United States Senate election in Maryland, 2010
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The 2010 United States Senate election in Maryland was held on November 2, 2010. Primary elections were held on September 14, 2010. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Barbara Mikulski won re-election to a fifth term.
Background
According to Baltimore Sun columnist David Nitkin, Mikulski had indicated she planned to seek re-election to a fifth term. If Mikulski were to win re-election and serve the full term, she would tie Paul Sarbanes as the longest-serving senator in state history, and also becoming the longest-serving female senator in history, turning 80 years old in the process.[1] On February 15, 2010, rumors began to circulate that Mikulski would not seek reelection; however, these were denied by Democratic sources soon after.[2][3]
She has previously won senate elections in 1986, 1992, 1998, and 2004 by margins of 21, 42, 41 and 31 percentage points, respectively. Additionally, in the general election, state parties are expected to focus much of their attention on the seats of Governor Martin O'Malley and first-term Congressman Frank Kratovil, the latter of whom won a surprise victory in a conservative district of the state.[1] Nitkin[1] and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball[4] consider her seat as overwhelmingly "safe."
Primary results
Democratic primary
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Barbara Mikulski (Incumbent) | 388,868 | 82.32 | |
| Democratic | Christopher J. Garner | 35,579 | 7.53 | |
| Democratic | A. Billy Bob Jaworski | 15,131 | 3.20 | |
| Democratic | Blaine Taylor | 10,787 | 2.28 | |
| Democratic | Theresa C. Scaldaferri | 7,913 | 1.68 | |
| Democratic | Sanquetta Taylor | 7,365 | 1.56 | |
| Democratic | Lih Young | 6,733 | 1.43 | |
| Total votes | 472,376 | 100 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
- Joseph Alexander
- Barry Steve Asbury, newspaper publisher
- Neil Cohen, dentist
- Stephens Dempsey
- Samuel R. Graham, Sr.
- John B. Kimble, perennial candidate
- Gregory Kump
- Daniel W. McAndrew
- Jim Rutledge, attorney
- Eddie Vendetti, engineer
- Erick Wargotz, Queen Anne's County Commissioner
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Eric Wargotz | 92,464 | 38.57 | |
| Republican | Jim Rutledge | 73,311 | 30.58 | |
| Republican | Joseph Alexander | 14,026 | 5.85 | |
| Republican | Neil H. Cohen | 13,613 | 5.68 | |
| Republican | Stephens Dempsey | 9,325 | 3.89 | |
| Republican | Daniel W. McAndrew | 8,460 | 3.53 | |
| Republican | John B. Kimble | 8,081 | 3.37 | |
| Republican | Samuel R. Graham, Sr. | 6,600 | 2.75 | |
| Republican | Barry Steve Asbury | 5,900 | 2.46 | |
| Republican | Eddie Vendetti | 5,046 | 2.10 | |
| Republican | Gregory Kump | 2,931 | 1.22 | |
| Total votes | 239,757 | 100 | ||
General election
Candidates
Major
- Barbara Mikulski (D), incumbent U.S. Senator
- Eric Wargotz (R), Queen Anne's County Commissioner and physician
Minor
- Don Kaplan (Independent)
- Richard Shawver (Constitution)
- Kenniss Henry (Green)
- Natasha Pettigrew (deceased) was the Green Party candidate. On September 19, while cycling, Pettigrew was hit by an SUV. Her mother, Kenniss Henry, was chosen by the Green Party to replace Pettigrew on the ballot.[6]
Campaign
Dr. Eric Wargotz released two television ads, in the first he created and introduced the term "insidersaurus": comparing Mikulski to a dinosaur by calling her a political "insidersaurus" for being in Washington for over thirty years (a long-term political incumbent.) A second ad showed a hammer hitting a brick wall, breaking it down and citing criticisms of Mikulski's record as a U.S. Senator. Mikulski released positive advertisements emphsizing education and job creation.[7]
Despite Eric Wargotz's limited campaign and resources he received the highest percentage of votes against Mikulski as an incumbent U.S. Senator (over 20 years.)
Debates
Despite repeated requests by the Eric Wargotz Campaign formal debate(s) was declined by the incumbent U.S. Senator. The two candidates did appear together on Maryland Public Television (MPT) fielding common questions posed to both by the moderator but no formal debate was held.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid D[8] | October 19, 2010 |
| Rothenberg | Safe D[9] | October 15, 2010 |
| Swing State Project | Safe D | |
| RealClearPolitics | Safe D[10] | October 19, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D[11] | October 14, 2010 |
| CQ Politics | Safe D[12] | October 19, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Barbara Mikulski (D) | Eric Wargotz (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | October 24, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 56% | 38% | 2% | 4% |
| Baltimore Sun/OpinionWorks (report) | October 15–20, 2010 | 798 | ± 3.5% | 59% | 32% | –– | 8% |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. (report) | October 11–16, 2010 | 816 | ± 3.5% | 55% | 38% | –– | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | September 15, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 38% | 4% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | August 20, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 55% | 39% | 3% | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | July 10–12, 2010 | 569 | ± 4.1% | 59% | 27% | –– | 14% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | July 8, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 58% | 33% | 2% | 7% |
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt | Cash minus debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barbara Mikulski (D) | $3,690,724 | $2,792,437 | $1,772,774 | $0 | $1,772,774 |
| Eric Wargotz (R) | $1,210,327 | $743,392 | $466,931 | $459,600 | $-7331. |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[13] | |||||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Barbara Mikulski (Incumbent) | 1,140,531 | 62.19% | -2.61% | |
| Republican | Eric Wargotz | 655,666 | 35.75% | +2.05% | |
| Green | Kenniss Henry | 20,717 | 1.13% | +0.06% | |
| Constitution | Richard Shawver | 14,746 | 0.80% | +0.42% | |
| Write-ins | 2,213 | 0.11% | +0.05% | ||
| Majority | 484,865 | 26.44% | |||
| Total votes | 1,833,873 | 100 | |||
| Democratic hold | Swing | ||||
References
- 1 2 3 Nitkin, David (November 12, 2008). "Smooth sailing for Mikulski". Maryland Politics Blog. Baltimore Sun. Retrieved January 9, 2009.
- ↑ Geraghty, Jim (February 15, 2010). "Let's Get Real: Barbara Mikulski Does Not Fear a Loss This Year.". National Review. Retrieved February 16, 2010.
- ↑ Hockstader, Lee (February 16, 2010). "Mikulski another Dem retirement? Not likely.". The Washington Post. Retrieved February 16, 2010.
- ↑ "Senate 2010: A three-peat for Democrats or Comeback for the GOP?". Crystal Ball. February 19, 2009. Archived from the original on January 7, 2010.
- 1 2 "Maryland Senate Primary Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. September 17, 2010. Retrieved September 17, 2010.
- ↑ Natasha Pettigrew – Mother to replace Green Party nominee for Senate – Baltimore Sun
- ↑ Pershing, Ben; Dropp, Kyle (October 4, 2010). "Mikulski leads despite drop in popularity". The Washington Post.
- ↑ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 19, 2010.
- ↑ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 19, 2010.
- ↑ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 19, 2010.
- ↑ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 19, 2010.
- ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 19, 2010.
- ↑ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Maryland". fec.gov. Retrieved May 1, 2010.
- ↑ Maryland State Board of Elections
External links
- Maryland State Board of Elections
- U.S. Congress candidates for Maryland at Project Vote Smart
- Maryland U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
- Campaign contributions from Open Secrets
- 2010 Maryland Polls graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Election 2010: Maryland Senate from Rasmussen Reports
- Maryland Senate from Real Clear Politics
- 2010 Maryland Senate Race from CQ Politics
- Race profile from The New York Times
- Candidate blogs at The Baltimore Sun
- Official campaign sites
- Barbara Mikulski for U.S. Senate incumbent
- Daniel W. McAndrew for U.S. Senate
- Rutledge for U.S. Senate
- Vaughn for U.S. Senate
- Wargotz for U.S. Senate
- Dr. Neil Cohen for U.S. Senate
| Preceded by 2006 Ben Cardin (D) |
United States Senate election in Maryland 2010 Barbara Mikulski (D) |
Succeeded by 2012 Ben Cardin (D) |