Next Japanese general election

48th Japanese general election

on or before 13 December 2018

All 475 seats to the House of Representatives of Japan: 295 first-past-the-post in single-member districts, 180 by d'Hondt proportional in 11 regional blocs

	First party	Second party	Third party

Leader	Shinzō Abe	Renhō	Natsuo Yamaguchi
Party	Liberal Democratic	Democratic	Komeito
Leader since	26 September 2012	1 October 2016	8 September 2009
Leader's seat	Yamaguchi-4th	not contesting (Coun.)	not contesting (Coun.)
Last election	291 seats 48.1% (district) 33.11% (block)	New	35 seats 1.5% (district) 13.71% (block)
Seats before	290 seats	97 seats	35 seats

	Fourth party	Fifth party

Leader	Kazuo Shii	Ichirō Matsui
Party	Communist	Initiatives
Leader since	24 November 2000	2 November 2015
Leader's seat	Minami-Kantō PR	not contesting (Gov. of Osaka)
Last election	21 seats 13.3% (district) 11.37% (block)	New
Seats before	21 seats	15 seats

Parliamentary districts not including proportional blocks

Prime Minister before election

Shinzō Abe
Liberal Democratic

Prime Minister-designate

TBD

Japan

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The 48th general election of members of the House of Representatives (第48回衆議院議員総選挙, dai-yonjūhachikai Shūgiin giin sōsenkyo) is due to take place on or before 13 December 2018, a barring by Constitution of Japan. Voting will take place in all Representatives constituencies of Japan – 295 single-member districts and eleven proportional blocks –, in order to appoint all 475 members of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the 717-member bicameral National Diet of Japan. As the cabinet has to resign after a general House of Representatives election in the first post-election Diet session (Constitution, Article 70), the lower house election will also lead to a new designation election of the prime minister in the Diet, and the appointment of a new cabinet (even if the same ministers are re-appointed).

Date of the election

Under the post-occupation interpretation of Article 7 of the Constitution, the cabinet may instruct the Emperor to dissolve the House of Representatives before the end of term at will. Elections must be held within 40 days after dissolution.

The only time in postwar history that the House of Representatives was not dissolved before the end of its term was in 1976. If the House of Representatives completes a full four-year term, the election must be held within 30 days before that. Under certain conditions if the Diet is in session or scheduled to open at that time, the election could take place somewhat beyond the actual end of term under the "public offices election act" (kōshokusenkyohō).^[1]

As of June 2015, the Democratic Party of Japan was reportedly preparing a roster of up to 250 candidates so as to be prepared in the event that the next general election is held alongside the scheduled House of Councillors election in the summer of 2016.^[2]

Polling

Parties' approval ratings since last GE

Date	Polling Firm/Source	LDP	DP	K	JCP	PJK	SDP	LP	IO	AEJ	Oth.	No party	Und.
Date	Polling Firm/Source										Oth.	No party	Und.
8-10 Oct	NHK	37.1	9.9	3.9	3.9	0.0	1.1	0.1	1.1		0.2	37.8	4.9
7-9 Oct	Yomiuri Shimbun	40	7	3	3	0	1	0	2		1	39	4
9-11 Sep	Yomiuri Shimbun	46.0	8.0	3.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	3.0		1.0	31.0	2.0
9-11 Sep	NHK	40.2	8.3	4.3	2.5	0.2	0.4	0.0	1.9		0.2	36.0	6.1
4-6 Mar	Yomiuri Shimbun	37.0	8.0	3.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0		0.0	43.0	2.0
12-14 Feb	Yomiuri Shimbun	42.0	7.0	3.0	3.0		0.0		1.0		0.0	40.0	3.0
5-7 Feb	NHK	37.6	9.6	3.6	3.9	0.2	0.2	0.0	1.6		0.1	35.1	7.4
30-31 Jan	Yomiuri Shimbun	40.0	7.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0		0.0	39.0	3.0
9-11 Jan	NHK	37.5	8.1	4.3	4.2	0.0	0.6	0.3	1.9	0.0	0.2	33.1	9.4
8-10 Jan	Yomiuri Shimbun	40.0	8.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0		0.0	37.0	4.0
2016
17-18 Dec	Yomiuri Shimbun	37.0	9.0	5.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	2.0		0.0	39.0	0.0
11-13 Dec	NHK	37.5	8.5	4.7	5.0	0.0	0.5	0.1	1.8		0.2	34.3	7.0
4-6 Dec	Yomiuri Shimbun	36.0	7.0	3.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	4.0		0.0	43.0	2.0
6-8 Nov	Yomiuri Shimbun	40.0	7.0	3.0	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0		0.0	39.0	2.0
6-8 Nov	NHK	37.1	8.4	3.4	4.1	0.0	0.5	0.3	1.1		0.1	36.3	8.2
10-12 Oct	NHK	35.6	8.6	3.3	4.2	0.2	0.9	0.3			0.1	35.7	10.3
7-8 Oct	Yomiuri Shimbun	39.0	10.0	3.0	3.0		1.0	0.0			0.0	39.0	1.0
19-20 Sep	Yomiuri Shimbun	33.0	11.0	3.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	1.0		0.0	0.0	42.0	3.0
11–13 Sep	NHK	34.7	9.8	3.7	4.0	0.1	0.6	0.2			0.6	36.2	9.0
15-16 Aug	Yomiuri Shimbun	37.0	10.0	3.0	4.0		1.0	0.0			0.0	39.0	3.0
7–9 Aug	NHK	34.3	10.9	3.0	4.2	0.2	0.7	0.0			0.1	34.5	9.6
24-26 Jul	Yomiuri Shimbun	36.0	8.0	3.0	5.0		0.0	0.0			0.0	41.0	3.0
18–19 Jul	Asahi Shimbun	31.0	9.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0			0.0	41.0	7.0
11–12 Jul	Asahi Shimbun	32.0	8.0	4.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	0.0			0.0	38.0	10.0
10–12 Jul	NHK	34.7	7.7	4.2	3.3	0.1	0.7	0.4			0.1	36.8	9.5
3-5 Jul	Yomiuri Shimbun	35.0	9.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	1.0				0.0	44.0	1.0
20–21 Jun	Asahi Shimbun	36.0	7.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0			0.0	41.0	7.0
5-7 Jun	Yomiuri Shimbun	38.0	7.0	3.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0	42.0	2.0
5–7 Jun	NHK	35.8	9.4	3.6	4.4	0.0	0.9	0.0			0.2	33.9	9.3
16–17 May	Asahi Shimbun	39.0	7.0	3.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			1.0	33.0	10.0
8-10 May	Yomiuri Shimbun	43.0	10.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0			0.0	35.0	2.0
8–10 May	NHK	37.5	7.8	5.3	3.5	0.0	0.8	0.2			0.0	34.7	8.4
18–19 Apr	Asahi Shimbun	36.0	7.0	4.0	5.0	0.0	1.0	0.0			0.0	34.0	10.0
10–12 Apr	NHK	37.8	9.2	4.1	4.8	0.2	0.9	0.1			0.3	29.2	9.9
3-5 Apr	Yomiuri Shimbun	41.0	7.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0			0.0	40.0	1.0
14–15 Mar	Asahi Shimbun	38.0	8.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0			1.0	37.0	8.0
6–8 Mar	NHK	36.7	10.9	3.8	4.6	0.0	1.6	0.3			0.3	31.8	8.1
28 Jan-28 Feb	Yomiuri Shimbun	43.0	9.0	4.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	1.0			0.0	30.0	1.0
14–15 Feb	Asahi Shimbun	40.0	7.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0			1.0	35.0	7.0
6–8 Feb	NHK	41.2	10.3	4.9	4.2	0.1	0.7	0.0			0.1	29.7	6.5
6-7 Feb	Yomiuri Shimbun	42.0	11.0	3.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0			0.0	35.0	1.0
17–18 Jan	Asahi Shimbun	33.0	9.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0			1.0	38.0	7.0
10–12 Jan	NHK	39.4	9.2	4.0	3.7	0.4	0.8	0.1			0.2	31.9	7.7
9-11 Jan	Yomiuri Shimbun	41.0	8.0	3.0	5.0	0.0	1.0	0.0			0.0	38.0	1.0
2015
24-25 Dec	Yomiuri Shimbun	36.0	11.0	5.0	6.0	0.0	1.0	0.0			1.0	32.0	3.0
15–16 Dec	Asahi Shimbun	35.0	7.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0			1.0	33.0	12.0
14 Dec 2014	General Election	33.1	18.3	13.7	11.4	2.7	2.5	1.9	N/A	N/A	0.7	N/A	N/A

Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PM	Approval	Disapproval	No Opinion
Date	Polling Firm/Source	PM
9-11 Sep	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	62%	29%	9%
9-11 Sep	NHK	Shinzo Abe	57%	26%	17%
4-6 Mar	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	49%	40%	11%
12-14 Feb	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	52%	36%	12%
5-7 Feb	NHK	Shinzo Abe	50%	34%	16%
30-31 Jan	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	56%	34%	9%
9-11 Jan	NHK	Shinzo Abe	46%	35%	19%
8-10 Jan	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	54%	36%	9%
2016
17-18 Dec	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	49%	39%	12%
11-13 Dec	NHK	Shinzo Abe	46%	36%	18%
4-6 Dec	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	48%	40%	12%
6-8 Nov	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	51%	38%	11%
6-8 Nov	NHK	Shinzo Abe	47%	39%	14%
10-12 Oct	NHK	Shinzo Abe	43%	40%	17%
7-8 Oct	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	46%	45%	8%
19-20 Sep	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	41%	51%	8%
11–13 Sep	NHK	Shinzo Abe	43%	39%	18%
15-16 Aug	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	45%	45%	10%
7–9 Aug	NHK	Shinzo Abe	37%	46%	17%
24-26 Jul	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	43%	49%	8%
18–19 Jul	Asahi Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	37%	46%	17%
11–12 Jun	Asahi Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	39%	42%	19%
10–12 Jul	NHK	Shinzo Abe	41%	43%	16%
3-5 Jul	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	49%	40%	10%
20–21 Jun	Asahi Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	39%	37%	24%
5-7 Jun	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	53%	36%	10%
5–7 Jun	NHK	Shinzo Abe	48%	34%	18%
16–17 May	Asahi Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	45%	32%	23%
8-10 May	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	58%	32%	10%
8–10 May	NHK	Shinzo Abe	51%	32%	17%
18–19 Apr	Asahi Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	44%	35%	21%
10–12 Apr	NHK	Shinzo Abe	51%	34%	15%
3-5 Apr	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	57%	35%	8%
14–15 Mar	Asahi Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	46%	33%	21%
6–8 Mar	NHK	Shinzo Abe	46%	37%	17%
28 Jan-28 Feb	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	56%	36%	8%
14–15 Feb	Asahi Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	50%	31%	19%
6–8 Feb	NHK	Shinzo Abe	54%	29%	17%
6-7 Feb	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	58%	34%	8%
17–18 Jan	Asahi Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	42%	37%	21%
10–12 Jan	NHK	Shinzo Abe	50%	32%	18%
9-11 Jan	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	53%	38%	9%
2015
24-25 Dec	Yomiuri Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	49%	41%	10%
15–16 Dec	Asahi Shimbun	Shinzo Abe	43%	34%	23%
5–7 Dec	NHK	Shinzo Abe	47%	38%	15%
2014

References

↑ MIC/e-gov legal database: 公職選挙法, chapter 5 (election dates), article 31 (general elections)
↑ "民主、衆参同日選も想定　年内に候補者170人擁立めざす". Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 6 June 2015. Retrieved 8 June 2015.

Elections in Japan

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