36,58517.9%8,0050.5%24444,834
Milam60.2%5,29139.2%3,4450.5%478,783
Mills80.4%1,79418.6%4160.9%212,231
Mitchell74.7%1,91225.0%6390.3%72,558
Montague74.8%5,91024.6%1,9460.5%417,897
Montgomery78.1%104,65421.4%28,6280.5%706133,988
Moore81.8%4,60117.9%1,0090.3%185,628
Morris53.4%2,81846.2%2,4370.4%235,278
Motley82.5%56416.5%1131.0%7684
Nacogdoches66.0%14,16033.3%7,1520.7%15421,466
Navarro66.8%10,71532.8%5,2590.4%6016,034
Newton55.4%3,15944.1%2,5130.5%285,700
Nolan70.4%3,72229.1%1,5410.5%265,289
Nueces56.8%59,35942.5%44,4390.7%762104,560
Ochiltree92.0%2,9227.9%2510.1%43,177
Oldham87.0%73312.8%1080.2%2843
Orange63.6%20,29236.0%11,4760.4%14031,908
Palo Pinto71.3%7,13728.1%2,8160.6%6110,014
Panola70.2%7,02129.6%2,9580.3%2810,007
Parker77.6%31,79521.9%8,9660.5%19640,957
Parmer85.6%2,37514.0%3890.3%92,773
Pecos71.5%3,16728.0%1,2420.4%194,428
Polk66.1%13,77833.4%6,9640.5%10420,846
Potter73.7%21,40125.8%7,4890.6%16629,056
Presidio37.8%71561.3%1,1590.8%161,890
Rains70.9%2,99828.7%1,2130.4%184,229
Randall83.4%40,52016.2%7,8490.4%21848,587
Reagan83.6%95616.1%1840.3%31,143
Real79.9%1,31419.8%3250.4%61,645
Red River61.5%3,37938.2%2,0970.3%145,490
Reeves52.3%1,77747.1%1,6000.5%183,395
Refugio64.0%2,21235.7%1,2320.3%113,455
Roberts90.9%4619.1%460.0%0507
Robertson55.8%3,79243.8%2,9790.4%246,795
Rockwall78.7%20,12020.8%5,3200.6%14125,581
Runnels80.0%3,23919.6%7920.4%184,049
Rusk73.0%13,39026.7%4,8990.3%5518,344
Sabine67.6%3,13831.8%1,4760.5%254,639
San Augustine59.5%2,23540.1%1,5060.4%163,757
San Jacinto66.4%5,39433.1%2,6880.5%438,125
San Patricio63.2%13,47436.4%7,7640.4%8221,320
San Saba77.9%1,89421.8%5290.3%82,431
Schleicher76.1%1,01223.5%3120.4%51,329
Scurry82.1%4,57617.6%9810.3%155,572
Shackelford84.6%1,29215.0%2290.4%61,527
Shelby67.8%6,29531.8%2,9510.4%339,279
Sherman88.4%94211.6%1240.0%01,066
Smith72.5%53,39227.1%19,9700.4%30273,664
Somervell76.1%2,70123.4%8310.5%193,551
Starr26.1%2,55273.6%7,1990.3%309,781
Stephens79.7%2,80320.0%7030.4%133,519
Sterling88.5%54411.5%710.0%0615
Stonewall66.4%49933.2%2500.4%3752
Sutton80.7%1,17319.3%2800.0%01,453
Swisher70.1%1,48729.5%6260.3%72,120
Tarrant62.4%349,46237.0%207,2860.6%3,393560,141
Taylor77.3%37,19722.1%10,6480.5%25448,099
Terrell65.2%30633.9%1590.9%4469
Terry79.7%3,16620.0%7940.3%103,970
Throckmorton76.0%65623.4%2020.6%5863
Titus64.1%5,70935.6%3,1730.3%258,907
Tom Green75.3%28,18524.1%9,0070.6%22537,417
Travis42.0%147,88556.0%197,2352.0%6,993352,113
Trinity64.1%3,98535.5%2,2040.4%246,213
Tyler65.1%5,04334.3%2,6590.6%437,745
Upshur70.4%10,23229.1%4,2250.5%6914,526
Upton84.3%1,00915.5%1850.3%31,197
Uvalde60.7%5,14838.9%3,2980.4%378,483
Val Verde59.1%6,96840.3%4,7570.6%7011,795
Van Zandt75.4%14,97624.3%4,8220.3%5819,856
Victoria70.5%20,87528.9%8,5530.6%17429,602
Walker65.7%11,71033.5%5,9770.8%13517,822
Waller55.3%7,67944.3%6,1450.4%5713,881
Ward75.8%2,85623.9%9010.3%113,768
Washington73.5%9,59725.9%3,3890.6%7713,063
Webb42.7%17,75356.9%23,6540.4%14941,556
Wharton66.2%9,28833.5%4,7020.3%4914,039
Wheeler81.9%1,96017.5%4200.6%142,394
Wichita71.3%32,47228.1%12,8190.6%25445,545
Wilbarger73.8%3,68525.7%1,2840.4%214,990
Willacy44.5%2,20955.1%2,7340.4%194,962
Williamson65.0%83,28433.6%43,1171.4%1,797128,198
Wilson69.9%10,40029.6%4,4090.5%7614,885
Winkler80.1%1,60419.5%3910.3%72,002
Wise75.8%15,17723.9%4,7830.4%7120,031
Wood75.8%12,83123.8%4,0340.4%6416,929
Yoakum85.3%2,22814.4%3760.3%92,613
Young79.3%5,87420.4%1,5110.3%247,409
Zapata42.4%1,22857.3%1,6620.3%82,898
Zavala24.9%77774.8%2,3320.3%93,118

By congressional district

Bush won 25 of 32 congressional districts.[7]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 69% 31% Max Sandlin
Louie Gohmert
2nd 63% 37% Jim Turner
Ted Poe
3rd 67% 33% Sam Johnson
4th 70% 30% Ralph Hall
5th 67% 33% Jeb Hensarling
6th 66% 34% Joe Barton
7th 64% 36% John Culberson
8th 72% 28% Kevin Brady
9th 30% 70% Nick Lampson
Al Green
10th 62% 38% Lloyd Doggett
Michael McCaul
11th 78% 22% Chet Edwards
Mike Conaway
12th 67% 33% Kay Granger
13th 78% 22% Mac Thornberry
14th 67% 33% Ron Paul
15th 51% 49% Rubén Hinojosa
16th 44% 56% Silvestre Reyes
17th 70% 30% Charles Stenholm
Chet Edwards
18th 28% 72% Sheila Jackson Lee
19th 77% 23% Randy Neugebauer
20th 45% 55% Charlie Gonzalez
21st 66% 34% Lamar S. Smith
22nd 64% 36% Tom DeLay
23rd 57% 43% Henry Bonilla
24th 65% 35% Martin Frost
Kenny Marchant
25th 46% 54% Chris Bell
Lloyd Doggett
26th 65% 35% Michael C. Burgess
27th 55% 45% Solomon Ortiz
28th 54% 46% Ciro Rodriguez
Henry Cuellar
29th 44% 56% Gene Green
30th 25% 75% Eddie Bernice Johnson
31st 67% 33% John Carter
32nd 60% 40% Pete Sessions

Electors

Technically the voters of Texas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Texas is allocated 34 electors because it has 32 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 34 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 34 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 34 were pledged to Bush/Cheney:[8][9]

  1. Royce Hayes
  2. Tom Cotter
  3. Jay Pierce
  4. Marjorie Chandler
  5. Lance Lenz
  6. Barbara Grusendorf
  7. Bill Borden
  8. Jim Wiggins
  9. Anna Rice
  10. Jan Galbraith
  11. Sue Brannon
  12. Cheryl Surber
  13. Mike Ussery
  14. Sid Young
  15. Frank Morris
  16. Roger O'Dell
  17. Christopher DeCluitt
  18. Martha Greenlaw
  19. Marcus Anderson
  20. Mike Provost
  21. Bennie Bock
  22. Kathy Haigler
  23. Kim Hesley
  24. Peter Wrench
  25. Morris Woods
  26. Rhealyn Samuelson
  27. Nancy Stevens
  28. Loyce McCarter
  29. Larry Bowles
  30. Dan Mosher
  31. Glenn Warren
  32. Kristina Kiik
  33. Susan Weddington
  34. Charles Burchett

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[]
  2. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=48
  3. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  6. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.25.html
  7. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
  8. ↑ http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/2004_certificates/ascertainment_texas.html
  9. ↑ http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/forms/candidates/rep.pdf

See also

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