United States Senate election in Montana, 2012

United States Senate election in Montana, 2012
Montana
November 6, 2012
 
Nominee Jon Tester Denny Rehberg Dan Cox
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Popular vote 236,123 218,051 31,892
Percentage 48.58% 44.58% 6.56%

County results
U.S. Senator before election

Jon Tester
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Jon Tester
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester successfully ran for re-election to a second term.[1][2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Results

June 5th, 2012 Republican primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Denny Rehberg 105,632 76.2
Republican Dennis Teske 33,079 23.8
Total votes 138,711 100

General election

Candidates

Debates

Three debates are scheduled, including one with the Libertarian candidate whose ultimate influence on the race remains uncertain.[9] The first, between Rehberg and Tester, was held on October 8, 2012 at 7 p.m. at Petro Theatre at the MSU Billings University campus. The debate was televised live by Montana PBS andbroadcast on KEMC/Yellowstone Public Radio and streamed on the Gazette’s website. It was moderated by Steve Prosinski, editor of The Gazette, with questions from a panel of political reporters. Representatives from the Associated Students of Montana State University Billings, the student government, served as timekeepers.[10]

Campaign

Former president of the Montana Senate and farmer Jon Tester was elected with 49.2% of the vote in 2006, defeating incumbent Conrad Burns.

As of June 30, 2011, Jon Tester had saved $2.34 million in campaign funds. Tester has been accused by Republican Denny Rehberg's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and movie stars.[11]

On February 5, 2011, U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg announced his intention to run for the U.S. Senate.[3] Steve Daines had announced he would seek the Republican nomination on November 13, 2010,[12] but just before Rehberg's announcement he dropped out of the primary and announced he would instead seek the Republican nomination for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2012.[5]

As of early July 2010, Denny Rehberg had saved $1.5 million of an original $2 million in campaign funds. Rehberg accused Democrat Jon Tester's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and Hollywood while Rehberg's campaign relies primarily on in state donations. Tester's campaign countered that Rehberg has been funded by petroleum special interests and Wall Street.[11]

The National Republican Senatorial Committee aired an attack ad against Jon Tester that mistakenly included a digitally manipulated photo of Tester (who has only two fingers on his left hand) with full sets of fingers.[13] Another ad against Tester, from the Karl Rove group Crossroads GPS, falsely asserted that Tester had voted in favor of Environmental Protection Agency regulation of farm dust.[14] In fact, Tester had praised the EPA for not attempting such a regulation.[15] The vote cited in the anti-Tester ad concerned currency exchange rates.[16]

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.[17]

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Jon Tester (D) $11,699,935 $10,377,126 $1,334,858 $0
Denny Rehberg (R) $8,420,655 $7,249,285 $1,171,369 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[18][19]

Top contributors

[20][21]

Jon Tester Contribution Denny Rehberg Contribution
League of Conservation Voters $82,332 Alliance Resource Partners $36,500
Visa Inc. $47,400 Exxon Mobil $29,500
JPMorgan Chase & Co $47,000 Las Vegas Sands $25,000
Thornton & Naumes $46,600 Mewbourne Oil Co $25,000
WPP Group $38,350 Murray Energy $24,068
Blackstone Group $34,000 Devon Energy $20,400
Girardi & Keese $30,000 Arch Coal $19,000
Pederson Group $29,500 Yellowstone Bank $17,500
Comcast Corp $28,500 Marathon Oil $13,750
First Interstate BancSystem $28,400 Koch Industries $13,500

Top industries

[22]

Jon Tester Contribution Denny Rehberg Contribution
Lawyers/Law firms $1,084,445 Oil & Gas $327,969
Retired $534,716 Financial Institutions $277,474
Lobbyists $506,931 Retired $268,693
Financial Institutions $438,763 Leadership PACs $267,000
Leadership PACs $345,750 Mining $169,318
Commercial Banks $299,818 Lobbyists $150,050
Real Estate $280,945 Real Estate $121,080
Insurance $211,009 Misc Finance $94,655
Misc Finance $188,750 Lawyers/Law Firms $89,338
Health Professionals $181,483 Republican/Conservative $76,855

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Jon
Tester (D)		 Denny
Rehberg (R)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 2–3, 2012 836 3.4% 48% 46% 4% 2%
Mason-Dixon/Gazette State Bureau October 29–31, 2012 625 4.0% 45% 49% 1% 5%
Rasmussen Reports October 29, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 49% 48% 2% 2%
Pharos Research October 26–28, 2012 799 ± 3.5% 48% 47% — 5%
Pharos Research October 19–21, 2012 828 ± 3.4% 48% 46% — 5%
Public Policy Polling/LCV October 15–16, 2012 806 ± 3.5% 46% 44% 7% 3%
Rasmussen Reports October 14, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 48% 48% 3% 2%
Public Policy Polling October 8–10, 2012 737 ± 3.6% 45% 43% 8% 4%
MSU October 9, 2012 477 ± 4.6% 40% 43% 5% 12%
Mason-Dixon September 17–19, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 45% 48% 1% 6%
Public Policy Polling September 10–11, 2012 656 ± 3.8% 45% 43% 8% 3%
Rasmussen Reports August 20, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 43% 47% 5% 5%
Rasmussen Reports June 18, 2012 450 ± 5.0% 47% 49% 2% 2%
Rasmussen Reports May 2, 2012 450 ± 5.0% 43% 53% 2% 2%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 934 ± 3.2% 48% 43% — 9%
Rasmussen Reports April 2, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 44% 47% 6% 3%
Rasmussen Reports February 22, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 44% 47% 4% 5%
Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011 1,625 ± 2.4% 45% 47% — 8%
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 45% 47% — 8%
Mason-Dixon March 14–16, 2011 625 ± 4.0% 46% 45% — 9%
Public Policy Polling November 10–13, 2010 1,176 ± 2.9% 46% 48% — 6%

Results

United States Senate election in Montana, 2012
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Jon Tester (Incumbent) 236,123 48.58% -0.58%
Republican Denny Rehberg 218,051 44.86% -3.43%
Libertarian Dan Cox 31,892 6.56% +4.01%
Write-ins
Margin of victory 18,072 3.72% +2.84%
Turnout 486,066
Democratic hold Swing

*Note: The ±% column reflects the change in the percent of the votes won by each party from the 2006 Senate election. Neither the vote shares nor turnout figure account for write-ins.

By county

County Tester Votes Rehberg Votes Cox Votes Total
Beaverhead 31.84% 1,532 59.77% 2,876 8.4% 404 4,812
Big Horn 67.39% 3,141 28.08% 1,309 4.53% 211 4,661
Blaine 63.88% 1,834 31.24% 897 4.88% 140 2,871
Broadwater 33.01% 995 57.47% 1,732 9.52% 287 3,014
Carbon 45.9% 2,691 47.55% 2,788 6.55% 384 5,863
Carter 15.74% 125 77.58% 616 6.68% 53 794
Cascade 52.47% 18,246 41.96% 14,589 5.57% 1,936 34,771
Chouteau 48.19% 1,374 46.33% 1,321 5.47% 156 2,851
Custer 43.21% 2,283 49.31% 2,661 8.38% 452 5,396
Daniels 32.6% 327 60.52% 607 6.88% 69 1,003
Dawson 35.46% 1,571 56.52% 2,504 8.01% 355 4,430
Deer Lodge 69.55% 3,122 23.37% 1,049 7.08% 318 4,489
Fallon 29.78% 422 59.28% 840 10.94% 155 1,407
Fergus 33.94% 2,063 58.12% 3,533 7.95% 483 6,709
Flathead 37.17% 16,223 55.38% 24,171 7.45% 3,252 43,646
Gallatin 51.63% 24,781 42.47% 20,386 5.9% 2,834 48,001
Garfield 14.31% 101 79.04% 558 6.66% 47 708
Glacier 69.6% 3,118 24.84% 1,113 5.56% 249 4,480
Golden Valley 36.25% 174 57.5% 275 6.25% 30 480
Granite 38.53% 3,091 52.49% 895 8.97% 153 1,705
Hill 58.93% 4,060 34.27% 2,361 6.81% 469 6,890
Jefferson 40.92% 2,685 51.65% 3,389 7.42% 487 6,561
Judith Basin 35.94% 441 57.13% 701 6.93% 85 1,227
Lake 49.25% 6,561 42.92% 5,717 7.83% 1,043 13,321
Lewis and Clark 54.34% 18,189 40.17% 13,446 5.49% 1,839 33,474
Liberty 40.48% 1,341 53.12% 1,760 6.09% 61 1,002
Lincoln 34.62% 3,091 56.90% 5,080 8.48% 757 8,928
Madison 33.2% 1,516 58.91% 2,690 7.88% 360 4,566
McCone 32.9% 332 61.05% 616 6.05% 61 1,009
Meagher 34.93% 342 55.57% 544 9.5% 93 979
Mineral 42.66% 866 47.44% 963 9.9% 201 2,030
Missoula 63.49% 36,488 31.64% 18,184 4.87% 2,799 57,471
Musselshell 28.58% 684 61.14% 1,463 10.28% 246 2,393
Park 48.22% 4,260 43.94% 3,882 7.84% 693 8,835
Petroleum 24.41% 73 67.56% 202 8.03% 24 299
Phillips 27.2% 607 49.69% 1,355 7.17% 160 2,717
Powder River 23.32% 239 70.15% 719 6.54% 67 1,025
Powell 41.75% 1,167 51.2% 1,431 7.05% 197 2,795
Prairie 33.33% 236 59.32% 420 7.34% 52 708
Ravalli 38.65% 8,602 53.87% 11,990 7.48% 1,666 22,258
Richland 30.18% 1,406 62.95% 2,933 6.87% 320 4,659
Roosevelt 61.41% 2,269 33.42% 1,235 5.17% 191 3,695
Rosebud 48.0% 1,704 44.45% 1,578 7.55% 268 3,550
Sanders 34.31% 2,044 54.04% 3,219 11.65% 694 5,957
Sheridan 42.23% 812 51.74% 995 6.03% 116 1,923
Silver Bow 69.29% 11,673 24.62% 4,148 6.09% 1,026 16,847
Stillwater 36.66% 1,732 56.84% 2,684 6.52% 308 4,724
Sweet Grass 31.19% 661 62.67% 1,328 6.13% 130 2,119
Teton 40.48% 1,341 53.12% 1,760 6.4% 212 3,313
Toole 34.01% 721 57.03% 1,209 8.96% 190 2,120
Treasure 33.98% 157 54.55% 252 11.47% 53 462
Valley 44.98% 1,749 46.91% 1,824 8.1% 315 3,888
Wheatland 36.79% 365 56.35% 559 6.85% 68 992
Wibaux 27.39% 149 62.32% 339 10.29% 56 544
Yellowstone 47.15% 32,565 46.44% 32,077 6.42% 4,432 69,074

Source:[23]

See also

References

  1. ↑ Johnson, Charles S. (June 19, 2010). "Speculation on 2012 elections in high gear". Billings Gazette. Retrieved November 21, 2010.
  2. ↑ "Montana". The New York Times.
  3. 1 2 Johnson, Charles S. (February 5, 2011). "It's official: Rehberg says he's taking on Tester". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 5, 2011.
  4. ↑ Dennison, Mike (January 19, 2012). "Political unknown drops into U.S. Senate race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 20, 2012.
  5. 1 2 Johnson, Charles S. (February 3, 2011). "Steve Daines Announces 2012 U.S. Senate Run Against Jon Tester". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 3, 2011.
  6. ↑ "Terrorism expert files for Montana governor's race". Associated Press. February 12, 2011. Retrieved February 12, 2011.
  7. ↑ "2012 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Secretary of State of Montana. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
  8. ↑ "Libertarian joins U.S. Senate race". Billings Gazette. March 8, 2012. Retrieved March 9, 2012.
  9. ↑
  10. ↑
  11. 1 2 Mike Dennison (July 15, 2011). "Rehberg raises $900K in 3 months, trails Tester in U.S. Senate money". missoulian.com. Retrieved July 25, 2011.
  12. ↑ Debbas, Jessica (November 13, 2010). "Steve Daines Announces 2012 U.S. Senate Run Against Jon Tester". KTVM-TV. Retrieved November 21, 2010.
  13. ↑ Gouras, Matt (September 30, 2010). "GOP attack ad shows five-fingered Tester shaking Obama's hand". Missoulian TV. Retrieved November 2, 2011.
  14. ↑ McAuliff, Michael (November 11, 2011). "Ad By Crossroads, Karl Rove's Outfit, Yanked Off Air For Being False (UPDATE)". Huffington Post. Retrieved November 12, 2011.
  15. ↑ Drajem, Mark (October 17, 2011). "EPA Says U.S. Rule on Farm Dust Won't Be Tightened After Review". Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved November 12, 2011.
  16. ↑ "U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 112th Congress – 1st Session, Vote No. 157". United States Senate. October 6, 2011. Retrieved November 12, 2011.
  17. ↑ Haberman, Maggie (October 2, 2012). "Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests". Politico.com. Retrieved October 2, 2012.
  18. ↑ Campaign Finances
  19. ↑ Campaign Finances
  20. ↑ OpenSecrets.org web site states "The organizations themselves did not donate, rather the money came from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families."
  21. ↑ [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=MTS1 Center for Responsive Politics
  22. ↑ finances by industry
  23. ↑ "2012 Statewide General Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved 4 February 2016.

External links

Official campaign websites
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