Murcian parliamentary election, 2011

22 May 2011

All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia 23 seats needed for a majority

Opinion polls
Registered	974,998 1.2%
Turnout	662,086 (67.9%) 0.1 pp
	First party	Second party	Third party

Leader	Ramón Luis Valcárcel	Begoña García Retegui	José Antonio Pujante
Party	PP	PSOE	IU
Leader since	5 October 1991	3 October 2010	2006
Last election	29 seats, 58.3%	15 seats, 32.0%	1 seat, 6.3%
Seats won	33	11	1
Seat change	4	4	±0
Popular vote	382,871	155,506	50,988
Percentage	58.8%	23.9%	7.8%
Swing	0.5 pp	8.1 pp	1.5 pp

President before election

Ramón Luis Valcárcel
PP

Elected President

Ramón Luis Valcárcel
PP

The 2011 Murcian parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 22 May 2011, to elect the 8th Regional Assembly of Murcia, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of the Region of Murcia. At stake were all 45 seats in the Assembly, determining the President of the Region of Murcia.

The election was won by the People's Party (PP), which obtained its best result ever in the Region. With over 70% of the seats (33), it obtained thrice the number of seats of the second most voted party, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which plummeted to just below 24% and 11 seats. The PP had won its first election in 1995, and under Ramón Luis Valcárcel it had achieved an absolute majority of seats and votes in all elections held ever since.

All in all, the PP gained four seats from the PSOE, with United Left (IU) holding its solitary seat but gaining ground, increasing its % of the share from 6.3% to 7.8%. The 5% regional threshold prevented Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) from winning a seat as, although it polled 5.3% in District Three, its vote in the entire Murcian region was 4.5%.

Electoral system

The number of seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia was set to a fixed-number of 45. All Assembly members were elected in 5 multi-member districts using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Unlike other regions, districts did not coincide with provincial limits, being determined by law as such:

District One, comprising the municipalities of: Lorca, Aguilas, Puerto Lumbreras, Totana, Alhama de Murcia, Librilla, Aledo and Mazarrón.
District Two, comprising the municipalities of: Cartagena, La Unión, Fuente Alamo de Murcia, Torre-Pacheco, San Javier and San Pedro del Pinatar.
District Three, comprising the municipalities of: Murcia, Alcantarilla, Beniel, Molina de Segura, Alguazas, Las Torres de Cotillas, Lorquí, Ceutí, Cieza, Abarán, Blanca, Archena, Ricote, Ulea, Villanueva del Río Segura, Ojós, Fortuna, Abanilla and Santomera.
District Four, comprising the municipalities of: Caravaca, Cehegín, Calasparra, Moratalla, Bullas, Pliego, Mula, Albudeite and Campos del Río.
District Five, comprising the municipalities of: Jumilla and Yecla.

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 5% of valid votes in all of the community (which include blank ballots—for none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution. This meant that in the case a list polled above 5% in one or more of the districts but below 5% in the community totals, it would remain outside of the seat apportionment.^[1]

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PP	PSOE	IU	UPyD	Oth.	Lead
Date	Polling Firm/Source					Oth.	Lead
22 May 2011	Regional Election	58.8	23.9	7.8	4.5	5.0	34.9
Exit polls
7 May	TNS-Demoscopia	59.1	26.2	8.3		6.4	32.9
13–20 Apr	Celeste-Tel^{[lower-alpha 1]}	58.8	25.7	8.4	4.2	2.9	33.1
17 Mar–17 Apr	CIS	61.8	26.0	6.6	2.3	3.3	35.8
11–14 Apr	Sigma-2	61.7	24.8	7.1		6.4	36.9
4–14 Apr	Ikerfel	59.6	26.9	6.6		6.9	32.7
25 Mar–1 Apr	CEMOP^{[lower-alpha 1]}	58.4	25.2	8.7	4.7	3.0	33.2
2011
27–29 Dec	Sigma-2	61.8	25.4	7.3		5.5	36.4
21–26 Oct	CEMOP^{[lower-alpha 1]}	62.6	21.6	8.7	4.0	3.1	41.0
2–4 May	Sigma-2	62.7	26.8	4.6		5.9	35.9
22–28 Apr	CEMOP^{[lower-alpha 1]}	60.9	24.2	7.6	4.1	3.2	36.7
2010
26 Oct–6 Nov	CEMOP^{[lower-alpha 1]}	60.7	28.1	4.8	3.2	3.2	32.6
7 Jun 2009	EP Election	61.5	29.8	3.0	2.9	2.8	31.7
21–26 Apr	CEMOP^{[lower-alpha 1]}	60.3	28.6	4.3	3.4	3.4	31.7
2009
9 Mar 2008	General Election	61.2	32.9	2.9	0.9	2.1	28.3
2008
27 May 2007	Regional Election	58.3	32.0	6.3		3.4	26.3

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

23 seats needed for majority
Date	Polling Firm/Source	PP	PSOE	IU	UPyD	Others
Date	Polling Firm/Source					Others
22 May 2011	Regional Election	33	11	1	0	0
Exit polls
7 May	TNS-Demoscopia	30−31	12−13	2	0	0
13–20 Apr	Celeste-Tel	32	12	1	0	0
17 Mar–17 Apr	CIS	31	13	1	0	0
11–14 Apr	Sigma-2	31−32	11−13	1−2	0	0
4–14 Apr	Ikerfel	31	13	1	0	0
2011
27–29 Dec	Sigma-2	31−32	12−13	1	0	0
2–4 May	Sigma-2	31−33	12−14	0	0	0
2010
2009
2008
27 May 2007	Regional Election	29	15	1		0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 22 May 2011 Murcian Regional Assembly election results →
Party		Vote			Seats

Party		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	382,871	58.79	0.49	33	4
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	155,506	23.88	8.12	11	4
	United Left-Greens of the Region of Murcia (IU-V-RM)	50,988	7.83	1.58	1	±0

	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	29,279	4.50	New	0	±0
	The Greens of the Region of Murcia-Ecolo (LV-ECOLO)	7,659	1.18	New	0	±0
	Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL)	3,930	0.60	0.02	0	±0
	Party for the Regeneration of Democracy in Spain (PRDE)	1,177	0.18	New	0	±0
	Employment Business Party (PEE)	1,057	0.16	New	0	±0
	National Democracy (DN)	856	0.13	0.02	0	±0
	Renewed United Democratic Centre (CDUR)	834	0.13	New	0	±0
	Centre and Democracy Forum (CyD)	824	0.13	New	0	±0
	Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)	719	0.11	New	0	±0
	Nostradamus' State Reform (REN)	621	0.10	New	0	±0
	The Falange (FE)	488	0.07	New	0	±0
	Republican Platform-Republican Coalition (PRCR)	220	0.03	New	0	±0
	Southeast Citizen Convergence (CCSE)	182	0.03	New	0	±0
	Blank ballots	14,050	2.16	0.83

Total		651,261	100.00		45	±0

Valid votes		651,261	98.37	0.87
Invalid votes		10,825	1.63	0.87
Votes cast / turnout		662,086	67.91	0.10
Abstentions		312,912	32.09	0.10
Registered voters		974,998

Source(s): Argos Information Portal

Vote share

PP			58.79%
PSOE			23.88%
IU-V-RM			7.83%
UPyD			4.50%
LV-ECOLO			1.18%
Others			1.67%
Blank ballots			2.16%

Parliamentary seats

PP			73.33%
PSOE			24.44%
IU-V-RM			2.22%

Notes

1 2 3 4 5 6 Poll results are shown projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other polls, a rule of three has been applied to the poll projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.

References

↑ "Law 2/1987, of 12 February, electoral of the Region of Murcia".

Elections in the Region of Murcia

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