Clive Granger

Sir Clive William John Granger (/ˈɡreɪndʒər/; 4 September 1934 – 27 May 2009) was a British economist, who taught in Britain at the University of Nottingham and in the United States at the University of California, San Diego. In 2003, Granger was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, in recognition that he and his co-winner, Robert F. Engle, had made contributions to the analysis of time series data that had changed fundamentally the way in which economists analyse financial and macroeconomic data.^[1]

Biography

Early life

Clive Granger was born in 1934 in Britain, in Swansea, south Wales, the son of Edward John Granger and Evelyn Granger.^[2] The next year his parents moved to Lincoln.

During World War II Granger moved with his mother to Cambridge, where he went to the local primary started secondary school in Cambridge, but continued in Nottingham, where his family moved after the war. During school, Granger showed talent for mathematics, developing a strong interest in applied mathematics.

After secondary school Granger enrolled at the University of Nottingham for a joint degree in economics and mathematics, but switched to full mathematics in the second year. After receiving his BA in 1955, he remained at the University of Nottingham for a PhD in statistics under the supervision of Harry Pitt.

In 1956, at only 21, Granger was appointed a junior lecturer in statistics at the University. As he was interested mainly in applied statistics and economics Granger chose as the topic of his doctoral thesis time series analysis, a field in which he felt that relatively little work had been done at the time.^[2] In 1959 he obtained his PhD with a thesis on "Testing for Non-stationarity".

Academic life

Granger spent the next academic year, 1959–60, in the USA at Princeton University under a Harkness Fellowship of the Commonwealth Fund. He had been invited to Princeton by Oskar Morgenstern to participate in his Econometric Research Project. Here, Granger worked with Michio Hatanaka as assistants to John Tukey in a project to use Fourier analysis on economic data.

At the end of the year in Princeton, Granger got married, and spent the honeymoon in a trip across the US.

In 1964 Granger and Hatanaka published the results of their research in a book on Spectral Analysis of Economic Time Series (Tukey had encouraged them to write this themselves, as he was not going to publish the research results.)^[2] Granger also wrote in 1963 an article on "The typical spectral shape of an economic variable", which appeared in 1966 in Econometrica. Both the book and the article proved influential in the adoption of the new methods.

Granger also became a full professor at the University of Nottingham.

In a 1969 paper in Econometrica, Granger also introduced his concept of Granger causality.

After reading, in 1968, a pre-print copy of the time series book by George Box and Gwilym Jenkins,^[3] Granger became interested in forecasting. For the next few years to follow he worked on this subject with his post-doctoral student, Paul Newbold; and they wrote a book which became a standard reference in time series forecasting (published in 1977). Using simulations, Granger and Newbold also wrote the famous 1974 paper on spurious regression; which led to a re-evaluation of previous empirical work in economics and to the econometric methodology.^[4]

In all, Granger spent 22 years at the University of Nottingham. In 2005, the building that houses the Economics and Geography Departments was renamed the Sir Clive Granger Building in honour of his Nobel achievement.

In 1974 Granger moved to the United States, to the University of California at San Diego. In 1975 he participated in a US Bureau of Census committee chaired by Arnold Zellner on seasonal adjustment. At UCSD, Granger continued his research on time series, collaborating closely with Nobel prize co-recipient Robert Engle (whom he helped bring to UCSD), Roselyne Joyeux (on fractional integration), Timo Teräsvirta (on nonlinear time series) and others. Working with Robert Engle, he developed the concept of cointegration, introduced in a 1987 joint paper in Econometrica;^[5] for which he was awarded the Nobel prize in 2003.

Granger also supervised many PhD students, among whom was Mark Watson (co-advisor with Robert Engle).^[6]

In later years, Granger also used the time series methods to analyse data outside economics. Thus, he worked on a project concerned with the Amazon rainforest and built a model to forecast deforestation. The results were published in a 2002 book.^[7] Granger retired from UCSD in 2003 as a Professor Emeritus. He was a Visiting Eminent Scholar of the University of Melbourne and Canterbury University.

Granger was married to Patricia (Lady Granger) from 1960 until his death. He is survived by their son, Mark William John, and their daughter, Claire Amanda Jane.^[2]

Granger died on 27 May 2009, at Scripps Memorial Hospital in La Jolla, California.^[8]

Honors and awards

In 2003 Granger and his collaborator Robert Engle were jointly awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. He was made a Knight Bachelor in the New Year's Honours in 2005.^[9]

Granger was a fellow of the Econometric Society since 1972 and a Corresponding Fellow of the British Academy since 2002. He was voted in 2004 in the 100 Welsh Heroes.

See also

• Gabor–Granger method
• Granger causality

Publications

• Granger, C. W. J. (1966). "The typical spectral shape of an economic variable". Econometrica. 34 (1): 150–161. doi:10.2307/1909859. JSTOR 1909859. 
• Granger, C. W. J. (1969). "Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods". Econometrica. 37 (3): 424–438. doi:10.2307/1912791. JSTOR 1912791. 
• Granger, C. W. J.; Bates, J. (1969). "The combination of forecasts". Operations Research Quarterly. 20 (4): 451–468. doi:10.1057/jors.1969.103. 
• Granger, C. W. J.; Hatanaka, M. (1964). Spectral Analysis of Economic Time Series. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-04177-6. 
• Morgenstern, Oskar; Granger, Clive W. J. (1970). Predictability of stock market prices. Lexington, Massachusetts: Lexington Books (D. C. Heath and Company). pp. xxiii+303. 
• Granger, C. W. J.; Joyeux, R. (1980). "An introduction to long-memory time series models and fractional differencing". Journal of Time Series Analysis. 1: 15–30. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9892.1980.tb00297.x. 
• Granger, C. W. J.; Newbold, P. (1974). "Spurious regressions in econometrics". Journal of Econometrics. 2 (2): 111–120. doi:10.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7. 
• Granger, C. W. J.; Newbold, P. (1977). Forecasting Economic Time Series. Academic Press. 
• Engle, Robert F.; Granger, C. W. J. (1987). "Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing". Econometrica. 55 (2): 251–276. doi:10.2307/1913236. JSTOR 1913236. 

References

External links

• Winner page on the official Nobel Foundation website
• More maths good for economy – Nobel laureate
• Sir Clive Granger – Daily Telegraph obituary
• Clive W. J. Granger (1934– ). The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics. Library of Economics and Liberty (2nd ed.). Liberty Fund. 2008. 

Laureates of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences
1969–1975	1969 Ragnar Frisch / Jan Tinbergen 1970 Paul Samuelson 1971 Simon Kuznets 1972 John Hicks / Kenneth Arrow 1973 Wassily Leontief 1974 Gunnar Myrdal / Friedrich Hayek 1975 Leonid Kantorovich / Tjalling Koopmans
1976–2000	1976 Milton Friedman 1977 Bertil Ohlin / James Meade 1978 Herbert A. Simon 1979 Theodore Schultz / Arthur Lewis 1980 Lawrence Klein 1981 James Tobin 1982 George Stigler 1983 Gérard Debreu 1984 Richard Stone 1985 Franco Modigliani 1986 James M. Buchanan 1987 Robert Solow 1988 Maurice Allais 1989 Trygve Haavelmo 1990 Harry Markowitz / Merton Miller / William F. Sharpe 1991 Ronald Coase 1992 Gary Becker 1993 Robert Fogel / Douglass North 1994 John Harsanyi / John Forbes Nash Jr. / Reinhard Selten 1995 Robert Lucas Jr. 1996 James Mirrlees / William Vickrey 1997 Robert C. Merton / Myron Scholes 1998 Amartya Sen 1999 Robert Mundell 2000 James Heckman / Daniel McFadden
2001–present	2001 George Akerlof / Michael Spence / Joseph E. Stiglitz 2002 Daniel Kahneman / Vernon L. Smith 2003 Robert F. Engle / Clive Granger 2004 Finn E. Kydland / Edward C. Prescott 2005 Robert Aumann / Thomas Schelling 2006 Edmund Phelps 2007 Leonid Hurwicz / Eric Maskin / Roger Myerson 2008 Paul Krugman 2009 Elinor Ostrom / Oliver E. Williamson 2010 Peter A. Diamond / Dale T. Mortensen / Christopher A. Pissarides 2011 Thomas J. Sargent / Christopher A. Sims 2012 Alvin E. Roth / Lloyd S. Shapley 2013 Eugene Fama / Lars Peter Hansen / Robert J. Shiller 2014 Jean Tirole 2015 Angus Deaton 2016 Oliver Hart / Bengt Holmström