Enlargement of the Eurasian Economic Union

Eurasian Economic Union

This article is part of a series on the
politics and government
of the Eurasian Economic Union

The future enlargement of the Eurasian Economic Union is theoretically open to any post-Soviet state and potentially any country of Europe or Asia. The present agenda of the enlargement of the Eurasian Economic Union is primarily focused on Tajikistan.[1] The process of enlargement is referred to as Eurasian integration. This term is also used to refer to the intensification of economic cooperation between Eurasian Economic Union member states.

Past enlargement

Armenia

In December 2012, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan stated that EU, CIS and Eurasian integration need not be mutually exclusive.[2] Maja Kocijancic, a spokeswoman for the EU High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton, responded that "if Armenia were to join any customs union, this would not be compatible with concluding a bilateral Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Armenia because a customs union has a common external trade policy and an individual member country no longer has sovereign control over its external trade policies."[3]

Although Armenia completed its negotiations with the European Union (EU) about signing an Association Agreement in July 2013,[4] on 3 September 2013, President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan announced in Moscow that Armenia will join the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia. A Russian government communique stated that, "Armenia [has] decided to join the Customs Union and take the necessary practical steps to subsequently participate in the formation of the Eurasian Economic Union."[5] This decision was widely described as a "U-turn" by the Western media.[6][7] On 2 October 2013, Sargsyan stated at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe session that Armenia was ready to sign a deal with the EU during the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius in November 2013, without the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area component of the agreement that contradicts Armenia's membership in the EurAsEC Customs Union.[8][9] This proposal was rejected by the EU and no deal was signed between Armenia and the EU at the summit.[8][10][11] On 9 October 2014 Armenia signed a treaty on its accession to the EEU and became the newest member state on 2 January 2015.[12]

Although Armenia’s trade with EU states far exceeds that with EurAsEC Customs Union members Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan combined, Armenia is dependent on Russia for security.[9] Armenia's alliance with Russia is seen by Armenia as a counterbalance to Azerbaijan’s sharp hike in military spending (Azerbaijan bought tanks, artillery cannons and rocket launchers worth billions of US dollars from Russia in 2011, 2012 and 2013).[9][13] This is seen by Armenia as a threat given that the Nagorno-Karabakh War (an armed conflict that took place from 1991 to May 1994 de facto between Armenia and Azerbaijan) remains unresolved.[9] Russia also has a military base in Armenia.[9]

Support and opposition

According to a poll conducted by Gallup International Association in October 2013, 64% of Armenians are in favor of Armenia's membership in the union.[14] Of the six factions in the Armenian National Assembly, five have stated their support or their lack of opposition to the Armenian government's decision to join the union.[15] Levon Ter-Petrosyan, Armenia's First President and the leader of the opposition Armenian National Congress, stated during a rally on 1 March 2014 that the decision is irreversible.[16] In a October 2014 rally Ter-Petrosyan reiterated that Armenia's membership is an "irreversible process" and is now a fait accompli. "He never said that the entry is profitable. Instead, he accused those who oppose it of 'adventurism'." He "cited the example of the events in Ukraine, which has lost a lot due to its failure to agree to join the 'New USSR', and the same could also happen to Armenia." Ter-Petrosyan stated: "Is it really so hard to understand that in such a situation our country would simply disappear from the world map? ... Even the West treats Armenia's decision with understanding, while a group of people here are trying to prove the opposite and push for an anti-Russian movement."[17]

Among the most notable opponents of Armenia's membership to the union are the four former foreign affairs ministers: Raffi Hovannisian (1991–92),[18] Vahan Papazyan (1993–96), Alexander Arzumanyan (1996-98) and Vartan Oskanian (1998-2008).[19] Hovannisian, who officially came second in the 2013 presidential election, stated that Armenia's accession to the union "limits its sovereignty."[18] Hovannisian's Heritage party is the only political party in the National Assembly that opposes Armenia's membership in the union.[15] Other significant politicians who have stated their opposition include former Prime Minister Aram Sargsyan[20] and Soviet dissident Paruyr Hayrikyan.[21] Former Prime Minister Hrant Bagratyan, although not actively opposing the union, stated that Armenia is an "exclave" of the union and is not a "welcomed guest" there.[22]

Kyrgyzstan

In October 2011, the acting prime minister of Kyrgyzstan announced that his country will join the union, and that the process had been agreed to with the prime ministers of the other member states.[23] On 11 August 2014, the Kyrgyz president Almazbek Atambayev, met with Russian president Vladimir Putin and stated that Kyrgyzstan plans to join the Eurasian Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union by the end of 2014.[24] Kyrgyzstan signed an accession treaty on 23 December 2014.[25][26][27] It ratified it's accession treaty in May 2015, and it came into force on 6 August 2015, when it became the newest member state.[28]

Potential future enlargement

Azerbaijan

The Azerbaijani minister for the Economy, stated that the country is not prepared to join the union.[29] Azerbaijan's foreign minister reiterated those statements by clarifying that joining the EEU was not currently on the country's agenda. The foreign minister however also reaffirmed the "warm and friendly relations between Russia and Azerbaijan based on mutual respect and mutually beneficial cooperation" [30]

Azerbaijan's ambassador to Belarus also stated that Armenia's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union would not infringe upon the interests of Azerbaijan. He further stated “for our partners, as well as Azerbaijan, the union opens up great promises. It increases the market by several times and opens up great opportunities for our partners. We are optimistic about the future of this union.” He also expressed hope that the number of participants of the union will increase in the near future.[31]

Georgia

In September 2013, during an interview, the Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili was open to the possibility of Georgia joining the Customs Union "if it will be advantageous for our country".[32] He later clarified that Georgia's main strategy was still to integrate into the European Union.[33][34] Russia's Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev included Georgia as a prospective member in statements made in August 2013.[35]

Georgia signed a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the EU in 2014, meaning it has affirmed to move towards EU standards, customs regulations, quality controls and free market competition.[36][37] In response, Sergei Glazyev, a Russian presidential adviser, claimed it was now unlikely that Georgia could become a member of the Eurasian Economic Union.[38]

In December 2015, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin stated that, "Moscow was ready to restore diplomatic relations with Tbilisi."[39] A mutual visa-free system between Georgia and Russia was discussed, as part of the effort to reintroduce relations.[40] In a March 18 interview, foreign minister Mikheil Janelidze said that further integration with the European Union, possible membership in NATO and restoring its international recognized borders are “red lines” in talks with Russia. He also said that, "This [bilateral] dialogue [with Russia] is oriented to find ways to have relations in those areas which are not out of the red lines."[41]

Iran

Iran has expressed interest in joining the EEU.[42] During a meeting between Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, they discussed the prospect of corporation between the customs union and Iran. According to the Iranian Ambassador based in Russia, Mehdi Sanaei, Iran is focusing on signing an agreement with the EEU in 2015 regarding mutual trade and reduction of import tariffs to central Asian countries and trading in national currencies as part of the agreement rather than in USD (US dollars).[43] Iran and Russia have also expanded bilateral relations and agreements between each other recently, in terms of mutual trade, energy, exports, agriculture, military and recourses.[44]

Israel

In October 2016, Russian Ambassador to Armenia Ivan Volynkin said that the signing of a trade deal between Russia and Israel, one similar to between Russia and Vietnam, was being discussed.[45]

Moldova

The Moldovan government rejected the idea of Eurasian Economic Union and instead signed a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the EU in 2014.[37][46] Furthermore, the Moldovan government is actively pursuing EU membership.[47]

On 2 February 2014, the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia in Moldova held two referendums on European integration. In one, 98.4% voted in favor of joining the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, while in the second 97.2% opposed further integration with the EU. 98.9% also supported the proposition that Gagauzia could declare independence if Moldova unified with Romania.[48] There is concern in Gagauzia that Moldova's integration with the EU could lead to such a unification with EU member Romania, which is unpopular in the autonomous region.[49]

Mongolia

In September 2016, the press service of the Eurasian Economic Commission issued a statement after a meeting attended by Chairman of the Board of the Union Tigran Sargsyan and Ambassador of Mongolia to Russia Banzragch Delgermaa that Mongolia was considering seeking membership in the Eurasian Economic Union.[50][51]

Syria

In July 2015, Syrian Prime Minister Wael Halqi said that "Negotiations with Russia on joining the Eurasian Union and customs-free zone are being held. We see this as a benefit and strengthening the relations with friendly states, which will facilitate economic and trade cooperation with them."[52]

Tajikistan

Tajikistan plans to join the Customs Union.[53] The country has signed the CIS Free Trade Zone Agreement and is close to ratifying the treaty. A border dispute with EEU member Kyrgyzstan has arisen as a potential obstacle.[54]

Turkey

A statement by the Kazakhstan Presidential Office on the 6 June 2014 said that Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev had extended an invitation to the President of Turkey Abdullah Gül for his country to join the Eurasian Economic Union.[55] The statement was released the day after the fourth summit of the Cooperation Council of Turkic-Speaking States (Turkic Council) on June 4 and 5 in the Turkish port city of Bodrum. However Turkey presently has a customs agreement with the EU.

Ukraine

Poroshenko on stage speaking to Euromaidan protesters on 8 December 2013

Membership in the Customs Union

The former president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, stated in November 2010 and March 2012 that Ukraine may join the Customs Union in the future, but that the Constitution of Ukraine did not presently allow them to join.[56][57] However, he also stated in April 2010 that Ukraine would not join the Customs Union.[58] During this time, Ukraine was negotiating an Association Agreement with the European Union[59] which was seen by the EU as being incompatible with Ukraine entering the Customs Union; the latter would end the chances for the AA according to European Commission President José Manuel Barroso.[60] Yanukovych at the time stated he wanted to pursue EU membership for Ukraine.[60] In May 2011 Yanukovych stated that Ukraine was "searching for mechanisms of cooperation that will allow us to work with the customs union to the extent which Ukrainian laws and our obligations to world organizations such as the World Trade Organization allow”.[60] Yanukovych would later say that he was in negotiations with Russia to "find the right model" for cooperation with the Customs Union, while simultaneously trying to get Ukraine's agreements with the EU on free trade and political association signed by the EU.[61][62][63][64] He also expressed hope that the AA with the EU would be signed in 2013.[65]

Then Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov stated in December 2012 that Ukraine could and should cooperate with both the Customs Union and the European Union at the same time.[66] In January 2013 President Yanukovych stated that he had cancelled a visit to Moscow in December 2012 because his country was not yet ready to join the Customs Union.[67] He further stated that Ukraine was trying to meet the legal requirements of the customs union without harming other international accords and that "experts from both sides [Ukraine and Russia] are currently working on this issue". However, he did not commit Ukraine to joining the union.[67] Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the leader of Batkivshchyna, Ukraine's second largest party, was against Ukraine joining the Customs Union.[68] He stated in December 2012 that "Ukraine's joining the Customs Union means the restoration of the Soviet Union in a slightly different form and with a different name. But this means that the country will become a part of the Russian Empire. We know history. We have been there and we don't want to return there".[69]

On 25 February 2013 President of the European Commission Barroso made it again clear "One country cannot at the same time be a member of a customs union and be in a deep common free-trade area with the European Union".[61] In March 2013 Ukraine and the EU initialled their AA with the EU, which still needed to be signed and ratified before its entry into force.[70] Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's parliament) Volodymyr Rybak stated on 7 March 2013 "the Customs Union issue is not being discussed".[71]

A December 2012 poll by Democratic Initiatives Foundation and Razumkov Center, 32% supported Ukraine's accession to the Customs Union.[72]

Observer status of the Customs Union

Negotiations on granting Ukraine observer status in the Customs Union took place in April/May 2013.[73][74] This status would give Ukraine the right to attend meetings, join the preparation of documents but excludes the right to vote.[75] An association agreement to grant Ukraine an "observer" status was signed on 31 May 2013 in Minsk.[76] Ukraine's status as an observer state was said to not conflict with its then planned AA with the EU.[76] Prime Minister Mykola Azarov stated on 7 June 2013 that "very favorable terms", including "a sharp reduction in gas price and the cancellation of crude oil export duties", had been offered to Ukraine for its accession to the Customs Union, but stressed that its membership of the World Trade Organization, and associated agreements, prevented Ukraine from joining the Customs Union.[77] This status would be abrogated if Ukraine enters the European Union.

Signature of their Association Agreement with the EU

Yanukovych eventually refused to sign the AA in November 2013,[78] which led to protests that lead to his ousting in February 2014.[79] The new government of Ukraine and the EU signed the AA on 21 March and 27 June 2014.[37][79] On 30 June 2014 Russian presidential aide (for developing the Customs Union)[80] Sergei Glazyev stated that the signing of the EU Association Agreements by Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia meant that they could not join the Customs Union or the Common Economic Space. He described it as "a significant loss for us".[38]

People’s Republic of Donetsk

The pro-Russian separatists of the War in Donbass rejected Ukrainian EU integration (seeing it as a threat to their interests).[36] One of the results of the War in Donbass was the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk[78] which has expressed an interest in acceding to the Customs Union.[81]

Uzbekistan

Senate Speaker Ilgizar Sobirov, head of the Uzbekistan parliament's upper chamber, showed support in joining the Russian-led trade bloc on November 12, 2013 after meeting a delegation from the Russian parliament's upper chamber.[82]

However, on May 29, 2014, Uzbekistan's president Islam Karimov criticized the union on the basis of loss of sovereignty and expressed his opposition to the project.[83]

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