Saxony state election, 2014

Saxony state election, 2014
Saxony
31 August 2014

All 126 seats of the Landtag of Saxony
64 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 49.2%
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Stanislaw Tillich Rico Gebhardt Martin Dulig
Party CDU Left SPD
Last election 58 seats, 40.2% 29 seats, 20.6% 14 seats, 10.4%
Seats won 59 27 18
Seat change Increase 1 Decrease2 Increase4
Popular vote 645,344 309,568 202,374
Percentage 39.4% 18.9% 12.4%
Swing Decrease 0.8% Decrease1.7% Increase2.0%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Frauke Petry Antje Hermenau
Volkmar Zschocke
Holger Szymanski
Party AfD Green NPD
Last election Did not contest 9 seats, 6.4% 8 seats, 5.6%
Seats won 14 8 0
Seat change Increase14 Decrease1 Decrease 8
Popular vote 159,547 93,852 81,060
Percentage 9.7% 5.7% 4.95%
Swing Increase9.7% Decrease0.7% Decrease 0.6%

  Seventh party
 
Leader Holger Zastrow
Party FDP
Last election 14 seats, 10.0%
Seats won 0
Seat change Decrease14
Popular vote 61,847
Percentage 3.8%
Swing Decrease 6.2%

Minister-President before election

Stanislaw Tillich
CDU

Minister-President after election

Stanislaw Tillich
CDU

A state election, as required by the state constitution, was held on 31 August 2014 in the state of Saxony in Germany. Minister-President Stanislaw Tillich sought to retain power.

Background

After the previous state election in 2009, the CDU emerged as the largest party and formed a coalition with the FDP, as opposed to their previous coalition partners, the SPD. Thus, before the 2014 election, the Saxony state government was the only government nationwide that involved the FDP. Due to the national decline in support for the FDP, a continuation of this coalition seemed unlikely as it was uncertain whether the FDP would reach the 5% threshold necessary to gain seats.

The largest opposition party in Saxony was the Left Party. One possible outcome, according to the polls, would have been a coalition between the Left, the SPD and the Greens; however this option was rejected by both the SPD and the Greens before the election.

For the SPD, the state election in Saxony is the second electoral test after the European elections since being involved (from 2013) at the federal level as junior partners in the coalition government. The work of the SPD in government has been perceived as positive in polls. Issues that have been worked on by the government were primarily election promises of the SPD. Despite this, all polls suggested that the SPD would be heading for another third-place finish. In Saxony, the SPD's election campaign was highly tailored to their leading candidate, Martin Dulig, whose campaign was supported his family. Dulig has also been supported by former chancellor Schröder.

The AfD was hoping to gain its first representation in a state parliament in Saxony after the party was able to achieve its strongest results nationwide in both the federal elections and European elections in Saxony. In the European elections, the party in Saxony received over 10% of the vote, compared to 7% nationwide.

In 2004, the far-right NPD secured their best ever result at a state election in Saxony. Since then, polls and election results have trended downwards with most polls suggesting the party would not cross the 5% threshold.

The Pirate Party achieved 1.9% of the vote in the previous state election. Despite early polling showing its support up to as much as 9% in Saxony, the party has since lost support and was averaging around just 2% in surveys.

Coalition talks before election

Polls suggested that the CDU would again be the largest party. The Minister-President Stanislaw Tillich (CDU) was therefore expected to lead coalition negotiations. In addition to the SPD, the Greens hoped for a coalition with the CDU, but a "black-green" coalition was considered unlikely because the Greens oppose coal mining in Saxony.

Prior to the election, Tillich could imagine a coalition with the FDP, the SPD, the Greens and the AfD. For Carsten Linnemann, the chairman of the CDU/CSU-Business Association, a coalition with the Greens was a viable alternative if the FDP did not obtain any seats. Even a coalition with the AfD was not ruled out by Tillich, although the federal head of the CDU had previously spoken out against it.

The Left was unlikely to overtake the CDU, according to polls. The party wanted to form a coalition with the SPD in particular. The SPD, however, were reluctant to critical of such an alliance. The NPD was not considered in the debate on coalitions with other parties.

Opinion polls

Pollster Date CDU Left SPD FDP Greens NPD Pirates AfD Others
FGW 21.08.2014 39% 20% 15% 3% 6% 5% 7% 5%
uniQma 18.08.2014 42% 18% 13% 3% 6% 4% 1% 6% 7%
IM Field 09.08.2014 43% 20% 14% 3% 7% 3% 5% 5%
INSA 09.08.2014 40% 19% 14% 5% 5% 4% 6% 6%
dimap 10.07.2014 42% 21% 13% 4% 7% 3% 7% 3%
Forsa 20.06.2014 42% 18% 15% 3% 6% 3% 8% 5%
uniQma 13.06.2014 45% 16% 13% 3% 6% 3% 2% 7% 5%
dimap 30.04.2014 43% 18% 16% 4% 6% 4% 6% 3%
dimap 29.03.2014 45% 17% 15% 4% 6% 4% 6% 3%
INSA 08.03.2014 43% 22% 15% 2% 5% 1% 7% 2%
uniQma 02.01.2014 49% 15% 17% 2% 6% 1% 2% 6% 2%
dimap 20.08.2013 45% 14% 14% 5% 11% 3% 3% 5%
Emnid 09.04.2013 43% 19% 16% 5% 7% 4% 4% 2%
TNS Infratest 08.09.2012 41% 19% 16% 4% 7% 3% 7% 3%
dimap 05.09.2012 44% 15% 16% 5% 8% 2% 4% 6%
Emnid 15.03.2012 43% 18% 14% 2% 10% 2% 9%
IfM Leipzig 16.10.2011 44% 17% 12% 2% 11% 3% 8%
dimap 24.08.2011 43% 19% 12% 6% 11% 5% 4%
aproxima 28.06.2011 42% 21% 15% 6% 8% 3% 5%
aproxima 24.08.2010 42% 23% 16% 5% 7% 4% 3%
IfM Leipzig 14.06.2010 40% 20% 16% 6% 12% 3% 3%
2009 results 30.08.2009 40.2% 20.6% 10.4% 10.0% 6.4% 5.6% 1.9% 4.9%

Results


< 2009    Next >

 Summary of the 31 August 2014 Landtag of Saxony elections results
Party Popular vote Seats
Votes % +/– Seats +/–
Christian Democratic Union
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – CDU
645,344 39.4 Decrease0.8 59 Increase1
Left
Die Linke
309,568 18.9 Decrease1.7 27 Decrease2
Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – SPD
202,374 12.4 Increase2.0 18 Increase4
Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland – AfD
159,547 9.7 Increase9.7 14 Increase14
Alliance '90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
93,852 5.7 Decrease0.7 8 Decrease1
National Democratic Party of Germany
Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands – NPD
81,060 5.0
(4.95)
Decrease0.6 0 Decrease8
Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei – FDP
61,847 3.8 Decrease6.2 0 Decrease14
Other parties 83,776 5.1 Decrease1.7 0 Steady
Valid votes 1,637,364 98.7 Increase0.5
Invalid votes 22,281 1.3 Decrease0.5
Totals and voter turnout 1,659,645 49.2 Decrease3.0 126 Decrease6
Electorate 3,375,734 100.00
Source: Wahlrecht.de

Government formation

The CDU formed a coalition with the SPD, as their former coalition partner, the FDP failed to win any seats.[1] Tillich ruled out a coalition with the AfD.[2]

References

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