United States Senate election in South Carolina, 2014

United States Senate election in South Carolina, 2014
South Carolina
November 4, 2014
 
Nominee Lindsey Graham Brad Hutto
Party Republican Democratic
Alliance Working Families
Popular vote 672,942 480,933
Percentage 55.3% 38.8%

County results
U.S. Senator before election

Lindsey Graham
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Lindsey Graham
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in South Carolina took place on November 4, 2014, concurrently with a special election for South Carolina's other Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham won re-election. He faced Democratic State Senator Brad Hutto and Independent Thomas Ravenel in the general election. He defeated both of them by a 10-point margin.

Republican primary

Of all the Republican Senators up for re-election in the 2014 cycle, Graham was considered one of the most vulnerable to a primary challenge, largely due to his low approval ratings and reputation for working with and compromising with Democrats.[1][2] He expected a primary challenge from conservative activists, including the Tea Party movement,[3] and Chris Chocola, President of the Club for Growth, indicated that his organization would support a primary challenge if an acceptable standard-bearer emerged.[4]

However, a serious challenger to Graham failed to emerge and he was widely viewed as likely to win,[1] which has been ascribed to his "deft maneuvering" and "aggressive" response to the challenge. He befriended potential opponents from the state's congressional delegation and helped them with fundraising and securing their preferred committee assignments; he assembled a "daunting multimillion-dollar political operation" dubbed the "Graham machine" that built six regional offices across the state and enlisted the support of thousands of paid staffers and volunteers, including over 5,000 precinct captains; he assembled a "staggering" campaign warchest and "blanketed" the state with positive ads; he focused on constituent services and local issues; and he refused to "pander" to the Tea Party supporters, instead confronting them head-on, arguing that the Republican party needs to be more inclusive.[5][6][7]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Lindsey
Graham		 Det
Bowers		 Lee
Bright		 Richard
Cash		 Bill
Connor		 Benjamin
Dunn		 Nancy
Mace		 Undecided
Clemson University May 22–29, 2014 400 ± 6% 49% 1% 9% 3% 1% 0% 2% 35%
TargetPoint March 16–22, 2014 600 ± 2.8% 56% 4% 6% 7% 1% 1% 5% 20%
Gravis Marketing March 6–7, 2014 735 ± 4% 60% — 10% 4% 2% — 7% 17%
Winthrop University February 16–23, 2014 901 ± 3.2% 45% — 8.5% 2.9% 3.5% — 3.7% 36.5%
Wenzel Strategies* February 3–4, 2014 623 ± 3.9% 45.9% — 17.4% 4.9% 4.2% — 5.1% 22.5%
North Star^ January 20–26, 2014 600 ± 4% 53% — 11% 3% 3% — 8% 23%
Gravis Marketing November 30–December 2, 2013 601 ± 4% 54% — 10% 5% 2% — 6% 23%
Harper Polling October 27–28, 2013 379 ± 5.03% 51% — 15% 4% 4% — 4% 22%
Landmark/Rosetta Stone August 25, 2013 500 ± 4.5% 42.4% — 12.6% 6.7% — — 10% 28.3%

Results

Republican primary results[47]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Lindsey Graham 178,833 56.42
Republican Lee Bright 48,904 15.53
Republican Richard Cash 26,325 8.3
Republican Det Bowers 23,172 7.31
Republican Nancy Mace 19,634 6.19
Republican Bill Connor 16,912 5.34
Republican Benjamin Dunn 3,209 1.01
Total votes 316,989 100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Brad
Hutto		 Jay
Stamper		 Undecided
Clemson University May 26–June 2, 2014 400 ± 6% 8% 3% 89%

Results

Democratic primary results[47]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Brad Hutto 87,552 76.65
Democratic Jay Stamper 26,678 23.35
Total votes 114,230 100

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Independent

In March 2014, with only controversial businessman and prankster Jay Stamper running for the Democrats, Dick Harpootlian, former Chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party, had stated that business leaders were working on an effort to recruit a potential Independent candidate to run in case Graham was defeated in the primary.[49] Such a "contingency" plan was rendered moot by the entry of Democratic State Senator Brad Hutto into the race.[49]

Former Republican State Treasurer Thomas Ravenel had confirmed that was considering running for the Senate as an Independent and was likely to do so if Lindsey Graham won the Republican primary.[57] In April 2014, with Graham polling strongly in the primary, Ravenel announced he would run.[58] He officially announced his candidacy on July 4.[59]

Declared

General election

Debates

Graham has refused to debate his opponents. A spokesman has said that his campaign is "in discussions with other groups, as well as looking at the schedule." Hutto has said that Graham is "terrified at the thought of defending his own record in a public debate" and Ravenel said Graham's decision was "highly arrogant and disrespectful."[60]

Fundraising

The following are Federal Election Commission disclosures for the pre-primary reporting period.

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Graham, LindseyLindsey Graham (R) $7,014,854 $9,063,768 $0 $276,312
Hutto, BradBrad Hutto (D) $399,770 $342,366 $132,401 $75,000

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Lindsey
Graham (R)		 Brad
Hutto (D)		 Thomas
Ravenel (I)		 Other Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,566 ± 4% 43% 28% 8% 2% 19%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 2,663 ± 2% 44% 27% 8% 1% 20%
Winthrop University September 21–28, 2014 1,082 ± 3% 46.3% 28% 8% 3.5%[61] 14.3%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 833 ± 5% 42% 29% 8% 2% 19%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 1,183 ± 5.4% 48% 36% — 7% 10%
Voter Survey Service July 16–20, 2014 650 ± 4% 45% 33% 10% 4%[62] 8%
46% 33% — 9%[62] 12%
Voter Survey Service July 7–13, 2014 1,000 ± 4% 46% 33% — 9% 12%
Rasmussen Reports July 9–10, 2014 750 ± 4% 49% 30% — 10% 11%

Results

United States Senate Election in South Carolina, 2014[63]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Lindsey Graham 672,941 54.27% -3.25%
Democratic Brad Hutto 456,726 36.83% -5.42%
Working Families Brad Hutto 24,207 1.95% +1.95%
Total Hutto 480,933 38.78%
Independent Thomas Ravenel 47,588 3.84% +3.84%
Libertarian Victor Kocher 33,839 2.73% +2.73%
Write-ins 4,774 0.38% +0.15%
Majority 192,008 15.49% +0.22%
Turnout 1,240,075 43.04% -30.24%
Republican hold Swing

See also

References

  1. 1 2 Tom Kludt (April 8, 2014). "Lindsey Graham Faces Big - But Weak - Field of Challengers". NBC News. Retrieved April 24, 2014.
  2. ↑ Tom Kludt (2013-10-30). "Poll: Lindsey Graham's Approval Rating Tumbles In S.C". Talkingpointsmemo.com. Retrieved 2014-02-14.
  3. ↑ Rosen, James. "WASHINGTON: Graham: 'I expect' a primary challenge | News". The State. Retrieved 2014-02-14.
  4. ↑ Sullivan, Sean (September 20, 2012). "Lindsey Graham, 2014 target?". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 24, 2014.
  5. ↑ Manu Raju (April 23, 2014). "How Lindsey Graham outmaneuvered the tea party". Politico. Retrieved April 24, 2014.
  6. ↑ Molly Ball (June 10, 2014). "How Lindsey Graham Stomped the Tea Party". The Atlantic. Retrieved October 9, 2014.
  7. ↑ Jonathan Martin (June 10, 2014). "In South Carolina, Graham Prevails Without a Runoff". The New York Times. Retrieved July 17, 2014.
  8. ↑ Hamby, Peter (February 4, 2014). "Pastor joins crowded GOP race to unseat Lindsey Graham". CNN. Retrieved February 4, 2014.
  9. 1 2 Shain, Andrew (August 1, 2013). "First Citadel female grad, Sen. Bright will take on Graham". The State. Retrieved August 2, 2013.
  10. ↑ "Republican Cash to run against Graham in 2014". The Greenville News. Associated Press. April 16, 2013. Retrieved April 16, 2013.
  11. ↑ Self, Jamie (November 8, 2013). "SC Senate race: Bill Connor becomes Lindsey Graham's 4th GOP opponent". The State. Retrieved November 10, 2013.
  12. ↑ Self, Jamie (March 13, 2014). "Despite 'ambiguously gay' barb, four Graham foes unite". The State. Retrieved March 18, 2014.
  13. ↑ Acosta, Adrian (January 24, 2014). "Spartanburg police officer resigns to join U.S. Senate race". Fox Carolina. Retrieved February 26, 2014.
  14. ↑ Staff, Twitchy (March 27, 2013). "Bruce Carroll pulls a Judd, will not challenge Lindsey Graham". Twitchy. Retrieved March 28, 2013.
  15. ↑ Smith, Gina (February 1, 2013). "EXCLUSIVE: Sen. Tom Davis will not run for U.S. Senate, governor's office". The Island Packet. Retrieved February 1, 2013.
  16. ↑ Arkin, James (July 15, 2013). "Trey Gowdy: No 'interest' in Graham race". Politico. Retrieved July 16, 2013.
  17. ↑ Cameron Joseph (December 6, 2012). "Mark Sanford not ruling out run for DeMint's seat". Roll Call. Retrieved February 10, 2014.
  18. ↑ Mollie Reilly (December 6, 2012). "Mark Sanford Mulls Senate Run In South Carolina: Report". The Huffington Post. Retrieved February 10, 2014.
  19. ↑ "Rep. Mulvaney won't run against Graham or his House colleagues for Senate". TheHill. 2012-12-12. Retrieved 2014-02-14.
  20. 1 2 "Other views: Campaign cash packs new punch at the polls". Aiken Standard. July 14, 2013. Retrieved July 16, 2013.
  21. 1 2 "Thomas Ravenel Mulling US Senate Bid". FITSNews. July 14, 2013. Retrieved July 10, 2013.
  22. ↑ "Lindsey Graham may be tough to beat in 2014 - Scott Wong and David Catanese". Politico.Com. Retrieved 2014-02-14.
  23. ↑ Tom Kludt (2013-11-06). "Chris Christie To Campaign For Lindsey Graham". Talkingpointsmemo.com. Retrieved 2014-02-14.
  24. ↑ Burgess Everett and Manu Raju (April 15, 2014). "GOP Senate may run purple". Politico. Retrieved May 4, 2014.
  25. ↑ "Editorial: SC, US needs Lindsey Graham in the Senate". The State. May 24, 2014. Retrieved June 5, 2014.
  26. ↑ Bostic, Curtis (March 3, 2014). "Our Perspective on the 2014 Graham Senate Seat...". Constant Contact. Retrieved May 13, 2014.
  27. ↑ Self, Jamie (April 30, 2014). "RedState's Erick Erickson endorses Det Bowers in US Senate race". The State. Retrieved May 13, 2014.
  28. ↑ "Sumter TEAvangelicals Endorse Det Bowers for US Senate". Det Bowers for Senate. May 16, 2014. Retrieved June 5, 2014.
  29. ↑ "Greg Brannon Endorses Lee Bright for Senate". Bright for Senate. January 30, 2014.
  30. ↑ Self, Jamie (May 31, 2014). "Lee Bright endorsed for US Senate by SC representative, fellow Obamacare nullifier". The State.
  31. ↑ "Congressman Thomas Massie Endorses Lee Bright for US Senate". April 9, 2014. Retrieved April 30, 2014.
  32. ↑ "Surging Lee Bright Campaign Scores Another Endorsement". Bright for Senate. November 5, 2013. Retrieved December 15, 2013.
  33. ↑ "Bright Scores Major Endorsement from Congressman Stockman". Bright for Senate. January 30, 2014.
  34. ↑ "Fairfield GOP Chair Resigns from Team Graham: Endorses Lee Bright for Senate". Bright for Senate. October 29, 2013. Retrieved January 4, 2014.
  35. ↑ "Lewis Vaughn Endorses Lee Bright". YouTube. February 25, 2014. Retrieved March 10, 2014.
  36. ↑ "Lee Bright's Campaign Endorsed Against Illegal Alien Amnesty Supporter Lindsey Graham". Americans for Legal Immigration PAC. April 15, 2014. Retrieved May 13, 2014.
  37. ↑ "Top Challenger Bright Nabs Third Major 2nd Amendment Endorsement". Bright for Senate. March 28, 2014. Retrieved May 13, 2014.
  38. ↑ "Lee Bright Gets Pro-Gun Nod". FITS News. October 24, 2013. Retrieved January 21, 2014.
  39. ↑ "Kershaw County Patriots Endorse Lee Bright". FITS News. October 7, 2013. Retrieved October 22, 2013.
  40. 1 2 Self, Jamie (February 26, 2014). "ELECTION 2014: Bright, Mace endorsed by same gun group". The State. Retrieved March 27, 2014.
  41. ↑ Bright, Lee (February 21, 2014). "The Laurens County Tea Party voted to endorse me for U.S. Senate with over 80% of the vote". Twitter. Retrieved March 27, 2014.
  42. ↑ Cook, Joshua (October 14, 2013). "Republican Liberty Caucus endorses U.S. Senate candidate Lee Bright against Lindsey Graham". Freedom Outpost. Retrieved October 22, 2013.
  43. ↑ "Voice of the Unborn Endorses Lee Bright". YouTube. January 21, 2014.
  44. ↑ Tom Kludt (February 25, 2014). "Tea Party Leader and FoxNews analyst endorses Connor". Bill Connor for US Senate. Retrieved March 27, 2014.
  45. ↑ Boyle, Matthew (August 13, 2013). "Exclusive–National Tea Party Group To Endorse Nancy Mace Against Lindsey Graham". Breitbart. Retrieved October 22, 2013.
  46. ↑ Joseph, Cameron (November 21, 2013). "Tim Scott won't endorse Lindsey Graham". The Hill. Retrieved March 27, 2014.
  47. 1 2 "Official results 2014 Statewide Primary Election June 10, 2014". South Carolina State Election Commission. Retrieved July 22, 2014.
  48. 1 2 Shain, Andrew (March 28, 2014). "ELECTION 2014 (updated): Who's filed for statewide, State House, Congressional offices". The State. Retrieved March 28, 2014.
  49. 1 2 3 Corey Hutchins (March 4, 2014). "Independent 'contingency plan' in works if Lindsey Graham loses primary". Charleston City Paper. Retrieved March 18, 2014.
  50. ↑ Mary Troyan (2014-06-15). "Dems pin Senate hopes on Hutto". Greenville News. Retrieved 2014-06-15.
  51. ↑ Jeffrey Collins (2014-05-18). "S.C. Democratic leaders choose sides in Senate race". The Times and Democrat. Retrieved 2014-05-21.
  52. ↑ "South Carolina AFL-CIO Endorses Brad Hutto for US Senate". Brad Hutto for U.S. Senate. May 14, 2014. Retrieved May 21, 2014.
  53. ↑ "Educators recommend South Carolina's Brad Hutto for U.S. Senate". National Education Association. August 12, 2014. Retrieved August 21, 2014.
  54. ↑ "Brad Hutto for Dem nomination for U.S. Senate". The Greenville News. June 9, 2014. Retrieved June 11, 2014.
  55. ↑ "Editorial: Brad Hutto is only choice for Democratic nomination against US Sen Lindsey Graham". The State. May 26, 2014. Retrieved June 5, 2014.
  56. ↑ "Hutto seeking U.S. Senate seat". Fort Mill Times. March 29, 2014. Retrieved April 1, 2014.
  57. ↑ Schuyler Kropf (March 4, 2014). "Newly minted reality TV star Thomas Ravenel may challenge Lindsey Graham for U.S. Senate seat in fall". The Post and Courier. Retrieved March 18, 2014.
  58. 1 2 Schuyler Kropf (April 8, 2014). "Southern Charm recap: Thomas Ravenel and the U.S. Senate?". The State. Retrieved April 8, 2014.
  59. ↑ Callum, Lillia. "GREENVILLE, SC: Ravenel makes US Senate run official | Politics". The State. Retrieved 2014-07-25.
  60. ↑ "Graham not participating in debate with opponents". The State. October 3, 2014.
  61. ↑ Victor Kocher (L) 2.6%, Other 0.9%
  62. 1 2 Victor Kocher (L)
  63. ↑ http://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/53424/149231/en/summary.html#

External links

Official campaign websites
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