United States presidential election, 2020
 | |||||
| |||||
|
| |||||
|
| |||||
| The electoral map for the 2020 election, based on populations from the 2010 census. The 2020 Election will be the last election to use the data from the 2010 Census; subsequent elections will use information from the as yet to be collected 2020 United States Census. | |||||
| |||||
The United States presidential election of 2020, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are likely to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.
Barring any major change in circumstances, Republican Donald Trump, who was elected in 2016, will be eligible to seek re-election. The winner of the 2020 presidential election will be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.
Background
Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the President and Vice President.[1]
Demographic trends
The 2020 U.S. presidential election will mark the first time all members of the millennial generation (at its greatest extent) will be eligible to vote.[2] The age group of what will then be persons in the 18 to 45-year-old bracket will represent 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020.[3]
Simultaneous elections
The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Several states will also hold state gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win election.[4] Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.[5]
Republican Party
Declared candidates
| Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State | Announced | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jack Fellure |
October 3, 1931 (age 85) Midkiff, West Virginia |
Retired engineer |  West Virginia |
November 9, 2016 | [6] |
Speculative candidates
Should Donald Trump face primary opposition or not seek a second term, the following have been mentioned as potential candidates:
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas since 2013; candidate for President in 2016[7][8]
- Nikki Haley, Governor of South Carolina since 2011[9][10]
- Dwayne Johnson, actor from Florida[11][12]
- John Kasich, Governor of Ohio since 2011; U.S. Representative 1983–2001; candidate for President in 2016 and 2000[7][13]
- Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina since 2013; U.S. Representative 2011–2013[14][15]
Declined candidates
- Ben Carson, Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery, Johns Hopkins Hospital 1984–2013; candidate for President in 2016[16]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida since 2011; candidate for President in 2016[17]
Potential convention sites
Democratic Party
Speculative candidates
- Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey since 2013; Mayor of Newark 2006–2013[7][20][21][22]
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. Senator from Ohio since 2007; U.S. Representative from Ohio 1993–2007; Secretary of State of Ohio 1983–1991[7][20]
- Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana since 2013[23][24]
- Julian Castro, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development 2014–2017; Mayor of San Antonio 2009–2014[7][25]
- Bill de Blasio, Mayor of New York City since 2014[7][26]
- Tammy Duckworth, U.S. Senator from Illinois since 2017; U.S. Representative 2013–2017[27][28]
- John Bel Edwards, Governor of Louisiana since 2016; Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives 2012–2015[7][29]
- Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. Representative from Hawaii since 2013[7]
- Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Senator from New York since 2009; U.S. Representative 2007–2009[20][22][27]
- Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California since 2017; Attorney General of California 2011–2017[7][22][30]
- John Hickenlooper, Governor of Colorado since 2011; Mayor of Denver 2003-2011[22][28]
- Jason Kander, Secretary of State of Missouri 2013–2017[31][32]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota since 2007[7][22][30]
- Joe Manchin, U.S. Senator from West Virginia since 2010; Governor of West Virginia 2005-2010; Secretary of State of West Virginia 2001-2005[33]
- Chris Murphy, U.S. Senator from Connecticut since 2013[28][34]
- Martin O'Malley, Governor of Maryland 2007–2015; Mayor of Baltimore 1999–2007; candidate for President in 2016[20][28]
- Deval Patrick, Governor of Massachusetts 2007–2015, Senior Advisor of the Chicago Police Accountability Task Force since 2015[35]
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont since 2007; U.S. Representative 1991–2007; Mayor of Burlington 1981–1989; candidate for President in 2016[25][36]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts since 2013[20][28]
.jpg)
_(cropped).jpg)
Declined candidates
- Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York since 2011; Secretary of Housing and Urban Development 1997–2001[37]
- Al Franken, U.S. Senator from Minnesota since 2009[38]
- Tim Kaine, U.S. Senator from Virginia since 2013; Governor 2006–2010; Mayor of Richmond 1998–2001; Democratic nominee for Vice President in 2016[39]
- Joe Kennedy III, U.S. Representative from Massachusetts since 2013[40]
- Michelle Obama, First Lady of the United States 2009–2017[41][42]
- Mark Warner, U.S. Senator from Virginia since 2009; Governor of Virginia 2002-2006[43]
Potential convention sites
National polling
| Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of Error | Cory Booker | Andrew Cuomo | Tim Kaine | Elizabeth Warren | Others | Don't Know |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politico/Morning Consult[47] | 1,989 | October 5–6, 2016 | ± 2% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 16% | 8% | 54% |
Third-party, independent, and unaffiliated candidates
Libertarian Party
Declared candidates
| Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State | Announced | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Adam Kokesh |
February 1, 1982 (age 34) San Francisco, California |
Talk show host |  Arizona |
July 22, 2013 | [48][49][50] |
Declined candidates
- Gary Johnson, Governor of New Mexico 1995–2003, Libertarian nominee in 2012 and 2016[51]
Independent or unaffiliated
Declared candidates
| Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State | Announced | Ref | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dan Rattiner | 1939 (age 77) New York City, New York | Journalist |  New York | [52] | ||
 Kanye West | June 8, 1977 (age 39) Atlanta, Georgia | Rapper and entrepreneur |  California | [53][54][55] |
Declined candidates
- Mark Cuban, businessman from Texas[56]
See also
References
- ↑ "US Election guide: how does the election work?". The Daily Telegraph. November 6, 2012. Retrieved October 29, 2015.
- ↑ "Millennials Will Rule Voting Bloc by 2020". publicslate.org. Public Slate. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
- ↑ Weeks, Linton (January 25, 2013). "Forget 2016. The Pivotal Year In Politics May Be 2020". National Public Radio. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
- ↑ Campbell, James E. (March 1986). "Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections". The American Political Science Review. 80 (1): 45. JSTOR 1957083.
- ↑ Sarlin, Benjy (August 26, 2014). "Forget 2016: Democrats already have a plan for 2020". MSNBC. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
- ↑ http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/838/201611070300117838/201611070300117838.pdf
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 "20 candidates who could run in 2020 — Democrats and Republicans". Boston Globe. Retrieved November 17, 2016.
- ↑ http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-republicans-cruz-rubio-231717
- ↑ "Clinton won't be America's first female president. So who will?". The McClatchy Company. Retrieved November 23, 2016.
- ↑ "10 reasons Trump's victory is not the apocalypse - Rob Eshman". Retrieved November 23, 2016.
- ↑ "The Rock for President in 2020? "I Wouldn't Rule It Out"". Vanity Fair. Retrieved November 27, 2016.
- ↑ "The Rock says he might run for president in 2020: 'I wouldn't rule it out'". Business Insider. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
- ↑ "Kasich's hopes to be president likely dead". Toledo Blade. November 10, 2016. Retrieved November 17, 2016.
- ↑ "The 2020 presidential campaign is about to kick off. Is SC Sen. Tim Scott in the mix?". The McClatchy Company.
- ↑ "The 2020 presidential campaign is about to kick off. Is SC Sen. Tim Scott in the mix?". kentucky.com.
- ↑ "Ben Carson: Not 'running for public office ever again".
- ↑ Hopkins, Jason. "Rubio Closes Door to 2020 Presidential Run".
- ↑ Morrison, Jane Ann (December 7, 2013). "City may not be ready for GOP convention in 2016, but in 2020 ...". Las Vegas Review-Journal. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
- ↑ Myers, Laura (May 22, 2014). "Las Vegas withdraws GOP convention bid; arena, timing difficulties cited". Las Vegas Review-Journal. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
- 1 2 3 4 5 Segal, Cheryl (November 12, 2016). "Ten potential Democratic candidates for 2020". The Hill. Retrieved November 17, 2016.
- ↑ Craig, Daniel (November 25, 2016). "Is Cory Booker a favorite to challenge Trump in 2020?". Philly Voice. Retrieved November 27, 2016.
- 1 2 3 4 5 Chris Cillizza (November 27, 2016). "The race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination is now open". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 28, 2016.
- ↑ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/28/elizabeth-warren-and-9-other-democrats-i-left-off-my-2020-presidential-list/?utm_term=.21d101ec2281
- ↑ http://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/opinion/2016/12/02/edge-bullock-prez/94830948/
- 1 2 "Which Democrats Could Run For President in 2020? Here Are 10 Names to Know". Billboard. Retrieved November 17, 2016.
- ↑ Board, Post Editorial (November 13, 2016). "Clinton's loss means a de Blasio-Cuomo 2020 race". The New York Post. Retrieved November 17, 2016.
- 1 2 Hecht, Jon. "7 Democrats Who Could Run For President In 2020 And Take The White House From Donald Trump". Bustle. Retrieved November 17, 2016.
- 1 2 3 4 5 "11 Democrats who could defeat President Trump in 2020". Mother Jones. Retrieved November 17, 2016.
- ↑ Mikells, Bruce (November 22, 2016). "Louisiana Governor To Run For President?". 97.3 The Dawg. Retrieved November 27, 2016.
- 1 2 "Who Will Run For President In 2020? 13 Names Pop As Possible Democratic Candidates". IB Times. November 13, 2016. Retrieved November 17, 2016.
- ↑ http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article118072778.html
- ↑ http://forward.com/news/national/355832/jason-kander-iowa-bound-does-the-jewish-pol-have-presidential-ambitions/
- ↑ "20 candidates who could run in 2020 — Democrats and Republicans - The Boston Globe". BostonGlobe.com. Retrieved 2016-12-02.
- ↑ Cilliza, Chris (November 28, 2016). "Why I left Elizabeth Warren off my 2020 presidential list (and why I was wrong)". The Washington Post. Retrieved December 3, 2016.
- ↑ "Who will lead the Democratic Party after Hillary Clinton?". PennLive.com. November 10, 2016. Retrieved November 27, 2016.
- ↑ Staff, AOL. "Who can Democrats run for president in 2020?". aol.com. Retrieved November 17, 2016.
- ↑ Press, Associated. "Amid 2020 chatter, Cuomo stays firm on seeking third term". Crain Communications. Retrieved November 18, 2016.
- ↑ http://www.thewrap.com/al-franken-president-2020/
- ↑ Hagen, Lisa (November 17, 2016). "Kaine rules out run for president in 2020". The Hill. Retrieved November 17, 2016.
- ↑ Kalunian, Kim (November 19, 2016). "Congressman Kennedy: Trump should work to unify America". Retrieved November 23, 2016.
- ↑ "Cue the media speculation about a Michelle Obama presidential run".
- ↑ Watkins, Eli. "Michelle Obama: 'I will not run for president'". CNN. Retrieved November 9, 2016.
- ↑ Epstein, Reid J. "Mark Warner Rules Out 2020 White House Run; 'Window Is Probably Shut'". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 2016-12-01.
- ↑ Barken, Ross (February 15, 2015). "Bill de Blasio Is Now Thinking About Bringing 2020 Democratic Convention to NYC". New York Observer. Retrieved October 29, 2015.
- 1 2 Knox, Tom (February 20, 2015). "Columbus may have to contend with Indianapolis for 2020 conventions". Columbus Business Journal. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
- ↑ Pistor, Nicholas J.C. (February 26, 2014). "St. Louis declines invitation to bid for 2016 Democratic National Convention". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved July 28, 2016.
- ↑ https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Politico_MCPostVPToplines-1.pdf
- ↑ "Adam Kokesh to Run for President in 2020". Independent Political Report. July 22, 2013. Retrieved October 29, 2015.
- ↑ Woodruff, Betsy (August 5, 2013). "Adam Kokesh's 2020 Presidential Campaign". National Review. Retrieved October 29, 2015.
- ↑ "An interview with Adam Kokesh, Possible 2020 Libertarian Party Candidate for President". June 16, 2016.
- ↑ "Gary Johnson says he won't run for president again". November 9, 2016.
- ↑ Rattiner, Dan (April 24, 2015). "Dan Rattiner Running for President in 2020". Dan's Papers. Retrieved January 10, 2016.
- ↑ Zaru, Dee (September 5, 2015). "Kanye West declares 2020 presidential bid at VMAs". CNN. Retrieved October 29, 2015.
- ↑ Thompson, Arienne (September 25, 2015). "Guys, Kanye is serious about running for president in 2020". USA Today. Retrieved October 29, 2015.
- ↑ "Kanye West Talks Running For President In 2020". November 13, 2016.
- ↑ "Mark Cuban: 'There is no possible way' I'm running for president; Mavs owner says he wouldn't take Cabinet job, either – SportsDay". Dallas News. September 27, 2016. Retrieved November 17, 2016.