Galician parliamentary election, 2012

Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Galicia (Spain)
21 October 2012

All 75 seats in the Parliament of Galicia
38 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 2,697,717 Increase1.9%
Turnout 1,481,379 (54.9%)
Decrease9.5 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo Pachi Vázquez Xosé Manuel Beiras
Party PPdeG PSdeG–PSOE AGE
Leader since 15 January 2006 25 April 2009 4 September 2012
Leader's seat Pontevedra Ourense A Coruña
Last election 38 seats, 46.7% 25 seats, 31.0% 0 seats, 1.0%[lower-alpha 1]
Seats won 41 18 9
Seat change Increase3 Decrease7 Increase9
Popular vote 661,281 297,584 200,828
Percentage 45.8% 20.6% 13.9%
Swing Decrease0.9 pp Decrease10.4 pp Increase12.9 pp

  Fourth party
 
Leader Francisco Jorquera
Party BNG
Leader since 15 January 2012
Leader's seat A Coruña
Last election 12 seats, 16.0%
Seats won 7
Seat change Decrease5
Popular vote 146,027
Percentage 10.1%
Swing Decrease5.9 pp

President before election

Alberto Núñez Feijóo
PPdeG

Elected President

Alberto Núñez Feijóo
PPdeG

The 2012 Galician parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 21 October 2012, to elect the 9th Parliament of Galicia, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Galicia. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with a regional election in the Basque Country.

This was a snap election held several months before scheduled. Incumbent President Alberto Núñez Feijóo stood for re-election for a 2nd consecutive term in office, running for the People's Party (PP). For the Socialists' Party of Galicia (PSdeG-PSOE) ran its Secretary-General Pachi Vázquez. Former congressman Francisco Jorquera ran for the left-wing Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG), while former BNG leader Xosé Manuel Beiras, stood for Galician Left Alternative (AGE), a newly formed left-wing alliance between United Left and Anova, Beiras' split party from BNG.

The election resulted in a surprise result for both Núñez Feijóo, who enlarged his absolute majority from 38 and 41 seats, and Beiras' coalition AGE, which won 200,000 votes and 14% of the share, scoring in third position. In contrast, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party obtained one of the worst results in the history of the party in Galicia. All in all, the enlarged PP majority came as a result of the enormous fragmentation of the left vote within several parties, as Feijóo's party lost almost 130,000 votes from 2009.

Electoral system

The 75 members of the Parliament of Galicia were elected in 4 multi-member districts, corresponding to Galicia's four provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation. Each district was entitled to an initial minimum of 10 seats, with the remaining 35 seats being allocated among the four provinces in proportion to their populations. For the 2012 election, seats were distributed as follows: Corunna (24), Lugo (15), Ourense (14) and Pontevedra (22).

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 5% of the total vote in each district (which includes blank ballotsfor none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution.[1]

Background

The election was held amid a climate of falling popularity in Mariano Rajoy's government, with the electoral campaign being heavily marked by the austerity measures approved by the People's Party government. In July 2012, a 65 billion euros worth spending cut and a VAT rise from 18% to 21% was passed; such measures being heavily criticised because they were a breach of a key election promise.[2][3] The PP vote share immediately plummeted in opinion polls from 40% to 34%. This raised fears within Núñez Feijóo's regional government about the possibility of losing the party's absolute majority in the Galician Parliament election scheduled for early 2013.[4]

On 21 August 2012, Basque premier Patxi López announced that he was bringing forward the Basque election date to 21 October 2012, after the People's Party had announced that it was withdrawing its support to López' Socialist government in the Basque Country.[5] As a result, President Feijóo announced that he was calling the election earlier in order for it to coincide with the Basque election.[6]

Opinion polling

Party vote

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork/
publication date
Sample
size
TO Lead
Regional Election 21.10.12 N/A 54.9% 45.8 20.6 10.1 1.5 13.9 1.0 1.1 25.2
Sondaxe 16-10-12–19.10.12 ? ? 44.3 26.4 11.5 1.9 10.9 0.8 0.5 17.9
Sondaxe 15-10-12–18.10.12 ? ? 46.1 25.2 11.6 1.4 10.2 1.2 0.5 20.9
Sondaxe 14-10-12–17.10.12 ? ? 47.1 25.2 11.9 1.6 8.7 1.1 0.6 21.9
Sondaxe 13-10-12–16.10.12 ? ? 47.7 25.1 11.7 1.5 8.4 1.4 0.6 22.6
Sondaxe 12-10-12–15.10.12 ? ? 48.3 25.0 11.9 0.8 9.0 1.3 0.6 23.3
Ipsos 14.10.12 1,400 62.7% 46.4 25.8 13.3 2.5 4.3 1.7 1.0 20.6
Sondaxe 11-10-12–14.10.12 ? ? 48.5 24.5 12.3 0.9 9.6 0.6 0.6 24.0
Sondaxe 10-10-12–13.10.12 ? ? 47.6 24.2 13.8 1.0 9.7 0.6 0.6 23.4
NC Report 01-10-12–13.10.12 1,000 59.3% 45.1 27.0 14.0 6.2 18.1
Sondaxe 09-10-12–12.10.12 ? ? 46.9 24.6 13.5 0.9 8.9 0.6 0.6 22.3
Sondaxe 08-10-12–11.10.12 ? ? 49.3 25.2 12.6 0.5 7.6 1.0 0.6 24.1
Sigma Dos 08-10-12–11.10.12 1,200 ? 50.5 21.4 13.1 8.7 1.8 29.1
Sondaxe 07-10-12–10.10.12 ? ? 47.0 25.0 12.7 0.9 6.9 0.8 0.9 22.0
My Word 03-10-12–10.10.12 1,200 ? 42.2 21.5 13.9 3.1 7.8 1.8 1.6 20.7
Sondaxe 06-10-12–09.10.12 ? ? 46.4 25.7 13.3 1.0 6.4 0.9 0.9 20.7
Sondaxe 05-10-12–08.10.12 ? ? 47.3 24.1 15.1 0.9 5.4 1.3 0.7 23.2
NC Report 07.10.12 ? ? 42.4 27.3 12.9 15.1
Sondaxe 04-10-12–07.10.12 ? ? 45.7 25.3 15.2 0.9 6.2 0.9 0.6 20.4
Sondaxe 03-10-12–06.10.12 ? ? 45.4 27.2 16.0 0.8 4.9 1.4 0.6 18.2
Sondaxe 02-10-12–05.10.12 1,600 ? 44.3 26.0 15.8 0.7 5.0 1.1 1.1 18.3
DYM 01-10-12–04.10.12 816 ? 49.0 22.3 13.3 10.9 1.8 26.7
NC Report 30.09.12 ? ? 42.7 25.6 11.2 17.1
CIS 08-09-12–25.09.12 3,956 ? 44.1 28.2 15.6 1.0 4.6 15.9
NC Report 23.09.12 ? ? 43.4 26.1 10.9 17.3
Low Cost 17-09-12–23.09.12 1,000 61.5% 45.1 28.5 12.0 2.3 6.5 16.6
NC Report 16.09.12 ? ? 41.0 27.7 11.7 13.3
NC Report 09.09.12 ? ? 39.5 27.3 10.9 12.2
Sondaxe 31-08-12–05.09.12 1,700 55.8% 43.4 26.4 11.5 6.1 17.0
NC Report 28.08.12–01.09.12 592 54.9% 40.6 28.4 11.9 4.1 4.4 5.0 3.1 12.2
Sondaxe 12.04.12–14.04.12 1,700 54.6% 46.1 26.9 13.3 2.9 19.2
General Election 20.11.11 N/A 62.2% 52.5 27.8 11.2 1.2 4.1 24.7
Municipal Elections 22.05.11 N/A 69.5% 44.9 26.0 16.5 1.9 18.9
Sondaxe 14.02.11–23.02.11 3,600 65.3% 48.8 25.9 15.1 22.9
Sondaxe 18.11.10–30.11.10 3,600 68.8% 48.7 27.1 14.9 21.6
Sondaxe 19.01.10–27.01.10 1,200 69.6% 47.9 26.6 14.6 21.3
EP Election 07.06.09 N/A 43.3% 50.0 35.3 9.1 1.2 1.3 14.7
Regional Election 01.03.09 N/A 64.4% 46.7 31.0 16.0 1.4 1.0 15.7

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 38 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Galicia.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork/
publication date
Regional Election 21.10.12 41 18 7 0 9 0 0
Ipsos-Eco Consulting 21.10.12 39/42 18/20 7/8 0 8/10 0 0
Sondaxe 16-10-12–19.10.12 39 20 8 0 8 0 0
Sondaxe 15-10-12–18.10.12 40 20 8 0 7 0 0
Sondaxe 14-10-12–17.10.12 41 20 8 0 6 0 0
Sondaxe 13-10-12–16.10.12 40 21 9 0 5 0 0
ASCA 15.10.12 44 16/17 8/9 0 5/6 0 0
Infortécnica 15.10.12 36/38 20/22 12/14 0 2/4 0/1 0/1
PP 15.10.12 37 23 11 0 2 0 2
Sondaxe 12-10-12–15.10.12 40 21 9 0 5 0 0
Ipsos 14.10.12 37/41 22/24 9/11 0 3/4 0 0
Sondaxe 11-10-12–14.10.12 40 21 9 0 5 0 0
Sondaxe 10-10-12–13.10.12 39 21 10 0 5 0 0
NC Report 01-10-12–13.10.12 38/39 23 11 0 2/3 0 0
Sondaxe 09-10-12–12.10.12 39 21 10 0 5 0 0
Sondaxe 08-10-12–11.10.12 41 21 9 0 4 0 0
Sigma Dos 08-10-12–11.10.12 41/44 17/19 9 0 5/6 0 0
Sondaxe 07-10-12–10.10.12 40 21 9 0 5 0 0
My Word 03-10-12–10.10.12 37/38 19/20 11/12 0 6/7 0 0
Sondaxe 06-10-12–09.10.12 40 22 10 0 3 0 0
Sondaxe 05-10-12–08.10.12 41 20 11 0 3 0 0
Sondaxe 04-10-12–07.10.12 39 21 11 0 4 0 0
PSdeG 06.10.12 37 23 9/10 0 5/6 0 0
Sondaxe 03-10-12–06.10.12 39 23 12 0 1 0 0
Sondaxe 02-10-12–05.10.12 39 22 12 0 2 0 0
DYM 01-10-12–04.10.12 40/41 18/19 8 0 7 1 0
PSdeG 03.10.12 37 25 9/10 0 3/4 0 0
CIS 08-09-12–25.09.12 38 23/24 12/13 0 1 0 0
NC Report 23.09.12 37/39 23/25 7/8 0/2 2/4 1/2 0
Low Cost 17-09-12–23.09.12 39/41 24 8/9 0 3/4 0 0
NC Report 16.09.12 36/38 24/26 9/10 0/1 3 0 0
NC Report 09.09.12 35/37 24/26 9/10 0/2 3 0 0
Sondaxe 31-08-12–05.09.12 39 24 9 0 3 0 0
NC Report 28.08.12–01.09.12 34/37 24/25 10 0/2 1/2 2 0
ASCA 02.07.12 35/36 23/24 7 0/1 1/2 7
ASCA 10.05.12 36/38 23 7 0/1 0/1 7
Sondaxe 12.04.12–14.04.12 41 24 10 0 0
General Election 20.11.11 (44) (23) (8) (0) (0)
Sondaxe 14.02.11–23.02.11 42 21/22 11/12 0 0
Sondaxe 18.11.10–30.11.10 40 23 12 0 0
Sondaxe 19.01.10–27.01.10 40 23 12 0 0
EP Election 07.06.09 (42) (27) (6) (0) (0)
Regional Election 01.03.09 38 25 12 0 0

Results

Overall

Summary of the 21 October 2012 Galician Parliament election results
Party Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Won +/−
People's Party of Galicia (PPdeG) 661,281 45.80 –0.88 41 +3
Socialists' Party of Galicia (PSdeG–PSOE) 297,584 20.61 –10.41 18 –7
Galician Left Alternative (United LeftAnova) (AGE)[lower-alpha 1] 200,828 13.91 +12.94 9 +9
Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG) 146,027 10.11 –5.90 7 –5
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 21,335 1.48 +0.07 0 ±0
Blank Seats (EB) 17,141 1.19 New 0 ±0
Civil Society and Democracy (SCD) 15,990 1.11 New 0 ±0
Commitment to Galicia (CxG) 14,586 1.01 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 38,448 2.66 +1.00
Total 1,443,848 100.00 75 ±0
Valid votes 1,443,848 97.47 –1.64
Invalid votes 37,531 2.53 +1.64
Votes cast / turnout 1,481,379 54.91 –9.52
Abstentions 1,216,338 45.09 +9.52
Registered voters 2,697,717
Source: Argos Information Portal
  1. 1 2 Galician Left Alternative results are compared to EU–IU totals in the 2012 election.
Vote share
PPdeG
 
45.80%
PSdeG–PSOE
 
20.61%
AGE
 
13.91%
BNG
 
10.11%
UPyD
 
1.48%
EB
 
1.19%
SCD
 
1.11%
CxG
 
1.01%
Others
 
2.12%
Blank ballots
 
2.66%
Parliamentary seats
PPdeG
 
54.67%
PSdeG–PSOE
 
24.00%
AGE
 
12.00%
BNG
 
9.33%

Results by district

District PPdeG PSdeG AGE BNG
% S % S % S % S
A Coruña 45.4 13 18.8 5 16.6 4 9.6 2
Lugo 51.5 9 22.7 4 10.3 1 8.7 1
Ourense 49.2 8 23.7 4 7.8 1 8.5 1
Pontevedra 42.8 11 20.8 5 14.4 3 11.9 3
Total 45.8 41 20.6 18 13.9 9 10.1 7

Aftermath

Investiture vote

First round: 29 November 2012
Absolute majority (38/75) required
Candidate: Alberto Núñez Feijoo
Choice Vote
Parties Votes
YesYes PP (41)
41 / 75
No PSdeG–PSOE (18), AGE (9), BNG (7)
34 / 75
Abstentions
0 / 75
Source: Historia Electoral

References

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