Taiwan general election, 2016

Taiwan presidential election, 2016
Taiwan
16 January 2016 (2016-01-16)

Turnout 66.27%
 
Nominee Tsai Ing-wen Eric Chu James Soong
Party Democratic Progressive Kuomintang People First
Alliance Pan-Green Coalition Pan-Blue Coalition None
Running mate Chen Chien-jen
(Independent)
Wang Ju-hsuan
(Independent)
Hsu Hsin-ying
(Minkuotang)
Popular vote 6,894,744 3,813,365 1,576,861
Percentage 56.1% 31.0% 12.8%

Leaders in third-level divisions:
  Tsai-Chen Ticket
  Chu-Wang Ticket
  Soong-Hsu Ticket

President before election

Ma Ying-jeou
Kuomintang

Elected President

Tsai Ing-wen
Democratic Progressive

General elections were held in Taiwan (officially the Republic of China) on Saturday, 16 January 2016 to elect the 14th President and Vice President of the Republic of China, and all 113 members of the 9th Legislative Yuan.[1] Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was elected President with 56% of the vote.

Tsai's party, the Democratic Progressive Party, also secured a majority in the legislature, marking the first time that the DPP can govern alone with over a majority. This was unlike the election of 2000, where the DPP won the presidency but did not receive over 50% of the votes. The election marked the first time the Kuomintang lost its majority in the legislature.

The Central Election Commission reported that turnout for the presidential election was 66.27% of voters, the lowest turnout since the office was first directly elected in 1996.[2]

Electoral system

Presidential candidates and vice-presidential running mates are elected on the same ticket, using first-past-the-post. Due to constitutional two-term limits, incumbent president Ma Ying-jeou was ineligible to seek re-election. This was the sixth direct election of the president and vice president by the citizens of Taiwan, which was previously indirectly elected by the National Assembly prior to 1996.

The 113 members of the Legislative Yuan are elected by a supplementary member system, with 73 from geographical constituencies (General) via first-past-the-post, 6 from two 3-member aboriginal constituencies via single non-transferable vote, and 34 from closed list proportional representation (PR) via a national party vote.

All three presidential candidates announced their running mates in November 2015, and for the first time in Taiwanese electoral history, none of the vice presidential candidates shared the same party affiliation as their corresponding presidential candidates.[3] A record-breaking 556 candidates ran for legislative seats.[4][5]

Presidential candidates

Party primaries

According to article 22 of the President and Vice President Election and Recall Act, any political party that garnered 5% of the national vote in the preceding presidential or legislative election, may directly nominate presidential and vice presidential candidates. Parties fulfilling this criteria in this election include the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Kuomintang (KMT), People First Party (PFP) and Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU).[6]

Democratic Progressive Party

According to internal party protocols, presidential primaries are conducted via nationwide opinion polling.[7] Registration was held between 2 and 16 February 2015. Tsai Ing-wen, party chair and former vice-premier, was the only candidate that registered, and thus nationwide opinion polling that were planned to be conducted between 16 and 18 March 2015 were suspended. Tsai was duly nominated by the DPP on 15 April 2015.[8] On 16 November 2015, Tsai Ing-wen announced former health minister Chen Chien-jen as her running mate, who consequently resigned from his post as deputy director of Academia Sinica.

Kuomintang

According to internal party protocols, presidential primaries are conducted via a combination of party member vote with 30% weighting, and nationwide opinion polling with 70% weighting.[9] Registration and petitions were conducted between 20 April to 18 May 2015. Two candidates, including Hung Hsiu-chu, deputy speaker of the Legislative Yuan;[10][11][12] and Yang Chih-liang, former health minister, registered.[13][14] Hung garnered 35,210 signatories in her petition, crossing the eligibility threshold of 15,000 signatories; while Yang garnered only 5,234 signatories, nullifying his candidacy.[15] The party member vote was suspended because Hung was the only eligible candidate. Nationwide opinion polling were conducted from 12 to 13 June 2015; with equal weighting between approval rating and general election polling. Hung garnered an average of 46.204% in the nationwide polling, crossing the eligibility threshold of 30%, and was nominated on 19 July 2015.[16][17]

However, her nomination was revoked by party chair Eric Chu during an extraordinary party convention on 17 October 2015.[18] Chu subsequently replaced Hung as the presidential candidate of the KMT, and announced former labor minister Wang Ju-hsuan as his running mate. Some have alleged that this process was undemocratic.

People First Party

James Soong, party chair of the PFP, announced his presidential bid on 6 August 2015.[19] He announced Minkuotang (MKT) chair and legislator Hsu Hsin-ying as his running mate in November 2015.[20] The PFP–MKT coalition became the first pair of candidates to register for the election on 23 November 2015.[21]

Taiwan Solidarity Union

Although the Taiwan Solidarity Union was eligible to nominate a presidential candidate, party chair Huang Kun-huei publicly announced on 29 June 2015 that the TSU would not do so, in favor of supporting Tsai Ing-wen's presidential bid.[22][23]

Presidential candidate petition

According to article 22 of the President and Vice President Election and Recall Act, presidential and vice presidential candidates not nominated by an eligible political party, may qualify via a petition signed by at least 1.5% of the number of eligible voters during the preceding legislative election: a threshold of 269,709 eligible voters.[6]

Legislative candidates

Republic of China legislative election, 2016
Taiwan
16 January 2016

All 113 seats to the Legislative Yuan
57 seats needed for a majority
  Majority party Minority party Third party
 
Leader Tsai Ing-wen Eric Chu Huang Kuo-chang
Party Democratic Progressive Kuomintang New Power
Alliance Pan-Green Pan-Blue Third Force
Leader since 28 May 2014 19 January 2015 13 September 2015
Last election 40
District: 44.45%
PR: 34.62%
64
District: 48.12%
PR: 44.55%
New party
District: N/A
PR: N/A
Seats before 40 64 N/A
Seats won 68 35 5
Seat change Increase 28 Decrease 29 Increase 5
Percentage District: 45.08%
PR: 44.04%
District: 38.71%
PR: 26.90%
District: 2.94%
PR: 6.10%

  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader James Soong Lin Pin-kuan
Party People First Non-Partisan Solidarity Union
Alliance None People First
Leader since 31 March 2000 15 June 2007
Last election 3
District: 1.12%
PR: 5.49%
2
District: 1.08%
PR: N/A
Seats before 3 1
Seats won 3 1
Seat change Steady 0 Decrease1
Percentage District: 1.26%
PR: 6.52%
District: N/A
PR: 0.64%

Results (constituency seats only):
  DPP
  KMT
  NPP
  Independent

President of the
Legislative Yuan before election

Wang Jin-pyng
Kuomintang

Elected President of the
Legislative Yuan

Su Jia-chyuan
Democratic Progressive

The two major parties, the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party, used different strategies when nominating candidates for the Legislative Yuan elections. The Kuomintang nominated a candidate in all but one of the constituency seats.[28] The sole exception was Taipei 2, where they instead supported the New Party candidate. The DPP, on the other hand, developed a cooperation strategy with several minor parties. The DPP agreed to support candidates from these parties in exchange for agreements not to stand in tight races where they might sap DPP votes. These included the New Power Party, the Taiwan Solidarity Union, and the Green-Social Democratic Coalition, as well as several independents.[29] This strategy did not work in Hsinchu, where the NPP and DPP backed separate candidates.[30] A total of 43 female candidates won election to the Legislative Yuan, the most ever to take office.[31]

2016 Republic of China legislative election candidates
Party General electorates Aboriginal electorates Party list Total
Kuomintang 72 5 33 110
Democratic Progressive Party 60 2 34 96
Taiwan Solidarity Union 2 15 17
People First Party 6 1 16 23
Non-Partisan Solidarity Union 1 7 8
Minkuotang 13 1 10 24
New Power Party 12 6 18
Green-Social Democratic Coalition[32] 11 6 17
Chinese Unionist Party[33] 14 10 24
Constitutional Conventions of Taiwan 12 6 18
MCFAP 11 1 5 17
Free Taiwan Party[34] 11 6 17
Faith And Hope League 8 2 6 16
Trees Party 11 2 13
National Health Service Alliance 9 1 3 13
Peace Pigeon Union Party 10 3 13
New Party 2 10 12
Taiwan Independence Party 9 1 1 11
Taiwan Labor Party 5 5
People's Democratic Front 2 2
Social Welfare Party 2 2
Pan-Pacific E.P. Union Party 2 2
The Motorists' Party of ROC 1 1
Taiwan Win Party 1 1
Labor Party 1 1
Zheng Party 1 1
Taiwan First Nations Party 1 1
China Production Party 1 1
Independents 66 6 72
Total 354 23 179 556

Opinion polls

Presidential election

Nationwide polling for the Taiwan presidential election of 2016.
Nationwide
Polling organisation Date(s)
administered
Eric Chu
KMT
Tsai Ing-wen
DPP
James Soong
PFP
Undecided
Decision Making Research24 Aug 2015 25.5%41.2%15.0%18.3%
Kuomintang14 Sep 2015 33%43%13%11%
Apple Daily6 Oct 2015 29.28%40.92%15.07%14.73%
Television Broadcasts Satellite7 Oct 2015 29%48%10%13%
Decision Making Research7 Oct 2015 19.0%42.1%14.1%24.8%
Taiwan Indicators Survey Research13 Oct 2015 21.0%44.6%12.0%22.4%
Apple Daily16 Oct 2015 26.23%45.47%12.63%15.67%
Fades Survey Research16 Oct 2015 17.17%40.18%22.39%17.72%
Liberty Times17 Oct 2015 18.91%47.04%7.86%26.19%
Decision Making Research17 Oct 2015 21.9%45.2%13.8%19.1%
Trend Survey Research17 Oct 2015 20.7%41.6%10.1%27.6%
TVBS19 Oct 2015 29%46%10%15%
China Times22 Oct 2015 21.8%38.9%8.8%30.5%
People First Party24 Oct 2015 17%40%23%20%
Taiwan Indicators Survey Research12 Nov 2015 20.4%46.2%10.4%13%
Shih Hsin University Research27 Nov 2015 18.4%44.5%6.8%30.3%
SET News6 Dec 2015 15.7%44.9%13.7%25.7%
TVBS13 Dec 2015 22%45%10%23%
New Taipei City
Television Broadcasts Satellite15 Oct 2015 31%47%14%7%
New Taipei City 6th Constituency
Next Television21 Oct 2015 20.9%49.8%8.1%21.2%
Hsinchu City
Focus Survey Research20 Oct 2015 21.0%46.7%12.9%19.4%
Taichung City
Kuomintang15 Oct 2015 12.8%41.4%8.4%37.4%

Legislative election

Nationwide polling for the Taiwan legislator-at-large election (party vote) of 2016.

Single and multi member districts

Source Date
KMT

DPP

TSU

PFP

MKT

NPP
GP–SD
NP

FTP

IND

Other

Undecided
Trend February 9, 2015 18.5% 31.2% 14.5% 1.4% 34.4%
Trend May 19, 2015 19.1% 25.2% 2.6% 3.8% 0.4% 3.3% 2.1%
SD:0.3%
0.9% 13.4% 3.6% 25.2%
Trend1 July 12, 2015 15.5% 30.7% 1.2% 3.4% 0.7% 14.0% 29.6%
Trend2 July 16, 2015 20.3% 27.8% 0.6% 4.3% 0.8% 12.9% 1.2% 26.9%
Trend3 August 6, 2015 19.9% 25.9% 0.9% 4.9% 1.2% 2.2% 36.7%
Taiwan index September 12, 2015 21.4% 30.9% 0.1% 2.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 1.5% 42.3%
Apple Daily September 14, 2015 30.29% 38.17% 2.11% 8.12% 1.33% 4.53% 15.45%
Trend September 14, 2015 15.9% 31.2% 0.4% 2.1% 0.8% 5.9% 1.4% 0.5% 11.4% 2.5% 27.9%
Trend September 17, 2015 18.3% 29.9% 1.2% 2.4% 0.5% 5.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.3% 3.7% 1.1% 35.2%
Trend September 24, 2015 18.3% 32.6% 1.6% 5.2% 0.5% 5.6% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 2.7% 30.5%
Daily October 16, 2015 31.28% 38.11% 1.93% 4.75% 1.33% 5.94% 1.04% 1.49% 13.68%
TVBS October 19, 2015 30% 30% 1% 1% 2% 1% 35%
Trend October 24, 2015 19.0% 35.0% 1.0% 2.4% 0.8% 4.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 34.4%
Notice Third party (politics)14.5%、2%5.2%、38.1%。

Proportional representation

Opinion Poll
Source Date Kuomintang Democratic Progressive Party Taiwan Solidarity Union People First Party (Republic of China) Minkuotang New Power Party GreenSocial Democratic coalition Free Taiwan Party Other Undecided
Trend March 14, 2015 19.9% 25.7% 4.0% 7.0% 43.4%
Trend1 May 19, 2015 26.7% 33.4% 4.4% 6.6% 0.4% 3.6% Green: 3.3%
SD: 0.9%
4.6% 14.6%
TVBS2 June 1, 2015 24% 29% 3% 4% 0.8% 0.4% Green: 1%

SD: 0.1%

2% 34%
New Realm3 July 9, 2015 18.67% 31.67% 1.61% 5.14% 3.86% Green: 0.80%

SD: 0.32%

1.08% 35.08%
Trend4 July 12, 2015 20.5% 38.2% 3.7% 8.3% 20.1%
Tremd5 July 16, 2015 24.6% 35.6% 4.1% 9.2% 0.4% 16.5%
Decision6 August 9, 2015 24.3% 30.3% 1.8% 6.6% 5.6% 2.6% 27.4%
Freedom Journal August 26, 2015 17.38% 36.71% 1.39% 4.93% 0.28% 1.3% 0.46% 2.42% 35.13%
Taiwan index7 September 12, 2015 22.1% 35.1% 1.9% 7.2% 0.0% 0.3% Green: 1.3%

SD: 0.1%

2.1% 29.9%
Trend September 14, 2015 21.5% 37.6% 4.1% 5.6% 0.8% 6.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.9% 20.4%
Trend September 17, 2015 22.7% 34.2% 3.7% 4.3% 0.7% 5.6% 2.3% 1.6% 0.5% 24.4%
Freedom journal September 23, 2015 17.81% 34.26% 1.54% 3.56% 1.83% 0.19% 40.82%
Trend September 23, 2015 19.7% 34.7% 3.4% 6.9% 0.5% 7.0% 1.7% 2.4% 23.7%
Freedom Journal October 16, 2015 19.01% 33.17% 1.65% 3.2% 0.39% 1.75% 0.10% 40.71%
TVBS October 18, 2015 33% 28% 3% 3% 2% 5% 2% 2% 22%
Trend8 October 24, 2015 21.3% 37.5% 3.0% 7.2% 0.6% 4.7% 2.4% 0.5% 0.3% 22.3%
Shih Hsin University9 October 31, 2015 23.3% 34% 2.3% 4.1% 0.5% 3.1% 30.2%
TVBS December 13, 2015 23% 27% 2% 5% 2% 6% 3% 3% 25%
Notice:

Results

President

Summary of the 16 January 2016 Republic of China presidential election results

 
Party Candidate Votes Percentage
President Vice president
Democratic Progressive Party Tsai Ing-wen Chen Chien-jen 6,894,744 56.12%
 
Kuomintang Eric Chu Wang Ju-hsuan 3,813,365 31.04%
 
People First Party James Soong Hsu Hsin-ying 1,576,861 12.84%
 
Total 12,284,970 100%

County Level Breakdown

2016 Presidential Election Breakdown
County/ City Registered Voters Eric Chu (KMT) Tsai Ing-wen (DPP) James Soong (PFP) Invalid Votes Turnout Margin of
Top 2 Candidates
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Taipei 2,175,986546,49137.4905%757,38351.9582%153,80410.5513%2254068.03%210,892
New Taipei 3,204,367709,37433.3392%1,165,88854.7945%252,48611.8663%2648167.23%456,514
Keelung 306,54868,35735.2876%93,40248.2164%31,95516.4960%243263.99%25,045
Yilan County 369,21159,21625.3817%144,79862.0646%29,28812.5537%318864.05%85,582
Taoyuan 1,627,598369,01334.3874%547,57351.0270%156,51814.5855%1189866.66%178,560
Hsinchu County 412,73194,60335.2817%114,02342.5243%59,51022.1940%380365.89%19,420
Hsinchu 328,58071,77132.4235%113,38651.2236%36,19816.3529%313868.32%41,615
Miaoli County 448,520107,77937.5500%130,46145.4524%48,78816.9976%365264.81%22,682
Taichung 2,138,519430,00529.8181%793,28155.0089%218,81015.1731%1980068.36%363,276
Changhua County 1,022,962193,11728.7951%378,73656.4721%98,80714.7328%1092166.63%185,619
Nantou County 415,12283,60432.0843%136,10452.2320%40,86815.6837%364963.65%52,500
Yunlin County 566,20786,04724.9321%218,84263.4095%40,23611.6584%499761.84%132,795
Chiayi County 430,88565,42523.3822%182,91365.3711%31,46911.2467%429565.93%117,488
Chiayi 210,75838,82227.9514%83,14359.8621%16,92612.1865%149266.61%44,321
Tainan 1,528,246219,19622.0689%670,60867.5175%103,43210.4136%1245765.81%451,412
Kaohsiung 2,254,324391,82326.0044%955,16863.3923%159,76510.6032%1811767.64%563,345
Pingtung County 689,170121,29126.9922%285,29763.4902%42,7689.5176%559566.01%164,006
Taitung County 179,54743,58144.6239%37,51738.4148%16,56516.9614%120855.07%6,064
Hualien County 267,86273,89447.7219%57,19836.9394%23,75115.3388%234258.68%16,696
Penghu County 84,22212,56429.4770%21,65850.8129%8,40119.7100%64351.37%9,094
Kinmen County 111,38624,32766.0970%6,62618.0030%5,85215.9000%59933.58%17,701
Lienchiang County 10,2403,06568.5989%73916.5398%66414.8612%8544.46%2,326
Source
  • Central Election Commission of Taiwan

Legislative Yuan

68 1 5 3 1 35
Democratic Progressive Party I NPP PFP N Kuomintang
Seat composition of the 9th Legislative Yuan
  Vacant
Party Constituency Proportional Total
seats
+/–
Votes % Seats Votes % Seats
Democratic Progressive Party5,416,659 44.59 50 5,370,95344.061868Increase28
Kuomintang4,724,366 38.89 24 3,280,94926.911135Decrease29
People First Party156,212 1.29 0794,8386.5233Steady
New Power Party351,244 2.89 3 744,3156.1125Increase5
New Party75,372 0.62 0510,0744.1800Steady
Green–Social Democratic Coalition203,658 1.68 0308,1062.5300Steady
Taiwan Solidarity Union97,765 0.80 0305,6752.5100Decrease3
Faith and Hope League71,101 0.59 0206,6291.7000Steady
Minkuotang196,180 1.61 0197,6271.6200Decrease1
MCFAP17,070 0.14 087,2130.7200Steady
Non-Partisan Solidarity Union27,690 0.23 1 77,6720.6401Decrease1
Trees Party30,224 0.25 077,1740.6300Steady
Chinese Unionist Party18,812 0.15 056,3470.4600Steady
National Health Service Alliance12,036 0.10 051,0240.4200Steady
Free Taiwan Party18,495 0.15 047,9880.3900Steady
Peace Dove Alliance Party10,318 0.08 030,6170.2500Steady
Taiwan Independence Party7,809 0.06 027,4960.2300Steady
Constitutional Conventions of Taiwan13,518 0.11 015,4420.1300Steady
Others31,693 0.26 0 0Steady
Independent668,441 5.50 1 1 Decrease1
Invalid/blank votes
Total 79 100341130
Registered voters/turnout  
Source: CEC

Chou Tzu-yu flag incident

Chou Tzu-yu, a 16-year-old Taiwanese singer and a member of the South Korean K-pop girl group Twice, attracted attention with her appearance in a South Korean variety show called My Little Television, in which she introduced herself and waved the flag of the Republic of China alongside that of South Korea. Japan's flag was also shown as the other members of the group represented their nationality throughout the show. However, soon after the episode was broadcast it sparked controversy in China when Taiwanese-born China-based singer Huang An accused Chou of being a "pro-Taiwanese independence activist".[37] After the uproar over the issue, the group's record label, JYP Entertainment cancelled all activities of the group in China and released a video where Chou is shown reading an apology, all this the day before the election.[38] She mentioned in part:

"There is only one China. The two shores are one. I feel proud being a Chinese. I, as a Chinese, have hurt the company and netizens’ emotions due to my words and actions during overseas promotions. I feel very, very sorry and guilty."[39]

Nevertheless, many Taiwanese saw her apology as "humiliating and a sign of Taiwan's predicament that Chou had to apologize for expressing her Taiwanese identity and for showing her nation's flag." Tsai in her victory speech also mentioned how it had "angered many Taiwanese people, regardless of their political affiliation." And although it was believed by many that this incident affected the election, contributing to one or two percentage points of Tsai's winning margin,[40] it was thought that the issue probably had a very minor impact on the final outcome since most believed that people would have voted for Tsai anyway. However it is believed that the incident might potentially contribute to Taiwan's desire to become an independent state.[39][41]

See also

References

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