Post-election pendulum for the Victorian state election, 1999

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the Victorian state election, 1999.

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Labor Seats   Liberal-National Seats
  Seat Margin Swing   Seat Margin Swing
  Broadmeadows 24.7 -0.4        
  Thomastown 23.9 +1.9        
  Coburg 21.8 +4.9   Malvern 16.6 +1.0
  Sunshine 20.2 +1.1   Murray Valley 15.9 +6.5
  Preston 18.6 +3.3   Rodney 15.7 +10.5
  Williamstown 18.5 +2.9   Brighton 15.6 +2.5
  Footscray 17.6 -1.8   Wimmera 1 15.1 *
  Richmond 16.2 -1.1   Hawthorn 14.1 -0.5
  Northcote 16.1 -3.8   Kew 13.8 +1.2
  Mill Park 15.8 +1.9   Warrandyte 13.5 +0.4
  Pascoe Vale 14.9 +3.8   Doncaster 13.3 +1.7
  Altona 14.7 +6.5   Glen Waverley 13.2 +2.5
  Melbourne 13.8 -2.1   Sandringham 12.5 +1.8
  Keilor 11.9 +0.3   Wantirna 11.9 +1.2
  Clayton 11.7 +2.1   Bulleen 11.6 +3.0
  Werribee 11.5 +0.8   Mooroolbark 10.9 +1.3
  Melton 11.3 -0.9   Frankston 10.7 +4.7
  Bendigo West 11.3 +9.1   Polwarth 10.7 -2.6
  Geelong North 10.9 +2.8   Evelyn 9.5 +3.2
  Springvale 10.8 +2.9   Warrnambool 8.8 +5.0
  Morwell 8.9 +6.2   Caulfield 8.5 +0.8
  Essendon 8.5 +5.1   Box Hill 7.6 +2.7
  Dandenong North 8.0 +5.8   Gippsland South 7.5 +11.9
  Gippsland East 2 7.7 *   Benalla 7.4 +7.9
  Niddrie 6.8 +2.4   Knox 7.3 +0.6
  Albert Park 6.4 -2.4   Forest Hill 7.1 +3.4
  Mildura 3 6.1 *   Benambra 7.1 +7.9
  Bundoora 6.1 +3.5   Burwood 6.8 +1.8
  Dandenong 5.8 +2.4   Pakenham 6.5 +4.6
  Ivanhoe 5.4 +3.9   Dromana 6.2 +1.9
  Frankston East 4.6 +7.7   Bennettswood 6.1 +3.1
  Yan Yean 4.2 +2.6   Mornington 5.7 +5.6
  Gippsland West 4 3.9 *   Cranbourne 5.7 +3.4
  Tullamarine 3.8 +7.0   Berwick 5.0 +0.4
  Ballarat East 3.7 +4.7   South Barwon 4.7 +5.5
  Oakleigh 3.3 +3.4   Bayswater 4.7 +2.8
  Bendigo East 2.9 +7.9   Portland 4.5 +5.9
  Ripon 2.6 +7.2   Shepparton 5 4.1 *
  Narracan 2.5 +4.1   Prahran 4.0 +0.6
  Gisborne 1.6 +9.4   Eltham 3.6 +3.3
  Ballarat West 1.0 +5.8   Monbulk 3.2 +2.0
  Seymour 0.7 +4.9   Swan Hill 6 2.8 *
  Mitcham 0.5 +5.8   Mordialloc 2.2 +2.5
  Carrum 0.2 +1.3   Bentleigh 1.9 +2.8
  Geelong 0.0 +3.5   Bellarine 1.7 +3.8

Notes

Seats which changed hands are shown in bold.

A plus (+) sign in front of a swing figure indicates a swing towards Labor and a minus (-) sign indicates a swing to the Liberal-National parties.

1 No swing figure is available for this seat due to the lack of a Labor versus Liberal-National margin at the previous election.
2 The margin for this seat is Independent (Craig Ingram) over National.
3 The margin for this seat is Independent (Russell Savage) over Liberal.
4 The margin for this seat is Independent (Susan Davies) over Liberal.
5 The margin for this seat is National over Independent (Chris Hazelman).
6 The margin for this seat is National over Independent (Carl Ditterich).

References

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