United States Senate election in Missouri, 2012

United States Senate election in Missouri, 2012
Missouri
November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06)
 
Nominee Claire McCaskill Todd Akin Jonathan Dine
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Popular vote 1,484,683 1,063,698 164,991
Percentage 54.8% 39.1% 6.1%

County results
U.S. Senator before election

Claire McCaskill
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Claire McCaskill
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill was unopposed in the Democratic primary and U.S. Representative Todd Akin won the Republican nomination with a plurality in a close three-way race. McCaskill was re-elected to a second term.

Background

In 2006, Claire McCaskill was elected with 49.6% of the vote, narrowly defeating Republican incumbent Jim Talent.

Time featured the race in their Senate article. Similar to other races, the article mentioned how McCaskill was fading in pre-election polls, and she was considered the most vulnerable/endangered Democratic incumbent that year. But Akin's comments about a woman's body preventing pregnancy if it was "legitimate rape" quickly shot McCaskill back up, winning her the election.[1][2][3]

Democratic primary

Incumbent senator Claire McCaskill ran unopposed in the Democratic primary election.

Candidates

Election

100% reporting (3,428 of 3,428 precincts)[6]

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Claire McCaskill (Incumbent) 289,481 100.00
Total votes 289,481 100.00

Republican primary

The Republican primary election for the United States Senate in Missouri, held on August 7, 2012, was one of the three most anticipated of summer 2012. This was due to the projected closeness of the Federal races in the 'Show-Me State' in November 2012, and the potential to change the control of the Senate in January 2013.[7] The primary campaigning by the candidates included many "attack ads" directed at John Brunner and Sarah Steelman at each other, but very few aimed at Todd Akin. Democrat Claire McCaskill, or PACs working on her behalf, also aired negative commercials aimed at her most-likely November opponents. Claire McCaskill's campaign alone spent $1.7 million in ads aiding the Akin campaign.[8] Democrats believed that Todd Akin would be the weakest among the likely challengers for the Senate seat, and ads attacking him as "too conservative" were largely viewed as a veiled support for his nomination.[9][10][11]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Election

100% reporting (3,428 of 3,428 precincts)[6]

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Todd Akin 217,404 36.05
Republican John Brunner 180,788 29.98
Republican Sarah Steelman 176,127 29.20
Republican Jerry Beck 9,801 1.62
Republican Hector Maldonado 7,410 1.23
Republican Robert Poole 6,100 1.01
Republican Mark Memoly 3,205 0.53
Republican Mark Lodes 2,285 0.38
Total votes 603,120 100.00

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Todd
Akin		 John
Brunner		 Sarah
Steelman		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 4–5, 2012 590 ± 4.0% 30% 35% 25% 8%
Mason-Dixon July 23–25, 2012 400 ± 5.0% 17% 33% 27% 19%
Public Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012 430 ± 4.7% 23% 25% 28% 20%
Public Policy Polling January 27–29, 2012 574 ± 4.1% 23% 18% 32% 28%
Public Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 29% 6% 40% 26%

Libertarian primary

Jonathan Dine ran unopposed in the Libertarian primary election.

Candidates

Election

100% reporting (3,428 of 3,428 precincts)[6]

Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Jonathan Dine 2,470 100.00
Total votes 2,470 100.00

General election

Candidates

Debates

The first debate was held on September 21 in Columbia, Missouri and was sponsored by the Missouri Press Association.[34] Topics discussed by the three candidates included the Affordable Care Act, the future of the U.S. Postal Service, the rapid rise of college tuition, and Representative Akin's controversial comments on rape.[35]

The second and final debate was held October 18 in St. Louis. It was sponsored by the Clayton Chamber of Commerce and hosted by television station KSDK, public radio station KWMU and the St. Louis Business Journal.[36]

External links

Rape and pregnancy controversy

While making remarks on rape and abortion on August 19, 2012, Todd Akin made the claim that women victims of what he described as "legitimate rape" rarely experience pregnancy from rape. In an August 19, 2012 interview aired on St. Louis television station KTVI-TV, Todd Akin, the U.S. Representative for Missouri's 2nd congressional district and a candidate for the U.S. Senate seat held by Claire McCaskill, was asked his views on whether women who became pregnant due to rape should have the option of abortion. He replied:

Well you know, people always want to try to make that as one of those things, well how do you, how do you slice this particularly tough sort of ethical question. First of all, from what I understand from doctors, that's really rare. If it's a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down. But let's assume that maybe that didn’t work or something. I think there should be some punishment, but the punishment ought to be on the rapist and not attacking the child.[37]

The comments from Akin almost immediately led to uproar, with the term "legitimate rape" being taken to imply belief in a view that some kinds of rape are "legitimate", or alternatively that the many victims who do become pregnant from rape are likely to be lying about their claim. His claims about the likelihood of pregnancy resulting from rape were widely seen as being based on long-discredited pseudoscience with experts seeing the claims as lacking any basis of medical validity.[38][39][40] Akin was not the first to make such claims, but was perhaps one of the most prominent.[41] While some voices such as Iowa congressman Steve King supported Akin,[42] senior figures in both parties condemned his remarks and some Republicans called for him to resign.[43][44][45] In the resulting furor, Akin received widespread calls to drop out of his Senate race from both Republicans and Democrats.[46] Akin apologized after making the comment, saying he "misspoke", and he stated he planned to remain in the Senate race. This response was itself attacked by many commentators who saw the initial comments as representative of his long-held views, rather than an accidental gaffe.

The comment was widely characterized as misogynistic and recklessly inaccurate, with many commentators remarking on the use of the words "legitimate rape".[47][48][49] Related news articles cited a 1996 article in an obstetrics and gynecology journal, which found that 5% of women who were raped became pregnant, which equaled about 32,000 pregnancies each year in the US alone.[50] A separate 2003 article in the journal Human Nature estimated that rapes are twice as likely to result in pregnancies as consensual sex.[51] (See also pregnancy from rape.)

The incident was seen as having an impact on Akin's senate race and the Republicans' chances of gaining a majority in the U.S. Senate,[52] by making news in the week before the 2012 Republican National Convention and by "shift[ing] the national discussion to divisive social issues that could repel swing voters rather than economic issues that could attract them".[53] Akin, along with other Republican candidates with controversial positions on rape, lost due to backlash from women voters.[54]

Other controversies

On October 20, at a fundraiser, Akin compared McCaskill to a dog. After being criticized, Akin's campaign aide wrote on his official Twitter page that if Claire McCaskill "were a dog, she’d be a ‘Bullshitsu.’" The aide later said that he was joking.[55] Akin was caught on tape commenting that "Sen. Claire McCaskill goes to Washington, D.C., to ‘fetch' higher taxes and regulations."[56]

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Claire McCaskill (D) $10,250,644 $7,689,961 $3,465,846 $0
Todd Akin (R) $2,229,189 $2,229,754 $531,559 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[57][58]

Top contributors

Claire McCaskill Contribution Todd Akin Contribution
EMILY's List $261,390 Emerson $41,700
Simmons Cooper LLC $83,225 Crawford Group $32,750
Express Scripts $81,358 Edward Jones Investments $23,000
Bryan Cave LLP $79,245 American Pulverizer Co $20,000
Husch Blackwell $70,525 Murray Energy $18,605
Washington University in St. Louis $56,510 Essex Industries $18,000
Hallmark Cards $52,000 General Dynamics $18,000
Boeing $50,500 Washington University in St. Louis $17,000
Crawford Group $47,050 Boeing $15,700
Polsinelli Shughart PC $45,250 Patriot Machine $15,000
Source: Center for Responsive Politics[59]

Top industries

Claire McCaskill Contribution Todd Akin Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $1,929,339 Retired $234,936
Retired $626,456 Leadership PACs $126,340
Women's Issues $556,681 Health Professionals $120,050
Entertainment industry $346,715 Defense Contractors $118,900
Financial Institutions $344,960 Manufacturing & Distributing $95,641
Leadership PACs $335,500 Mining $65,880
Lobbyists $279,883 Automotive $65,790
Real Estate $266,844 Republican/Conservative $64,125
Business Services $232,175 Electronics manufacturing services $42,350
Health Services/HMOs $210,533 Financial Institutions $42,250
Source: Center for Responsive Politics[60]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Claire
McCaskill (D)		 Todd
Akin (R)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 2–3, 2012 835 ± 3.4% 48% 44% 6% 2%
SurveyUSA October 28–November 3, 2012 589 ± 4.1% 51% 36% 8% 5%
WeAskAmerica October 30, 2012 1,217 ± 2.9% 49% 45% 6% —
Mason-Dixon October 23–25, 2012 625 ± 4% 45% 43% — 8%
Public Policy Polling October 19–21, 2012 582 ± 4.1% 46% 40% 6% 8%
Rasmussen Reports October 19, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 51% 43% 3% 3%
Wenzel Strategies October 12–13, 2012 1,000 ± 3.7% 45% 49% — 7%
Rasmussen Reports October 3, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 51% 45% 1% 3%
Public Policy Polling October 1–3, 2012 700 ± 3.7% 46% 40% 9% 5%
Kiley & Company September 30, 2012 600 ± 3.5% 50% 41% 2% 7%
We Ask America September 25–27, 2012 1,145 ± 2.9% 46% 45% — 9%
Gravis Marketing September 15–16, 2012 1,959 ± 2.3% 42% 44% — 16%
Wenzel Strategies September 10–11, 2012 850 ± 3.3% 43% 48% — 10%
Rasmussen Reports September 11, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 49% 43% 4% 4%
Public Policy Polling August 28–29, 2012 621 ± 3.9% 45% 44% — 11%
Wenzel Strategies August 27–28, 2012 829 ± 3.3% 42% 45% — 13%
Mason-Dixon August 22–23, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 50% 41% — 9%
Rasmussen Reports August 22, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 48% 38% 9% 5%
Public Policy Polling August 20, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 43% 44% — 13%
Survey USA August 9–12, 2012 585 ± 4.1% 40% 51% 4% 5%
Chilenski Strategies/Missouri Scout August 8, 2012 663 ± 3.8% 47% 48% — 6%
Rasmussen Reports July 30, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 44% 47% 4% 5%
Mason-Dixon July 23–25, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 44% 49% — 7%
Rasmussen Reports June 7, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 42% 50% 2% 7%
Public Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012 602 ± 4.0% 44% 45% — 11%
Rasmussen Reports April 17, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 43% 48% 2% 7%
Rasmussen Reports March 14–15, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 43% 50% 4% 4%
Public Policy Polling January 27–29, 2012 582 ± 4.1% 43% 43% — 14%
Rasmussen Reports November 9, 2011 500 ± 4.5% 47% 45% 5% 3%
Public Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 632 ± 3.9% 45% 43% — 12%
Public Policy Polling April 28–May 1, 2011 555 ± 3.9% 46% 45% — 8%
Public Policy Polling March 3–6, 2011 612 ± 4.0% 45% 44% — 11%

Results

Even though the last poll before the election showed Akin only losing by four percentage points, McCaskill defeated him handily, by a 15.5% margin of victory and a vote margin of 420,985. Both McCaskill and incumbent Governor Jay Nixon, running at the same time, were able to get a large amount of votes from rural parts of the state, something President Barack Obama was not able to do. McCaskill and Nixon were declared the winners of their respective races even before the known big Democratic strongholds of St. Louis, and Kansas City came in. Akin conceded defeat to McCaskill at 10:38 P.M. Central Time.

United States Senate election in Missouri, 2012[61]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Claire McCaskill (Incumbent) 1,484,683 54.71% +5.13%
Republican Todd Akin 1,063,698 39.20% -8.11%
Libertarian Jonathan Dine 164,991 6.08% +3.83%
Write-ins 251 0.01% n/a
Margin of victory 420,985 15.51% +13.24%
Turnout 2,713,623 64.75%

Note: The ±% column reflects the change in total number of votes won by each party from the previous election. Turnout percentage is the portion of registered voters (4,190,936 as of 10/24/2012)[62] who voted.

See also

References

  1. ↑ "The Senate – Much Fury, Little Change", Time, p. 18, November 19, 2012
  2. ↑ Hughes, Siobhan (6 November 2012). "Claire McCaskill Defeats Todd Akin to Win Missouri Senate Seat". Wall Street Journal.
  3. ↑ Eligon, John (7 November 2012). "Turnaround in Missouri as Incumbent Keeps Seat". New York Times.
  4. ↑ Quinn, Kay (November 24, 2010). "Senator Claire McCaskill says Washington more polarized, voters more cynical". KSDK-TV. Retrieved November 24, 2010.
  5. ↑ Lambrecht, Bill (December 23, 2010). "McCaskill: "I will have to work very hard" to get re-elected". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved December 23, 2010.
  6. 1 2 3 "Election Night Reporting". MO Secretary of State. August 8, 2012. Retrieved August 9, 2012.
  7. ↑ Aaron Blake and Sean Sullivan (August 7, 2012). "Primary day: Five things watch for in Missouri, Michigan and Washington". Washington Post. Retrieved August 7, 2012.
  8. ↑ https://investmentwatchblog.com/dem-claire-mccaskill-1-7-million-dollar-manipulation-of-republican-primary-to-help-todd-akin-get-nominated/
  9. ↑ Schultheis, Emily (3 August 2012). "McCaskill ad calls Akin 'too conservative' for Missouri". Politico. Retrieved 22 August 2012.
  10. ↑ http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78737.html
  11. ↑ http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/is-claire-mccaskill-helping-todd-akin-in-the-gop-primary/article_5b4c2bcc-85d0-5893-820e-ebad045fe159.html
  12. ↑ Miller, Sean (May 17, 2011). "Rep. Akin joins Missouri Senate race, setting up primary fight". The Hill. Retrieved May 17, 2011.
  13. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Williams, Kari (May 23, 2012). "Business perspective needed in Washington, Brunner says". Call Newspapers. Retrieved June 8, 2012.
  14. ↑ Wagman, Jake (October 3, 2011). "Frontenac Republican joins Senate race, aims to unseat McCaskill". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved 2012-08-20.
  15. ↑ Miller, Joshua (October 3, 2011). "Brunner Enters Missouri Senate Race". Roll Call. Retrieved 2012-08-20.
  16. ↑ Catanese, David (December 1, 2010). "Inaugural scoop: Steelman files for Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 1, 2010.
  17. ↑ Catanese, David (February 22, 2011). "Emerson to pass on Senate bid". Politico. Retrieved February 23, 2011.
  18. ↑ Wagman, Jake (February 3, 2011). "Sam Graves says no to running for U.S. Senate". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved February 3, 2011.
  19. ↑ Catanese, David (November 18, 2011). "Kinder endorses Dave Spence". Politico. Retrieved 2012-08-20.
  20. ↑ Miller, Joshua (May 13, 2011). "Luetkemeyer Will Not Seek Missouri Senate Bid". Roll Call. Retrieved May 13, 2011.
  21. ↑ D'Aprile, Shane (May 9, 2011). "Missouri Republican Ed Martin shifts to House race instead of Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved May 9, 2011.
  22. ↑ Trygstad, Kyle (March 20, 2012). "Missouri: No Senate Bid for Tom Schweich". Roll Call. Retrieved 2012-08-20.
  23. ↑ Lambrecht, Bill (January 27, 2011). "Talent says no to Missouri Senate bid". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved January 27, 2011.
  24. ↑ Miller, Joshua (April 26, 2011). "Wagner Moves Toward Bid for Akin's Seat in Missouri". Roll Call. Retrieved 2012-08-20.
  25. ↑ Wagman, Jake (April 26, 2011). "Ann Wagner moves toward Congressional run". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved 2012-08-20.
  26. ↑ Miller, Joshua (October 25, 2011). "Ann Wagner Definitively Rules Out Senate Bid". Roll Call. Retrieved 2012-08-20.
  27. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Livingston, Abby (March 29, 2012). "Conservative Senators Pick Sides in Texas, Missouri and Maine Primaries". Roll Call. Retrieved 2012-08-20.
  28. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "Todd Akin's Latest Endorsements | Todd Akin for U.S. Senate 2012 | Missouri". Akin.org. Retrieved 2012-08-20.
  29. ↑ "Governor Palin Endorses Sarah Steelman in Republican Senate Primary". Sarahsteelman.com. July 17, 2012. Retrieved 2012-08-20.
  30. ↑ "2012 Endorsements". Tea Party Express. Retrieved 2012-08-20.
  31. ↑ Sarah Steelman | Missouri Senate | SBA-List
  32. ↑ Yokley, Eli (July 20, 2012). "Cunningham backs Steelman Senate bid". Politicmo.com. Retrieved 2012-08-20.
  33. ↑ "Leaders All Across Missouri and America are Supporting Sarah Steelman for U.S. Senate!". Sarah Steelman. Retrieved 2012-08-20.
  34. ↑ Held, Kevin. "Missouri gubernatorial, U.S. Senate debates this Friday in Columbia". Associated Press. Retrieved 4 October 2012.
  35. ↑ Palosaari, Ben. "The best jabs of the Missouri Senate debate". Pitch News. Retrieved 4 October 2012.
  36. ↑ "Mo. Senate candidates to debate in St. Louis area". Associated Press. Retrieved 4 October 2012.
  37. ↑ Jaco, Charles. "The Jaco Report: August 19, 2012". Fox News. Retrieved 20 August 2012.
  38. ↑ "A Canard That Will Not Die: 'Legitimate Rape' Doesn't Cause Pregnancy". The Atlantic. 19 August 2012. Retrieved 2012-08-21.
  39. ↑ Graham, David A. (August 22, 2012). "Video of the Day: 'Forcible Rape' and Paul Ryan's Akin Problem". The Atlantic. Retrieved 2012-08-25.
  40. ↑ Belluck, Pam (2012-08-21). "Health Experts Dismiss Assertions on Rape". The New York Times. Retrieved 2012-08-21.
  41. ↑ Kliff, Sarah (August 20, 2012). "Rep. Todd Akin is wrong about rape and pregnancy, but he's not alone". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2012-08-22.
  42. ↑ "Rep. Steve King backs up Todd Akin, weighs in on rape and abortion". CBS News. Retrieved 2012-08-29.
  43. ↑ "Leading social conservatives rally to Akin's defense". CNN. 2012-08-20. Retrieved 21 August 2012.
  44. ↑ Seung Min Kim (August 21, 2012). "List of senators calling on Akin to quit keeps growing". Politico. Retrieved 2012-08-22.
  45. ↑ Costa, Robert. "Romney: Akin's Comment 'Inexcusable'".
  46. ↑ Killough, Ashley (August 20, 2012). "GOP chair: Akin should drop out, skip convention". CNN. Retrieved 21 August 2012.
  47. ↑ DiSalvo, David. "Republican Senate Nominee Todd Akin: Victims Of "Legitimate Rape" Don't Get Pregnant". Forbes. Retrieved 20 August 2012.
  48. ↑ Abouhalkah, Yael T. "Todd Akin's rape fantasy". Kansas City Star. Retrieved 20 August 2012.
  49. ↑ Eligon, John (August 19, 2012). "Senate Candidate Provokes Ire With 'Legitimate Rape' Comment". The New York Times. Retrieved 20 August 2012.
  50. ↑ Holmes, Melisa M.; Resnick, Heidi S.; Kilpatrick, Dean G.; Best, Connie L. (1996). "Rape-related pregnancy: Estimates and descriptive characteristics from a national sample of women". American Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology. 175 (2): 320–4; discussion 324–5. doi:10.1016/S0002-9378(96)70141-2. PMID 8765248. Cited in: Blake, Aaron. "Todd Akin, GOP Senate candidate: 'Legitimate rape' rarely causes pregnancy". Washington Post. Retrieved 20 August 2012.
  51. ↑ Gottschall, Jonathan A.; Gottschall, Tiffani A. (2003). "Are per-incident rape-pregnancy rates higher than per-incident consensual pregnancy rates?". Human Nature. 14: 1–20. doi:10.1007/s12110-003-1014-0. Cited in: Robillard, Kevin. "Doctors: Todd Akin pregnancy claim bogus". Politico. Retrieved 21 August 2012.
  52. ↑ Akin Vows to Stay in Race After "Legitimate Rape" Gaffe NBC 10 Philadelphia Scott Ross Monday, Aug 20, 2012 | Updated 6:56 PM EDT
  53. ↑ Akin imbroglio is bad news for Republicans Tom Cohen, CNN updated 3:23 PM EDT, Wed August 22, 2012
  54. ↑ Haberkorn, Jennifer (November 6, 2012). "Abortion, rape controversy shaped key races". Politico.
  55. ↑ http://www.kansascity.com/2012/10/22/3879768/akin-aide-adds-profanity-to-dog.html
  56. ↑ http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82697.html?hp=r6
  57. ↑ Campaign Finances
  58. ↑ Campaign Finances
  59. ↑ "Top Contributors 2012 Race: Missouri Senate". opensecrets.org. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
  60. ↑ "Top Industries 2012 Race: Missouri Senate". opensecrets.org. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
  61. ↑ "Archived copy". Retrieved November 15, 2012.^Federal%20/%20Statewide%20Races^011656688155
  62. ↑ http://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/registeredvoters.asp?rvmID=0012

External links

Official campaign websites
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