United States Senate election in Ohio, 2010
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The 2010 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 2, 2010, as one of many Ohio elections in 2010. Incumbent two-term Republican U.S. Senator George Voinovich decided to retire instead of seeking a third term.[2] Republican Rob Portman won the open seat.
Democratic primary
Background
Congressman Tim Ryan, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher were considered leading contenders to run against George Voinovich.[3] Ohio Governor Ted Strickland urged Jennifer Brunner to run for re-election rather than run for the Senate.[4] Cuyahoga County Commissioner Peter Lawson Jones and Ohio State Representative Tyrone Yates considered running, but both withdrew from consideration.[5][6]
Candidates
Campaign
On February 17, 2009, Brunner and Fisher both officially announced their candidacies for the now-open seat election, with Strickland officially endorsing Fisher.[4][7][8] Ryan declined to run and endorsed Fisher in July.[9]
Fisher was endorsed by Governor Ted Strickland and U.S. Representatives John Boccieri, Tim Ryan, Zack Space, and Charlie Wilson.[10]
Polling in late 2009 and January 2010 showed Brunner to be more competitive than Fisher in a general election matchup against Portman, while Fisher and Brunner were deadlocked in Democratic primary polling.[11]
Charlene Renee Bradley and Traci Johnson also filed to run in the Democratic primary.[12]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jennifer Brunner | Lee Fisher | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | January 29-Feb. 2, 2009 | 492 | ± 4.4% | 16% | 18% | 14% | 53% |
| Quinnipiac University | March 10–15, 2009 | 506 | ± 4.4% | 14% | 18% | 1% | 46% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 28-May 4, 2009 | 437 | ± 4.7% | 16% | 20% | 1% | 59% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 26-July 1, 2009 | 483 | ± 4.5% | 21% | 24% | 2% | 51% |
| Research 2000 | July 6–8, 2009 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 17% | 22% | — | 61% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 10–13, 2009 | 421 | ± 4.8% | 17% | 26% | 2% | 55% |
| Quinnipiac University | November 5–9, 2009 | 394 | ± 4.9% | 22% | 24% | 1% | 51% |
| Quinnipiac University | February 16–21, 2010 | 604 | ± 4.0% | 20% | 29% | 2% | 48% |
| Quinnipiac University | March 25–28, 2010 | 978 | ± 3.1% | 26% | 33% | 1% | 40% |
| Research 2000 | April 5–7, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.0% | 26% | 35% | — | 39% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 22–26, 2010 | 987 | ± 3.1% | 24% | 41% | 1% | 34% |
| Suffolk University | April 27–29, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 27% | 55% | — | 18% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 29-May 2, 2010 | 980 | ± 3.1% | 23% | 43% | 1% | 32% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Lee Fisher | 380,189 | 55.6 | |
| Democratic | Jennifer Brunner | 304,026 | 44.4 | |
| Total votes | 684,206 | 100 | ||
Republican primary
Background
With rumors circulating about Voinovich's possible retirement, former Director of the Office of Management and Budget, United States Trade Representative, and Congressman Rob Portman and State Auditor Mary Taylor were considered the main contenders for the Republican nomination.[14] Former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell was also considered a potential candidate, but declined in order to run for chairman of the Republican National Committee.[15]
Candidate
- Rob Portman, former U.S. Representative, former United States Trade Representative and former Director of the Office of Management and Budget
Campaign
When Voinovich made his retirement official, Portman declared his candidacy the next day.[16] Thomas Ganley, a Cleveland car dealer, launched his campaign for the nomination in April, after Portman had collected support from most of the Ohio Republican establishment.[17] Taylor officially declined to run in May and was announced as gubernatorial candidate John Kasich's running mate on January 12, 2010 [18]
Ganley was the only other declared candidate, but on February 17, 2010, he announced that he would switch races and run against Betty Sutton in Ohio's 13th congressional district instead,[19] leaving Portman as the only Republican candidate. He had over $7 million in campaign funds.[20]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rob Portman | 667,369 | 100 | |
| Total votes | 657,354 | 100 | ||
General election
Candidates
- Rob Portman (R), former U.S. Congressman and Cabinet member for George W. Bush
- Lee Fisher (D), Lieutenant Governor, former Ohio Attorney General, former State Senator, and former State Representative
- Dan La Botz (Socialist Party)
- Eric Deaton (Constitution Party)
- Michael Pryce (Independent)
Campaign
When the incumbent announced he would retire, Portman jumped into the race in early 2009. During the two-year time period, Portman raised over $9 million.[22] Originally, the election was seen as a toss up.[23] His experience as a former Bush official was considered to be a big problem for Portman. Both President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden campaigned for Fisher.[24]
Television advertisements were very negative. Fisher attacked Portman for helping to ship jobs overseas during his entire political career, backing deals that shipped jobs overseas, and the trade deficit with China, which grew by over $41 billion.[25] Portman claimed in response that most jobs were being lost to other states, not countries.[26] Portman attacked Fisher for supporting Obama's stimulus and cap and trade.[27][28]
Debates
Three debates were held in Cleveland, Columbus, and Toledo.[29] The first one was in Toledo on October 5. The second one was in Cleveland on October 8, while the third was in Columbus on October 12.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Safe R[30] | October 22, 2010 |
| Electoral-vote.com | Strong R[31] | October 21, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight.com | R[32] | October 21, 2010 |
| Rothenberg | R favored[33] | October 15, 2010 |
| Swing State Project | Safe R | |
| RealClearPolitics | Solid R[34] | October 22, 2010 |
| Rasmussen Reports | Solid R[35] | October 20, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R[36] | October 21, 2010 |
| CQ Politics | Safe R[37] | October 22, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lee Fisher (D) | Rob Portman (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (report) | January 17–18, 2009 | 578 | ± 4.1% | 39% | 41% | — | 20% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | January 29-Feb. 2, 2009 | 1,127 | ± 2.9% | 42% | 27% | 1% | 29% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | March 10–15, 2009 | 1,299 | ± 2.7% | 41% | 33% | 1% | 24% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | April 28-May 4, 2009 | 1,079 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 31% | 1% | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | June 17–19, 2009 | 619 | ± 3.9% | 41% | 32% | — | 27% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | June 26-July 1, 2009 | 1,259 | ± 2.8% | 37% | 33% | 2% | 26% |
| Research 2000 (report) | July 6–8, 2009 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 42% | 35% | — | 23% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | September 10–13, 2009 | 1,074 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 31% | 1% | 26% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | September 23, 2009 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 41% | 6% | 14% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | November 5–9, 2009 | 1,123 | ± 2.9% | 36% | 39% | — | 24% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | December 7, 2009 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | 38% | 8% | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | January 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 37% | 44% | 4% | 14% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | February 5–6, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 43% | 5% | 13% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | February 16–21, 2010 | 1,662 | ± 2.4% | 37% | 40% | 2% | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 4, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 44% | 5% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | March 20–21, 2010 | 630 | ± 3.9% | 36% | 41% | — | 23% |
| Quinnipiac (report) | March 23–29, 2010 | 1,526 | ± 2.5% | 41% | 37% | 1% | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 30, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 43% | 4% | 14% |
| Research 2000 (report) | April 5–7, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 39% | — | 18% |
| Quinnipiac Polling (report) | April 21–26, 2010 | 1,568 | ± 2.5% | 40% | 37% | 1% | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | May 7, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 42% | 4% | 14% |
| UC/The Ohio Poll (report) | May 11–20, 2010 | 668 | ± 3.8% | 47% | 46% | — | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | June 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 43% | 4% | 10% |
| Quinnipiac Polling (report) | June 22–27, 2010 | 1,107 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 40% | 1% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | June 26–27, 2010 | 482 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 38% | –– | 22% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | June 29, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 43% | 4% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | July 19, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 39% | 45% | 5% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | August 2, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 44% | 5% | 11% |
| Reuters/Ipsos (report) | August 6–8, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 36% | 43% | — | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | August 16, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 37% | 45% | 5% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | August 27–29, 2010 | 475 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 45% | — | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | August 30, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 39% | 44% | 7% | 11% |
| The Columbus Dispatch (report) | August 25-Sept. 3, 2010 | 1,622 | ± 2.2% | 37% | 50% | 3% | 9% |
| Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) | September 11, 2010 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 41% | 48% | 3% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | September 13, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 49% | 2% | 8% |
| CNN/Time Magazine (report) | September 10–14, 2010 | 820 | ± 3.5% | 41% | 52% | 4% | 2% |
| SurveyUSA (report) | September 14, 2010 | 1000 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 49% | 7% | 4% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | September 17, 2010 | 730 | ± 3.6% | 35% | 55% | — | 1% |
| Ohio Newspapers Poll/UC (report) | September 24, 2010 | 850 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 55% | — | 5% |
| Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) | September 25, 2010 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 37% | 50% | 3% | 11% |
| CBS/NY Times report) | September 23–27, 2010 | 941 | ± 3.0% | 34% | 45% | — | 18% |
| Reuters/Ipsos report) | September 23–25, 2010 | 440 | ± 3.0% | 37% | 50% | — | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | September 27, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 42% | 51% | 1% | 6% |
| Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) | October 2, 2010 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 37% | 53% | 2% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | September 29-Oct. 3, 2010 | 1,025 | ± 3.1% | 36% | 55% | — | — |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion (report) | Oct. 5-8, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 52% | 6% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | October 11, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 34% | 57% | 2% | 7% |
| University of Cincinnati (report) | October 8–13, 2010 | 705 | ± 3.7% | 36% | 58% | 1% | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | October 12–17, 2010 | 1,183 | ± 2.8% | 34% | 55% | 1% | 10% |
| University of Cincinnati (report) | October 14–18, 2010 | 839 | ± 3.3% | 39% | 58% | 0% | 3% |
| CNN/Time/Opinion Research (report) | October 15–19, 2010 | 1,502 | ± 2.5% | 40% | 55% | 2% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | October 20, 2010 | 686 | ± 2.5% | 34% | 55% | — | 2% |
| Wilson Research Strategies (report) | October 20–21, 2010 | 500 | ± 3.0% | 38% | 49% | — | 8% |
| SurveyUSA (report) | October 22–26, 2010 | 950 | ± 4.0% | 37% | 52% | — | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | October 26, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 33% | 57% | 3% | 7% |
| Columbus Dispatch (report) | October 20–29, 2010 | 1,445 | ± 2.3% | 40% | 56% | 0% | 4% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | October 25–30, 2010 | 848 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 56% | 1% | 8% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion (report) | October 27–29, 2010 | 460 | ± 4.6% | 40% | 57% | 3% | — |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | October 28–30, 2010 | 1,356 | ± 2.7% | 39% | 57% | 0% | 4% |
| University of Cincinnati (report) | October 27–31, 2010 | 930 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 60% | 0% | 1% |
| University of Cincinnati (report) | November 1, 2010 | 930 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 61% | 0% | 0% |
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Portman (R) | $15,998,398 | $10,493,211 | $5,505,186 | $0 |
| Lee Fisher (D) | $6,191,361 | $5,882,729 | $308,631 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[38] | ||||
Results
Winning the election, Portman received 57% of the votes. He received the majority of votes in 82 of 88 counties and in 15 of 18 Congressional districts, including the district of liberal U.S. Congressman Dennis Kucinich.[39]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rob Portman | 2,168,742 | 56.85% | -6.61% | |
| Democratic | Lee Fisher | 1,503,297 | 39.40% | +2.85% | |
| Constitution | Eric Deaton | 65,856 | 1.72% | N/A | |
| Independent | Michael Pryce | 50,101 | 1.31% | N/A | |
| Socialist | Daniel LaBotz | 26,454 | 0.69% | N/A | |
| N/A | Arthur Sullivan (write-in) | 648 | 0.02% | N/A | |
| Majority | 665,445 | 17.44% | |||
| Total votes | 3,815.098 | 100.0 | |||
| Republican hold | Swing | NA | |||
See also
References
- ↑ Ohio Senate election results – Politics – Decision 2010 – msnbc.com
- ↑ Dubail, Jean (January 12, 2009). "It's official: Voinovich to retire from Senate after 2010". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Retrieved November 10, 2009.
- ↑ Skolnick, David (January 13, 2009). "Will Ryan make a run for Senate?". The Vindicator. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
- 1 2 Naymik, Mark (February 3, 2009). "Ohio Democrats brace for collision over open Senate seat". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
- ↑ Koff, Stephen (February 26, 2009). "3rd Democratic candidate emerges for Voinovich's Senate seat; analyst calls it a toss-up". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
- ↑ Wilkinson, H (August 25, 2009). "Yates endorses Fisher". Cincinnati Enquirer. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
- ↑ Naymik, Mark (February 17, 2009). "Jennifer Brunner announces candidacy for U.S. Senate". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
- ↑ Naymik, Mark (February 17, 2009). "Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher joins the race for U.S. Senate seat". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
- ↑ "U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan endorses Ohio Lt. Gov. Fisher for Senate seat". The Vindicator. July 27, 2009. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
- ↑ "Elected Officials // Endorsements // Lee Fisher for Ohio". Fisherforohio.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
- ↑ Chuck Crow, The Plain Dealer. "Real test of U.S. Senate candidate Jennifer Brunner coming soon". Cleveland.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
- ↑ "Candidates File for the May 4 State Primary". Ohio Secretary of State. February 18, 2010. Retrieved February 24, 2010.
- ↑ "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
- ↑ Larkin, Brent (January 9, 2009). "Voinovich in 2010? We'll see". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
- ↑ "Portman says he's leaning toward Senate run". Columbus Dispatch. January 13, 2009. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
- ↑ Hershey, William (January 13, 2009). "Portman announces for U.S. Senate, to start statewide campaign tour". Dayton Daily News. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
- ↑ Wendel, Kim (April 4, 2009). "Auto dealer Ganley expected to announce run for Voinovich's Senate seat". WKYC. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
- ↑ "Ohio Auditor Mary Taylor won't seek re-election, instead will run for lieutenant governor.". cleveland.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
- ↑ Gonzales, Nathan (February 17, 2010). "Ganley Switching Races in Ohio, Will Challenge Sutton". CQ Politics. Retrieved February 17, 2010.
- ↑ Eric Kleefeld (2010-02-17). "Tom Ganley: February 2010 | TPMDC". Tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
- ↑ My Results Archived copy at the Library of Congress (November 9, 2011).
- ↑ Race Detail Display Page : Roll Call
- ↑ CQ Politics | Poll Tracker - Ohio Senate: Portman Even With Fisher, Leads Brunner
- ↑ Prospects in Ohio Looking Better for Senate GOP : Roll Call
- ↑ PolitiFact | Lee Fisher hammers Rob Portman on record in Bush administration
- ↑ Portman targets Fisher with claim that most jobs Ohio lost went to other states: PolitiFact Ohio | cleveland.com
- ↑ Democrats Use Portman Ad As Opening To Attack - The Eye (CQ Politics)
- ↑ RealClearPolitics - Portman Hits Fisher on Jobs in New Ad
- ↑ U.S. Senate candidates Rob Portman and Lee Fisher agree to debates in Cleveland, Columbus and Toledo | cleveland.com
- ↑ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 22, 2010.
- ↑ "Electoral-vote.com". Retrieved October 22, 2010.
- ↑ "FiveThirtyEight Forecasts: Ohio Senate". New York Times. Retrieved October 22, 2010.
- ↑ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 22, 2010.
- ↑ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 22, 2010.
- ↑ "Election 2010: Senate Balance Of Power". Rasmussen Reports. Retrieved October 22, 2010.
- ↑ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 22, 2010.
- ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 22, 2010.
- ↑ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Ohio". fec.gov. Retrieved July 21, 2010.
- ↑ http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_97/-204148-1.html
- ↑ "State of Ohio 2010 General Election November 2, 2010 Unofficial Results". Ohio Secretary of State. November 2, 2010. Archived from the original on November 9, 2011. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
External links
- Ohio Secretary of State - Elections
- U.S. Congress candidates for Ohio at Project Vote Smart
- Ohio U.S. Senate 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
- Campaign contributions from Open Secrets
- 2010 Ohio Senate General Election: Rob Portman (R) vs Lee Fisher (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Election 2010: Ohio Senate from Rasmussen Reports
- 2010 Ohio Senate Race from Real Clear Politics
- 2010 Ohio Senate Race from CQ Politics
- Race profile from The New York Times
- Official campaign websites
- Jennifer Brunner for U.S. Senate
- Eric Deaton for U.S. Senate
- Lee Fisher for U.S. Senate
- Rob Portman for U.S. Senate
- Dan La Botz for U.S. Senate