Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

In the run up to the next United Kingdom general election, various organisations are expected to carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from after the previous general election, held on 7 May 2015, to the present day. Under fixed-term legislation, the next general election is scheduled to be held on 7 May 2020.

Most opinion polls cover only Great Britain.

Most YouGov polls include SNP and Plaid Cymru as a single option.

Graphical summary

UK Opinion Polling for the 2020 election including polls which started on or before 25 November 2016 (moving average is calculated from the last ten polls)
  Conservative
  Labour
  UKIP
  Liberal Democrats
  SNP
  Greens

Poll results

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order.[1] The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The "Lead" column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. Poll results are generally rounded to the nearest percentage point (where a result is less than 0.5%, but more than zero, it is indicated by '*').

The six parties with the largest numbers of votes in the 2015 general election are listed here. Other parties are listed in the "Other" column.

  Conservative Party (Con)
  Labour Party (Lab)
  UK Independence Party (UKIP)
  Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)
  Scottish National Party (SNP)

2016

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem SNP Green Others Lead
1 Dec Richmond Park by-election
28–29 NovYouGov/The Times 1,62439%27%14%9%6%[lower-alpha 1]4%1%12%
28 NovPaul Nuttall is elected the leader of UKIP
25–27 NovICM/Guardian 2,00944%28%12%7%4%4%2%16%
21–22 NovYouGov/The Times 1,69341%28%12%9%6%[lower-alpha 1]4%0%13%
18–20 NovICM/The Guardian 2,03142%28%11%9%4%3%2%14%
15–18 NovOpinium 2,00541%29%12%7%6%3%1%12%
14–15 NovYouGov/The Times1,71742%28%11%8%7%[lower-alpha 1]4%1%14%
11–14 Nov Ipsos MORI 1,01342%33%7%10%5%[lower-alpha 1]3%1%9%
1–4 Nov Opinium 2,00140%32%13%6%6%4%8%
31 Oct–1 NovYouGov/The Times1,60841%27%11%10%6%[lower-alpha 1]4%1%14%
28–30 Oct ICM/The Guardian 2,04043%27%12%8%4%5%1%16%
24–25 OctYouGov/The Times1,65540%27%11%11%7%[lower-alpha 1]3%1%13%
19–24 OctBMG1,54642%28%12% 8%5%4%1%14%
20 Oct By-elections in Witney and Batley & Spen
19–20 OctYouGov/Election Data1,60842%26%12%8%6%[lower-alpha 1]5%1%16%
14–17 OctIpsos MORI1,01647%29%6%7%6%[lower-alpha 1]4%1%18%
11–12 OctYouGov/The Times1,66942%28%11%9%6%[lower-alpha 1]3%0%14%
7–9 Oct ICM/The Guardian 2,01743%26%11%8%4%6%2%17%
28–29 Sep YouGov/The Times1,65839%30%13%8%6%[lower-alpha 1]3%0%9%
24 SepJeremy Corbyn is re-elected as leader of the Labour Party
21–23 SepICM/Sun on Sunday 2,01541%26%14%8%5%4%2%15%
20–23 SepBMG 2,02639%28%13%8%5%5%2%11%
19–21 SepYouGov/The Times 3,28539%30%13%8%6%[lower-alpha 1]3%1%9%
16 SepDiane James is elected the leader of UKIP
13–14 Sep YouGov/The Times 1,73238%31%13%7%6%4%7%
10–14 Sep Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,00040%34%9%6%4%[lower-alpha 1]5%1%6%
9–11 Sep ICM/The Guardian 2,01341%27%14%8%5%4%2%14%
4–5 Sep YouGov/The Times 1,61640%29%13%7%7%[lower-alpha 1]3%11%
2 SepCaroline Lucas and Jonathan Bartley are elected joint leaders of the Green Party
30–31 Aug YouGov/The Times 1,68738%30%14%7%6%[lower-alpha 1]4%8%
26–28 Aug ICM/The Guardian 2,04041%27%13%9%4%4%2%14%
22–23 Aug YouGov/The Times 1,66040%29%13%8%6%[lower-alpha 1]3%1%11%
11–22 Aug Lord Ashcroft Polls 8,01140%31%13%7%5%3%1%9%
16–17 Aug YouGov/The Times 1,67738%30%13%9%7%[lower-alpha 1]4%8%
13–15 Aug Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,017 45%34%6%7%4%4%1% 11%
12–15 Aug ICM 2,010 40%28%14%8%4%4%2%12%
8–9 Aug YouGov/The Times 1,692 38%31%13%8%7%[lower-alpha 1]4%7%
5–8 Aug TNS 1,199 39%26%11%10%4%7%2%13%
1–2 Aug YouGov/The Times 1,722 42%28%12%8%6%[lower-alpha 1]3%1% 14%
25–26 Jul YouGov/The Times 1,680 40%28%13%8%7%[lower-alpha 1]4%1% 12%
22–24 Jul ICM 2,012 43%27%13%8%4%4%1% 16%
19–22 Jul Opinium/Observer 2,231 37%31%15%6%6%4%1% 6%
17–18 Jul YouGov 1,891 40%29%12%9%7%[lower-alpha 1]3%1%11%
13–15 Jul ICM 2,027 39%29%14%9%4%4% 2% 10%
13 JulTheresa May becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
9–11 Jul Ipsos MORI 1,02136%35%8%11%5%4%1%1%
8–10 Jul ICM 2,02538%30%15%8%5%4%1%8%
4–5 Jul Survation/Constitutional Research Council 1,00836%32%12%9%6%7%4%
1–3 Jul ICM 1,97937%30%15%8%5%4%2%7%
28–30 Jun Opinium 2,00634%29%17%7%5%4%2%5%
24–26 Jun ICM/The Guardian 2,00136%32%15%7%5%5%1%4%
24–25 Jun Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,033 32% 32% 16% 9% 4% 4% 2% Tie
23 JunUnited Kingdom European Union membership referendum: the UK votes to leave European Union; David Cameron announces he will resign as Prime Minister
20–22 JunOpinium3,01134%30%19%6%6%4%2%4%
14–17 JunOpinium/Observer2,00634%30%18%6%6%4%1%4%
16 JunTooting by-election; killing of MP Jo Cox, leading to a suspension of referendum campaigning until 19 June
15–16 JunComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday2,04634%29%19%8%5%4%2%5%
11–14 JunIpsos MORI/Evening Standard1,25735%34%10%9%5%4%3%1%
10–13 JunICM/The Guardian2,00134%30%19%8%4%4%1%4%
10–13 JunICM/The Guardian1,00034%33%14%9%4%5%2%1%
7–10 JunOpinium/Observer2,009 35%32%18%4%5%4%1%3%
31 May–3 JunOpinium/Observer 2,007 34%30%18%6%6%4%2%4%
27–29 MayICM/The Guardian 2,052 36%31%17%7%4%4%2%5%
27–29 MayICM/The Guardian 1,004 36%32%15%7%4%3%2%4%
17–19 MayOpinium/Observer2,00835%30%18%5%6%5%2%5%
14–16 MayIpsos MORI/Evening Standard1,00236%34%10%8%5%5%2%2%
13–15 MayICM/The Guardian1,00236%34%13%7%4%4%2%2%
13–15 MayICM/The Guardian2,04834%32%17%7%5%4%1%2%
11–12 MayComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday2,04336%30%17%8%5%4%6%
5 MayUnited Kingdom elections, 2016 including the Ogmore and Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough by-elections
26–29 AprOpinium/Observer2,00538%30%15%5%5%5%2%8%
25–26 AprYouGov/The Times1,65030%33%20%6%8%[lower-alpha 1]3%3%
22–26 AprBMG Research1,37533%32%18%6%5%4%2%1%
16–18 Apr Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,026 38%35%11%6%6%3%1%3%
15–17 AprICM/The Guardian1,00338%33%13%7%5%3%1%5%
15–17 AprICM/The Guardian2,00836%31%16%7%4%4%2%5%
13–14 AprComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday2,03635%30%16%8%5%4%1%5%
11–12 AprYouGov/The Times1,63931%34%17%8%7%[lower-alpha 1]3%3%
29 Mar–1 AprOpinium/Observer1,96633%32%17%5%6%4%2%1%
24–29 MarBMG Research 1,29836%31%16%7%5%5%2%5%
19–22 MarIpsos MORI1,02336%34%11%10%5%3%2%2%
18–20 MarComRes/Daily Mail1,00237%35%9%7%5%4%2%2%
16–17 MarYouGov/The Times1,69133%34%16%6%6%[lower-alpha 1]3%2%1%
16 MarGeorge Osborne delivers the 2016 United Kingdom budget
11–13 MarICM/The Guardian1,00136%36%11%8%3%3%1%Tie
9–10 MarComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday2,05938%29%16%7%4%4%1%9%
21–23 FebYouGov/The Times3,48237%30%16%8%6%[lower-alpha 1]3%7%
17–23 FebBMG Research1,26838%30%16%5%5%5%2%8%
19–22 FebComRes/Daily Mail1,00038%31%12%8%4%3%3%7%
13–16 FebIpsos MORI1,00139%33%12%6%6%3%2%6%
12–14 FebICM/The Guardian 1,00439%32%11%7%4%4%3%7%
10–12 FebComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,01841%27%15%9%5%3%1%14%
3–4 FebYouGov/The Times 1,67539%29%18%6%4%[lower-alpha 1]3%1%10%
27–28 JanYouGov 1,73539%30%17%6%4%[lower-alpha 1]3%1%9%
23–25 JanIpsos MORI 1,02740%31%11%7%5%4%1%9%
22–24 JanComRes/Daily Mail 1,00637%32%12%6%4%4%4%5%
15–17 JanICM/The Guardian 1,00140%35%10%6%4%3%2%5%
15–16 JanSurvation/Mail on Sunday1,01737%30%16%7%5%3%3%7%
13–15 JanComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday2,00440%29%16%7%4%3%1%11%
8–14 JanPanelbase/Sunday Times2,08739%31%14%6%5%5%8%

2015

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem SNP Green Others Lead
18–20 DecICM/The Guardian1,00339%34%10%7%4%3%3%5%
17–18 DecYouGov/The Times1,59839%29%17%6%5%[lower-alpha 1]3%1%10%
15–18 DecOpinium/Observer1,93638%30%16%5%6%5%2%8%
12–14 DecIpsos MORI/Evening Standard1,04038%31%9%9%5%6%2%7%
11–13 DecComRes/Daily Mail1,00137%33%11%7%4%5%2%4%
9–11 DecComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror2,04940%29%16%7%4%3%1%11%
3 DecOldham West and Royton by-election
30 Nov–1 DecYouGov/The Times1,65741%30%16%6%4%[lower-alpha 1]3%1%11%
20–24 NovYouGov4,31738%29%17%6%5%[lower-alpha 1]3%1%9%
20–22 NovComRes/Daily Mail1,00040%29%11%8%4%3%4%11%
18–20 NovComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror2,06742%27%15%7%5%3%1%15%
16–17 NovSurvation/Leave.EU[lower-alpha 2]1,54637%30%16%6%5%3%3%7%
14–17 NovIpsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,02141%34%7%7%6%4%-7%
11–17 NovBMG Research 1,33437%30%15%7%4%4%2%7%
13–15 NovICM/The Guardian 1,00639%33%12%7%5%3%1%6%
9–11 NovSurvation/Leave.EU[lower-alpha 2] 2,00736%30%15%7%5%3%3%6%
22–27 OctBMG Research 1,46737%31%15%6%4%5%2%6%
23–25 OctComRes/Daily Mail 1,00238%33%10%8%3%3%4%5%
17–19 OctIpsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,02136%32%12%10%5%3%2%4%
13–16 OctOpinium 1,93437%32%15%5%6%4%2%5%
14–15 OctComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 2,05142%29%13%7%5%3%1%13%
9–11 OctICM/The Guardian 1,00238%34%11%7%5%3%3%4%
29–30 SepYouGov/The Sun 2,06437%31%17%7%5%[lower-alpha 1]2%1%6%
26–28 SepComRes/Daily Mail 1,00939%30%12%9%4%4%3%9%
21–22 SepSurvation/Huffington Post 1,00837%32%13%9%5%3%1%5%
19–22 SepIpsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,25539%34%7%9%5%4%1%5%
17–18 SepYouGov/Sunday Times 1,60139%31%16%6%5%[lower-alpha 1]3%1%8%
15–18 SepOpinium 1,94237%32%14%6%5%4%1%5%
16–17 SepComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 2,01542%30%13%7%5%3%1%12%
11–13 SepICM/The Guardian 1,00638%32%13%8%5%3%2%6%
12 SepJeremy Corbyn is elected leader of the Labour Party and appointed Leader of the Opposition
3–4 SepSurvation/Mail on Sunday 1,00438%32%13%6%5%4%2%6%
21–23 AugComRes/Daily Mail 1,00142%28%9%8%5%6%3%14%
12–13 AugComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 2,03540%29%13%8%5%4%1%11%
12–13 AugSurvation/TSSA 1,00738%33%15%6%5%3%1%5%
7–9 AugICM/The Guardian1,00040%31%10%7%5%4%2%9%
24–26 JulComRes/Daily Mail1,00140%28%10%7%5%5%4%12%
18–20 JulIpsos MORI/Evening Standard1,02637%31%9%10%5%8%1%6%
16 JulTim Farron is elected leader of the Liberal Democrats
10–12 JulICM/The Guardian1,00538%34%13%6%4%4%1%4%
26–28 JunComRes/Daily Mail1,00239%27%11%9%5%6%3%12%
14–16 JunIpsos MORI/Evening Standard1,00539%30%8%9%5%6%2%9%
12–14 JunICM/The Guardian1,00437%31%13%8%5%5%1%6%
29–31 MayComRes/Daily Mail1,00041%29%10%8%5%5%3%12%
25–26 MayYouGov/The Sun1,70941%30%13%7%4%[lower-alpha 1]4%1%11%
8–9 MaySurvation/Mail on Sunday1,02740%31%12%6%5%3%2%9%
7 MayGeneral Election results (GB only)[2][3]29,980,10737.8%31.2%12.9%8.1%4.9%3.8%1.4%6.6%
  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 Includes those expressing a voting intention for Plaid Cymru.
  2. 1 2 This survey included respondents from Northern Ireland.

Sub-national polling

England

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem Green Others Lead
20 Oct 2016 By-elections in Witney and Batley & Spen
7-9 Oct 2016ICM/The Guardian 2,017 49%24%11%9%6%1%25%
5 May 2016United Kingdom local elections and Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough by-election
13–15 Jan 2016ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 1,468 42%31%17%6%3%1%11%
11–13 Dec 2015ComRes/Daily Mail 670 39%33%12%7%5%2%6%
9–11 Dec 2015ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 1522 43%30%17%7%3%-13%
12–13 Nov 2015Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,015 38%34%18%6%4%1%4%
7 May 2015 General Election results 25,571,204 41.0% 31.6% 14.1% 8.2% 4.2% 0.9% 9.4%

Scotland

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size SNP Lab Con Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead
28 Sep – 4 Oct 2016 BMG 1,010 49% 17% 20% 8% 2% 3% - 29%
9–15 Sep 2016 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,024 47% 16% 24% 5% 4% 3% - 23%
13 Jul 2016Theresa May becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
5 May 2016Scottish Parliament election
7–10 Sep 2015 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,010 52% 21% 16% 6% 2% 3% - 31%
15 Aug 2015Kezia Dugdale is elected leader of the Scottish Labour Party
3–7 Jul 2015 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,084 51% 21% 17% 7% 2% 2% - 30%
7 May 2015 General Election results 2,910,465 50.0% 24.3% 14.9% 7.5% 1.6% 1.3% 0.3% 25.7%

Wales

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con UKIP Plaid Lib Dem Green Others Lead
18–21 Sept 2016 Political Barometer 1,001 35% 29% 14% 13% 7% 2% 0 6%
30 Jun–4 Jul 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,010 34% 23% 16% 16% 8% 1% 2% 11%
5 May 2016Welsh Assembly election and Ogmore by-election
19–22 Apr 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,001 37% 23% 17% 13% 7% 2% 1% 14%
7–11 Apr 2016 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,011 38% 22% 18% 13% 6% 2% 4% 16%
7–18 March 2016 Economic and Social Research Council/Welsh Election Study 3,272 36% 25% 16% 14% 6% N/A 3%[4] 11%
9–11 Feb 2016YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer1,02437%27%18%13%4%1%-10%
30 Nov–4 Dec 2015YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer1,00537%27%17%12%4%2%-10%
21–24 Sep 2015YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer1,15142%26%16%10%5%2%-16%
24–26 Jun 2015YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer1,15137%28%15%12%4%3%1%9%
7 May 2015 General Election results 1,498,433 36.9% 27.2% 13.6% 12.1% 6.5% 2.6% 1.0% 9.7%

Northern Ireland

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size DUP SF UUP SDLP Alliance UKIP TUV Others Lead
5 May 2016Northern Ireland Assembly election
7 May 2015 General Election Results 718,103 25.7% 24.5% 16.0% 13.9% 8.6% 2.6% 2.3% 6.6% 1.2%

London

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con UKIP Lib Dem Green Others Lead
5 May 2016London Assembly and Mayoral elections and United Kingdom local elections
15-19 Apr 2016YouGov/LBC 1,017 46% 30%13%7%4%1%16%
4–6 Jan 2016YouGov/LBC 1,156 44% 37%11%4%2%2%7%
8 Jun–12 Aug 2015YouGov/LBC 3,436 42% 38%9%5%4%1%4%
7 May 2015 General Election results 3,536,251 43.7% 34.9% 8.1% 7.7% 4.9% 0.8% 8.8%

See also

References

  1. "Westminster Voting Intention". OpinionBee.uk. Retrieved 16 October 2016.
  2. "Election 2015: Results - National". BBC. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
  3. "Election 2015: Results - Northern Ireland". BBC. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
  4. including Green

External links

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