Opinion polling in the 43rd Canadian federal election

This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted from the 2015 Canadian federal election leading up to the 43rd Canadian federal election, which is scheduled for October 21, 2019.

Pre-campaign period

Graphical summary

Polling firm Last date
of polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP BQ Green Margin
of error[1]		 Sample
size[2]		 Polling method[3] Lead
EKOS November 22, 2016 PDF 41.2 31.2 13.0 2.4 8.2 ±2.2 pp 1,949 IVR 10.0
Abacus Data November 13, 2016 PDF 46 25 17 5 7 ±2.1 pp 2,200 online 21
Forum Research November 10, 2016 PDF 51 28 11 4 5 ±3 pp 1,474 IVR 23
Mainstreet Research November 6, 2016 HTML 49 29 13 4 5 ±1.38 pp 5,066 IVR 20
EKOS October 18, 2016 PDF 46.6 26.4 14.1 3.3 7.8 ±2.4 pp 1,622 online/telephone 20.2
Forum Research October 12, 2016 PDF 49 30 12 5 4 ±3 pp 1,437 IVR 19
Abacus Data October 12, 2016 PDF 45 28 14 5 6 ±2.6 pp 1,498 online 17
Forum Research September 21, 2016 PDF 47 34 9 6 3 ±3 pp 1,326 IVR 13
Mainstreet Research September 8, 2016 HTML 51 29 12 4 4 ±1.35 pp 5,250 IVR 22
Forum Research September 7, 2016 PDF 48 30 11 5 4 ±3 pp 1,370 IVR 18
Léger Marketing September 1, 2016 PDF 53 25 12 4 5 ±2.5 pp 1,535 online 28
Abacus Data August 25, 2016 PDF 46 28 16 4 5 ±2.2 pp 2,010 online 18
Forum Research August 6, 2016 PDF 50 31 10 4 4 ±3 pp 1,345 IVR 19
EKOS July 14, 2016 PDF 45.6 28.5 15.5 2.8 5.9 ±3.1 pp 1,003 online/telephone 17.1
Forum Research July 5, 2016 PDF 52 28 11 5 3 ±3 pp 1,429 IVR 24
Abacus Data June 16, 2016 PDF 44 28 16 5 6 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 16
Forum Research June 7, 2016 PDF 49 32 10 4 4 ±2 pp 2,271 IVR 17
EKOS June 7, 2016 PDF 44.7 26.9 12.4 4.1 7.8 ±2.0 pp 2,371 IVR 17.8
Ipsos Reid May 24, 2016 HTML 46 30 15 4 5 ±3.5 pp 1,002 online 16
Abacus Data May 20, 2016 PDF 46 27 15 4 7 ±2.2 pp 2,000 online 19
Forum Research May 11, 2016 PDF 52 29 11 4 3 ±3 pp 1,517 IVR 23
Mainstreet Research April 27, 2016 HTML 49 30 14 3 4 ±1.39 pp 4,998 IVR 19
Nanos Research April 22, 2016 HTML 43.2 25.8 19.3 4.2 5.5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 telephone 17.4
Mainstreet Research April 15, 2016 HTML 48 30 14 3 5 ±1.38 pp 5,012 IVR 18
EKOS April 15, 2016 PDF 44.1 28.5 12.0 4.4 6.7 ±2.9 pp 1,176 IVR 15.6
Abacus Data April 13, 2016 PDF 49 26 13 5 5 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 23
Forum Research April 5, 2016 PDF 51 28 12 6 3 ±3 pp 1,455 IVR 23
Innovative Research March 30, 2016 PDF 46 30 12 5 6 n/a 2,456 online 16
EKOS March 29, 2016 PDF 42.1 31.7 11.7 4.8 6.4 ±2.2 pp 2,019 IVR 10.4
Abacus Data March 23, 2016 PDF 47 28 14 4 6 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 19
Abacus Data March 18, 2016 PDF 44 29 16 4 6 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 15
Forum Research March 15, 2016 PDF 46 34 12 4 3 ±2 pp 1,567 IVR 12
Forum Research February 17, 2016 PDF 49 32 10 3 5 ±3 pp 1,406 IVR 17
Léger Marketing February 4, 2016 PDF 49 27 15 3 5 ±2.1 pp 1,524 online 22
EKOS January 18, 2016 PDF 46.7 25.3 15.9 3.9 7.0 ±1.9 pp 2,598 online/telephone 21.4
Mainstreet Research January 15, 2016 HTML 44 32 16 3 5 ±1.39 pp 4,937 IVR 12
Abacus Data January 12, 2016 PDF 45 28 17 5 5 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 17
EKOS December 10, 2015 PDF 46.3 27.2 15.3 3.4 6.7 ±2.2 pp 1,956 online/telephone 19.1
Forum Research December 8, 2015 PDF 46 32 13 4 4 ±3 pp 1,369 IVR 14
Abacus Data November 25, 2015 PDF 49 24 16 5 5 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 25
Forum Research November 17, 2015 PDF 45 37 10 4 3 ±3 pp 909 IVR 8
Forum Research November 7, 2015 PDF 55 25 12 4 3 ±3 pp 1,256 IVR 30
2015 Election October 19, 2015 HTML 39.5 31.9 19.7 4.7 3.4 7.6

Notes

1 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
2 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
3 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next, with the fraction in parentheses indicating the proportion of independent data compared to the previous published poll in the series.
LV Identifies polling firms that explicitly apply a "likely voter" turnout adjustment to their top-line results.

Leadership polls

Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister:

With Ambrose

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Justin Trudeau Rona Ambrose Thomas Mulcair Rhéal Fortin Elizabeth May Margin of Error[1] Lead
Nanos Research November 25, 2016 PDF 54.2 15.7 8.7 0.7 5.5 ±3.1 pp 38.5
Nanos Research November 18, 2016 PDF 52.2 17.1 8.3 0.5 5.3 ±3.1 pp 35.1
Nanos Research November 11, 2016 PDF 50.3 16.7 8.7 0.7 5.5 ±3.1 pp 33.6
Nanos Research November 4, 2016 PDF 49.5 16.2 8.3 0.5 5.6 ±3.1 pp 33.3
Nanos Research October 28, 2016 PDF 49.6 16.0 8.2 0.5 5.7 ±3.1 pp 33.6
Nanos Research October 21, 2016 PDF 50.4 14.6 8.4 0.6 6.1 ±3.1 pp 35.8
Nanos Research October 14, 2016 PDF 52.2 14.7 8.6 0.7 5.4 ±3.1 pp 37.6
Nanos Research October 7, 2016 PDF 55.9 14.5 7.7 0.6 4.5 ±3.1 pp 41.4
Nanos Research September 30, 2016 PDF 56.0 14.1 7.4 0.6 4.4 ±3.1 pp 41.9
Nanos Research September 23, 2016 PDF 55.9 15.0 7.9 1.1 3.8 ±3.1 pp 40.9
Forum Research September 21, 2016 PDF 44 13 8 2 7 ±3 pp 31
Nanos Research September 16, 2016 PDF 53.9 15.6 8.3 1.3 3.7 ±3.1 pp 38.3
Nanos Research September 9, 2016 PDF 53.7 16.7 8.0 1.5 3.8 ±3.1 pp 37.0
Forum Research September 7, 2016 PDF 46 13 8 1 7 ±3 pp 33
Nanos Research September 2, 2016 PDF 54.1 16.5 7.9 1.8 3.6 ±3.1 pp 37.6
Nanos Research August 26, 2016 PDF 54.4 16.7 9.3 1.5 3.6 ±3.1 pp 37.7
Nanos Research August 19, 2016 PDF 56.3 16.3 9.0 1.2 3.3 ±3.1 pp 40.0
Nanos Research August 12, 2016 PDF 55.6 14.5 9.2 1.3 4.3 ±3.1 pp 41.1
Forum Research August 6, 2016 PDF 50 12 8 1 7 ±3.0 pp 38
Nanos Research August 5, 2016 PDF 55.4 15.1 9.2 1.0 4.6 ±3.1 pp 40.3
Nanos Research July 29, 2016 PDF 54.1 14.9 9.2 0.6 4.9 ±3.1 pp 39.2
Nanos Research July 22, 2016 PDF 52.3 15.9 9.2 0.5 4.9 ±3.1 pp 36.4
Nanos Research July 15, 2016 PDF 52.7 17.0 9.0 0.2 4.4 ±3.1 pp 35.7
Nanos Research July 8, 2016 PDF 52.3 16.7 9.8 0.7 4.1 ±3.1 pp 35.6
Forum Research July 5, 2016 PDF 49 13 9 1 7 ±2 pp 36
Nanos Research June 30, 2016 PDF 52.5 17.6 8.5 1.3 4.9 ±3.1 pp 34.9
Nanos Research June 24, 2016 PDF 53.4 15.9 8.8 1.5 5.2 ±3.1 pp 37.5
Nanos Research June 17, 2016 PDF 53.6 15.1 8.3 1.4 5.0 ±3.1 pp 38.5
Nanos Research June 10, 2016 PDF 52.6 15.8 8.0 1.3 5.0 ±3.1 pp 36.8
Forum Research June 7, 2016 PDF 45 11 9 2 6 ±2 pp 34
Nanos Research June 3, 2016 PDF 53.5 14.5 8.6 1.0 4.3 ±3.1 pp 39
Nanos Research May 27, 2016 PDF 53.7 15.5 8.2 1.0 3.8 ±3.1 pp 38.2
Nanos Research May 20, 2016 PDF 53.8 15.6 9.0 1.2 3.6 ±3.1 pp 38.2
Nanos Research May 13, 2016 PDF 53.0 15.8 10.1 1.3 3.4 ±3.1 pp 37.2
Forum Research May 11, 2016 PDF 47 13 10 2 6 ±3 pp 34
Nanos Research May 6, 2016 PDF 51.9 15.3 10.3 1.2 5.3 ±3.1 pp 36.6
Nanos Research April 29, 2016 PDF 51.6 15.2 10.7 0.8 5.8 ±3.1 pp 36.4
Nanos Research April 22, 2016 PDF 50.4 16.7 10.6 0.7 5.8 ±3.1 pp 33.7
Nanos Research April 15, 2016 PDF 51.1 16.6 9.7 0.5 6.0 ±3.1 pp 34.5
Nanos Research April 8, 2016 PDF 52.3 16.9 10.6 0.5 4.2 ±3.1 pp 35.4
Forum Research April 5, 2016 PDF 47 11 10 1 7 ±3 pp 36
Nanos Research April 1, 2016 PDF 51.3 17.5 11.6 0.8 3.3 ±3.1 pp 33.8
Innovative Research March 30, 2016 PDF 60.0 21.0 12.0 1.0 6.0 n/a 39.0
Nanos Research March 24, 2016 PDF 51.4 17.0 11.6 1.1 3.9 ±3.1 pp 34.4
Nanos Research March 18, 2016 PDF 52.8 14.9 12.7 0.6 4.4 ±3.1 pp 37.9
Forum Research March 15, 2016 PDF 43 13 10 1 5 ±2 pp 30
Nanos Research March 11, 2016 PDF 52.7 14.6 12.8 0.7 4.7 ±3.1 pp 38.1
Nanos Research March 4, 2016 PDF 53.7 14.2 11.3 0.9 5.3 ±3.1 pp 39.5
Nanos Research February 26, 2016 PDF 53.5 13.9 10.9 0.9 5.0 ±3.1 pp 39.6
Nanos Research February 19, 2016 PDF 51.4 14.9 11.4 1.0 4.8 ±3.1 pp 36.5
Forum Research February 17, 2016 PDF 47 12 8 1 7 ±3 pp 35
Nanos Research February 12, 2016 PDF 51.4 15.1 10.7 1.0 4.4 ±3.1 pp 36.3
Léger Marketing February 9, 2016 PDF 40 9 10 4 ±2.1 pp 30
Nanos Research February 5, 2016 PDF 51.0 14.8 12.2 0.9 4.1 ±3.1 pp 36.2
Nanos Research January 29, 2016 PDF 50.0 14.9 13.0 0.7 4.4 ±3.1 pp 35.1
Nanos Research January 22, 2016 PDF 52.2 14.6 11.5 0.9 3.5 ±3.1 pp 37.6
Nanos Research January 15, 2016 PDF 53.5 13.7 10.6 1.0 4.5 ±3.1 pp 39.8
Nanos Research January 8, 2016 PDF 53.2 13.2 10.3 1.1 4.2 ±3.1 pp 40.0
Nanos Research January 2, 2016 PDF 52.6 12.1 11.6 1.2 4.8 ±3.1 pp 40.5
Nanos Research December 25, 2015 PDF 53.1 11.3 12.7 1.2 5.1 ±3.1 pp 40.4
Nanos Research December 18, 2015 PDF 50.2 12.9 13.0 1.3 5.1 ±3.1 pp 37.2
Nanos Research December 11, 2015 PDF 51.5 13.7 12.8 1.2 5.0 ±3.1 pp 37.8
Nanos Research December 4, 2015 PDF 53.7 13.7 12.0 1.4 4.2 ±3.1 pp 40.0

With Ambrose and Harper

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Justin Trudeau Stephen Harper/
Rona Ambrose		 Thomas Mulcair Rhéal Fortin Elizabeth May Margin of Error[1] Lead
Nanos Research November 27, 2015 PDF 50.9 16.3 12.3 1.6 4.8 ±3.1 pp 34.6
Nanos Research November 20, 2015 PDF 53.3 17.2 11.6 1.2 4.6 ±3.1 pp 36.1
Nanos Research November 13, 2015 PDF 50.9 18.4 13.0 1.3 5.0 ±3.1 pp 32.5

References

    See also

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