Peak wheat

Food production per person increased since 1961.

Peak wheat is the concept that agricultural production, due to its high use of water and energy inputs,^[1] is subject to the same profile as oil and other fossil fuel production.^[2][3][4] The central tenet is that a point is reached, the "peak", beyond which agricultural production plateaus and does not grow any further,^[5] and may even go into permanent decline.

Based on current supply and demand factors for agricultural commodities (e.g. changing diets in the emerging economies, biofuels, declining acreage under irrigation, growing global population, stagnant agricultural productivity growth), some commentators are predicting a long-term annual production shortfall of around 2% which, based on the highly inelastic demand curve for food crops, could lead to sustained price increases in excess of 10% a year - sufficient to double crop prices in seven years.^[6][7][8]

According to the World Resources Institute, global per capita food production has been increasing substantially for the past several decades.^[9]

China

Water is a necessary input for food production. Two billion people face acute water shortage this century as Himalayan glaciers melt.^[10] Water shortages in China have helped lower the wheat harvest from its peak of 123 million tons in 1997 to below 100 million tons in recent years.^[11] Of China's 617 cities, 300 are facing water shortages. In many, these shortfalls can be filled only by diverting water from agriculture. Farmers cannot compete economically with industry for water in China.^[12] China is developing a grain deficit even with the over-pumping of its aquifers. Grain production in China has been said to have peaked in 1998 at 392 million tons, falling below 350 million tons in 2000, 2001, and 2002, although such was 571 million tons in 2011 after eight consecutive years of increase from 2003 to 2011.^[13] The annual deficits have been filled by drawing down the country's extensive grain reserves, and by reliance on the world grain market.^[14] Some predict that China will soon become the world's largest importer of grain.^[15]

Figures from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) contradict many claims that the country's wheat supply is unstable. According to USDA, in 2014 China imported 1.5 billion tonnes (GT) of wheat, and had relatively small exports of 1 GT. However, China produced 126 GT of wheat in 2014, according to the same source. For comparison, Egypt was 2014's largest importer, with imports of 10.7 GT. If China had imported more than Egypt, it still would have produced almost 10 times more wheat than it imported, while in fact it produced more than 100 times more.^[16]

Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan have restricted exports and levied tariffs on wheat. Higher prices are not meeting any opposition from desperate buyers.^[17]

See also

Other resource peaks

References

Wheat
Types	Common Durum Einkorn Emmer Khorasan Norin 10 Red Fife Spelt Winter wheat
Agronomy	Wheat diseases list Wheat mildew Hessian fly
Trade	Australian Wheat Board Canadian Wheat Board Corn exchange Exports International Wheat Council Peak wheat Production statistics Protein premium Wheat pools in Canada
Plant parts and their uses	Stalk Straw Seed Bran Germ Chaff (husk) Endosperm Gluten
Basic preparation	None Berries or groats Milling Farina Flour Middlings Semolina Parboiling Bulgur
As an ingredient	Bread Couscous Cracker Flatbread Pasta Wheat beer Wheat germ oil Wheat gluten
Associated human diseases	Anaphylaxis Gluten-related disorders coeliac disease non-celiac gluten sensitivity wheat allergy dermatitis herpetiformis ataxia
Related concepts	Bread riot Plant breeding Refined grains Staple food Wheatpaste Whole grain Shattering Tell Abu Hureyra Tell Aswad
Category

Peak oil
Core issues	Peak oil Mitigation of peak oil Predicting the timing of peak oil Hubbert peak theory Olduvai theory
Results/responses	Hirsch report Rimini protocol Price of petroleum 2000s energy crisis Energy crisis Export Land Model Food vs. fuel Oil reserves Pickens Plan Simple living Swing producer Renewable energy commercialization Permaculture
People	Albert Allen Bartlett Colin J. Campbell John Michael Greer David Goodstein Richard Heinberg M. King Hubbert James Kunstler Jean Laherrère Jeremy Leggett Dale Allen Pfeiffer Richard Rainwater Michael C. Ruppert Matthew Simmons Richard C. Duncan Kenneth S. Deffeyes
Books	The End of Oil The Long Emergency Out of Gas The Party's Over Power Down Beyond Oil Twilight in the Desert
Documentary films	A Crude Awakening Collapse The End of Suburbia Oil Factor PetroApocalypse Now? How Cuba Survived Peak Oil What a Way to Go Gashole Fuel (film) Escape from Suburbia Crude (2007 film)
Organizations	The Oil Drum Energy Watch Group ODAC OPEC OAPEC IEA IRENA Post Carbon Institute REN21 Transition town
Other peaks	Car Coal Copper Food Gas Gold Minerals Phosphorus Soil Uranium Water Wheat Wood