United States Senate election in Iowa, 2016

November 8, 2016



Nominee	Chuck Grassley	Patty Judge
Party	Republican	Democratic
Popular vote	923,280	546,974
Percentage	60.2%	35.7%

U.S. Senator before election

Chuck Grassley
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Chuck Grassley
Republican

Elections in Iowa

Federal government

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Iowa caucuses
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State government

General elections
2014 2016
Gubernatorial elections
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Iowa Senate elections
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Iowa House elections
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2009

The 2016 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley won re-election to a seventh term in office. Primary elections were held on June 7, 2016.^[1] with Grassley winning the Republican nomination, and Patty Judge winning the Democratic nomination. Grassley won on November 8th, 2016.

Background

Republican Chuck Grassley was first elected to the Senate in 1980, defeating Democratic incumbent John Culver by 53% to 46%. Since then, Grassley has been re-elected five times, most recently in 2010, on each occasion taking at least 64% of the vote.

Despite speculation that Grassley, who turned 83 years old in 2016, might retire,^[2] he announced in September 2013 that he was "making plans to run for re-election", but added that "it's not taking much of my time. I’m concentrating on doing my job for Iowans."^[3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Chuck Grassley, incumbent Senator^[3]^[4]

Withdrawn

Robert Rees, talk radio host^[5]^[6]^[7]

Declined

Pat Grassley, State Representative and grandson of Chuck Grassley^[8]
Steve King, U.S. Representative^[9]
Tom Latham, former U.S. Representative^[9]

Results

Republican primary results^[10]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Chuck Grassley (incumbent)	90,089	98.36
	Republican	Write-ins	1,500	1.64
Total votes			91,589	100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Tom Fiegen, former State Senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010^[4]
Rob Hogg, State Senator^[11]
Patty Judge, former Lieutenant Governor and former Iowa Secretary of Agriculture^[12]^[13]^[14]
Bob Krause, former State Representative, nominee for State Treasurer in 1978, candidate for Mayor of Waterloo in 1982 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010^[15]

Withdrawn

Ray Zirkelbach, former State Representative^[16]^[17]

Declined

Christie Vilsack, former First Lady of Iowa and nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2012^[8]
Tom Vilsack, United States Secretary of Agriculture and former Governor of Iowa^[9]
Chet Culver, former Governor of Iowa^[8]^[18]
Michael Gronstal, Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate and Chairman of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee^[8]^[19]
Dave Loebsack, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)^[9]^[20]
Andy McGuire, Chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party and candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2006^[4]
Tyler Olson, former State Representative, former Chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, and candidate for Governor in 2014^[21]^[22]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patty Judge	Rob Hogg	Bob Krause	Tom Fiegen	None/Other	Undecided
KBUR-AM 1490	May 31–June 1, 2016	1,361	± 3.0%	37%	31%	3%	6%	–	23%
Des Moines Register	May 30–June 2, 2016	542	± 4.2%	42%	25%	6%	5%	6%	15%

Results

Democratic primary results^[10]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Patty Judge	46,322	47.62
	Democratic	Rob Hogg	37,801	38.86
	Democratic	Tom Fiegen	6,573	6.76
	Democratic	Bob Krause	6,425	6.60
	Democratic	Write-ins	154	0.16
Total votes			97,275	100

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[23]	103 !Likely R	September 30, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[24]	104 !Safe R	September 26, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[25]	104 !Safe R	September 30, 2016
Daily Kos^[26]	104 !Safe R	October 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics^[27]	103 !Likely R	October 4, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chuck Grassley (R)	Patty Judge (D)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey	November 1–7, 2016	1,781	± 4.6%	57%	39%	—	4%
SurveyMonkey	Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016	1,598	± 4.6%	56%	39%	—	5%
Des Moines Register/Selzer	November 1–4, 2016	800	± 3.5%	56%	33%	2%	4%
Emerson College	November 1–3, 2016	700	± 3.6%	60%	32%	4%	5%
Loras College	November 1–3, 2016	500	± 4.4%	53%	37%	1%	8%
SurveyMonkey	Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016	1,469	± 4.6%	57%	39%	—	4%
SurveyMonkey	Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016	1,226	± 4.6%	57%	40%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey	Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016	867	± 4.6%	56%	41%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 25–31, 2016	984	± 4.6%	56%	41%	—	3%
Quinnipiac University	October 20–26, 2016	791	± 3.5%	56%	38%	—	5%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey	October 8–16, 2016	1,135	± 0.5%	56%	40%	—	5%
Google Consumer Surveys	October 12–14, 2016	523	± 4.2%	56%	41%	—	3%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid	October 7–10, 2016	917	± 3.0%	51%	39%	—	11%
Des Moines Register/Selzer	October 3–6, 2016	642	± 3.5%	53%	36%	2%	6%
Loras College	September 20–22, 2016	491	± 4.4%	54%	37%	—	9%
Quinnipiac University	September 13–21, 2016	612	± 4.0%	55%	43%	—	2%
Monmouth University	September 12–14, 2016	404	± 4.9%	56%	39%	2%	3%
RABA Research	September 6–8, 2016	1,054	± 3.0%	50%	37%	—	13%
Emerson College	Aug 31–Sept 1, 2016	600	± 3.9%	51%	40%	3%	6%
Public Policy Polling	August 30–31, 2016	827	± 3.4%	49%	43%	—	8%
CBS News/YouGov	August 17–19, 2016	987	± 4.0%	45%	38%	1%	15%
Quinnipiac University	August 9–16, 2016	846	± 3.4%	51%	42%	—	6%
Suffolk University	August 8–10, 2016	500	± 4.4%	52%	42%	—	6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist	August 3–7, 2016	899	± 3.3%	52%	42%	1%	5%
CBS News/YouGov	July 13–15, 2016	998	± 4.8%	45%	37%	2%	16%
Monmouth University	July 8–11, 2016	401	± 4.9%	52%	42%	—	6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist	July 5–10, 2016	822	± 3.4%	52%	42%	1%	5%
Loras College	June 24–28, 2016	600	± 4.0%	46%	45%	—	9%
Public Policy Polling	June 22–23, 2016	897	± 3.3%	46%	39%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling	June 9–13, 2016	630	± 3.9%	48%	41%	—	11%

Hypothetical polling

with Rob Hogg

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chuck Grassley (R)	Rob Hogg (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 8–10, 2016	1,901	± 2.3%	52%	28%	19%
Public Policy Polling	December 10–13, 2015	1,426	± 2.6%	54%	29%	17%
Public Policy Polling	October 30–November 1, 2015	1,668	± 2.4%	53%	29%	18%
Public Policy Polling	August 7–9, 2015	1,500	± 2.5%	52%	28%	20%

with Tom Fiegen

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chuck Grassley (R)	Tom Fiegen (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 8–10, 2016	1,901	± 2.3%	53%	29%	18%
Public Policy Polling	December 10–13, 2015	1,426	± 2.6%	54%	29%	16%
Public Policy Polling	October 30–November 1, 2015	1,668	± 2.4%	54%	30%	16%
Public Policy Polling	August 7–9, 2015	1,500	± 2.5%	53%	30%	17%

with Bob Krause

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chuck Grassley (R)	Bob Krause (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 8–10, 2016	1,901	± 2.3%	52%	28%	20%
Public Policy Polling	December 10–13, 2015	1,426	± 2.6%	53%	28%	19%
Public Policy Polling	October 30–November 1, 2015	1,668	± 2.4%	52%	28%	21%
Public Policy Polling	August 7–9, 2015	1,500	± 2.5%	51%	29%	20%

with Tom Vilsack

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chuck Grassley (R)	Tom Vilsack (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 25–28, 2014	1,192	± 2.8%	51%	42%	7%
Public Policy Polling	May 15–19, 2014	914	± 3.3%	49%	39%	12%
Public Policy Polling	February 20–23, 2014	869	± 3.3%	48%	41%	11%

References

↑ Iowa Secretary of State, Primary Election,
↑ Matt Kelley (January 29, 2013). "Senator Grassley not ready to consider joining Harkin in retirement". Radio Iowa. Retrieved May 22, 2014.
1 2 Livingston, Abby (September 20, 2013). "Grassley Planning to Run Again in 2016". Roll Call. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
1 2 3 Jacobs, Jennifer; Noble, Jason (March 31, 2015). "And he's off: Event kicks off Grassley's re-election campaign". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 31, 2015.
↑ Porter, Jake (January 19, 2016). "Primary Challenger Announces Against Grassley". Iowa Free Press. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
↑ "IA-Sen: Robert Rees challenging Chuck Grassley in GOP primary". Bleeding Heartland. February 12, 2016. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
↑ "IA-Sen: Robert Rees ends GOP primary challenge to Chuck Grassley". Bleeding Heartland. March 15, 2016. Retrieved March 17, 2016.
1 2 3 4 Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
1 2 3 4 Cahn, Emily (June 26, 2013). "Hawkeye Politicians Finally See Some Opportunity in 2014 | Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved August 14, 2013.
1 2 "Official Results" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved July 21, 2016.
↑ Petroski, William (September 21, 2015). "Hogg to seek Grassley's seat in U.S. Senate". Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 22, 2015.
↑ Noble, Jason (February 25, 2016). "Challenge Grassley? Patty Judge is thinking about it". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 25, 2016.
↑ Steinhauer, Jennifer (March 3, 2016). "Charles Grassley Faces Formidable Challenger in Iowa Senate Race". The New York Times. Retrieved March 3, 2016.
↑ Noble, Jason (March 4, 2016). "It's official: Patty Judge challenges Chuck Grassley". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
↑ "Krause ends bid for governor, endorses fellow Democrat Hatch". Des Moines Register. 2 January 2014. Retrieved 3 January 2014.
↑ Lynch, James Q. (November 7, 2015). "Zirkelbach is fourth candidate in Democratic U.S. Senate race". The Gazette. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
↑ "IA-Sen: Patty Judge thinking about challenging Chuck Grassley". Bleeding Heartland. February 26, 2016. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
↑ Noble, Jason (March 4, 2016). "Former Iowa Gov. Chet Culver tells me he WILL NOT run for Congress or any other political office in 2016". Twitter. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
↑ Petroski, William (January 26, 2016). "61 legislators endorse Hogg's U.S. Senate bid". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
↑ Henderson, O. Kay (April 21, 2015). "Loebsack in Des Moines to talk 2016 campaign strategy". Radio Iowa. Retrieved July 23, 2015.
↑ Rynard, Pat (May 28, 2015). "Rumor Roundup: Ravi Patel's Super PAC, Webb's Loss, Adams In, Bertrand for Governor". Iowa Starting Line. Retrieved May 28, 2015.
↑ "Two bizarre takes on the IA-Sen Democratic primary". Bleeding Heartland. March 7, 2016. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 30, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 30, 2016.
↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 27, 2016.
↑ "2016 Senate Ratings (September 30, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 1, 2016.
↑ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 7, 2016.
↑ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 5, 2016.

External links

Official campaign websites

(2015 ←) 2016 United States elections (→ 2017)

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